Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    This op run is seriously tooth pulling !

    I'm expecting MUCH more of the same over the next 12 weeks lol. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    8 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

    What does this mean in normal meteorological terms for us no brainers hahaha it sounds really complicated and even the best of us are struggling with all the changes this winter 

    I also struggled with it. What I took from it, nothing is yet settled, we might get snow and we might not ha

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think it means coldies are in with a shout!  But also highlights the uncertainties that any kind of medium to long range predictions are frought with.  So watch the drama unfold right here...❄️ or 💧

    Tbh its more negative than it is positive. It states she doesn't agree with Catacol about us staying in an atmospheric nino state as tropical convection would have to move further east and increase as seasonal wavelengths change deeper into winter but as it currently stands we're in the game. Just adding a lot of caution to assume things carry on as well as they are as we still need the dice to fall right 

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
    3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Tbh its more negative than it is positive. It states she doesn't agree with Catacol about us staying in an atmospheric nino state as tropical convection would have to move further east and increase as seasonal wavelengths change deeper into winter but as it currently stands we're in the game. Just adding a lot of caution to assume things carry on as well as they are as we still need the dice to fall right 

     

    Screenshot_20201208-231904_Firefox.jpg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Tbh its more negative than it is positive. It states she doesn't agree with Catacol about us staying in an atmospheric nino state as tropical convection would have to move further east and increase as seasonal wavelengths change deeper into winter but as it currently stands we're in the game. Just adding a lot of caution to assume things carry on as well as they are as we still need the dice to fall right 

    Yes, that is how i read it, we are in the game, but uncertainty,  given it’s a glass half empty post, i think it is fair to say.  Not sure how much deeper into winter we can get, the 21st isn’t that far away.  However, I think the strat element was underplayed or largely missing.  But it is all interesting... We will see...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, lamppost watcher said:

     

    Screenshot_20201208-231904_Firefox.jpg

    😂😂 well its Tamaras but the other point to take is there is so much goes off with the weather it can surprise you for the good or better. My own opinion is well have a colder snowier second half to winter 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, that is how i read it, we are in the game, but uncertainty,  given it’s a glass half empty post, i think it is fair to say.  Not sure how much deeper into winter we can get, the 21st isn’t that far away.  However, I think the strat element was underplayed or largely missing.  But it is all interesting... We will see...

    She believed we wouldn't get as much wave breaking further into winter as we have now. Basically saying we need to hope what's going on now breaks the strat

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I think that this first premise is unfair. Maybe it is because so far the atmosphere has not responded in a typical La Niña way. As for the tropics, it does look like eastward propagation may occur regarding MJO progression and the strat is already being affected by wave activity - how long or strong this is may depend on the tropical influences and subsequent mid latitude wave responses to this. 

    As ever, Tamara it would be wonderful if you could temper your posts for the masses and not for the few, in order that the majority of the posters hear can benefit from your wisdom, without having to resort to guesswork as to what you may mean. Most here just want to know whether a cold spell is likely or not and I suspect many are none the wiser after reading your post. As am I. Kindest regards. 

    I think i worked it out the clue was 39n and that's were the jet stream heading due south spain flood gates opened😅 ❄️:santa-emoji:

    gfsnh-5-384.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS 18z T264:

    37DBAD6F-C7A1-44CF-9A23-8C85DA200879.thumb.png.9a2952ad35a0db85fc092ee85db87311.png

    This run has now gone totally off the rails with lows and shortwaves all over the place in the Atlantic.  But the bigger picture is interesting, the vortex seems to be in 4 or 5 pieces and none of them over Greenland!!  

    Look how far south the azores high is, jet getting pushed further and further south. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    She believed we wouldn't get as much wave breaking further into winter as we have now. Basically saying we need to hope what's going on now breaks the strat

    Well it won’t will it?  We do need more, and provided the trop vortex remains in a mess we should get more, but maybe that is what was behind the MO winter forecast, it is a worry not having the MO on board, I will be very interested to see the GloSea5 December output in a couple of days, for sure, I think something might have changed since Nov update, hope, we will see...

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    19 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

    Sometimes the best posts are from the ones who convert their vast knowledge into layman terms so the average enthusiast can at least have a chance of understanding what the heck knows is going on👍

    There isn’t layman speak when it comes to this, you can’t simplify advanced meteorology which is crucial to outlook.  It falls on others to try acquire knowledge instead of being spoon fed every answer. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it won’t will it?  We do need more, and provided the trop vortex remains in a mess we should get more, but maybe that is what was behind the MO winter forecast, it is a worry not having the MO on board, I will be very interested to see the GloSea5 December output in a couple of days, for sure, I think something might have changed since Nov update, hope, we will see...

    Chances are no but we don't know the answer to that yet. This is her opinion. The weather makes mugs of everyone including the met office. We could get better help from the tropics. The thing to take into account is with the damage already done its not going to take much more to knock it off its perch. We just have to wait and see and enjoy trying to work it out and improve our knowledge along the way 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Yes and that's another top post from Tamara... She is very professional in her manner, and I can understand how some may get confused by her very big words.. Bit like seeing a specialist with an health with problem, only for you to come out of the room still wandering whats wrong with you.. 🤣 But that's her style and she does a remarkable job with it. Seriously guys and gals she's fab to talk to in private and very helpful. And I feel that she thinks the current EC46 data could possibly be onto something... Its all subject to change at the drop off an hat though, nothing is set in stone... And I must admit I feel privelaged that Tams posts on here with all that knowledge.. Not just to single her out though... Catacol, chio, Steve M and yourself Scott do a grand job with your analysis.. Many others too, so sorry if I've missed you out. Makes this forum the great read it his.. 

    Wow.... That was emotional... I now need a ly down... 🤣

    Agreed. Im a massive fan of Tamara. She's excellent in what she does. So is Catacol Chio and Steve though. Its just fantastic to have all these views on this website and all these smart minds

     

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Chances are no but we don't know the answer to that yet. This is her opinion. The weather makes mugs of everyone including the met office. We could get better help from the tropics. The thing to take into account is with the damage already done its not going to take much more to knock it off its perch. We just have to wait and see and enjoy trying to work it out and improve our knowledge along the way 

    So you are backtracking from your SSW end Dec early Jan prediction now, Scott?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    So you are backtracking from your SSW end Dec early Jan prediction now, Scott?

    No not at all. Ive stuck with it thats my prediction. Its too far out to say this won't happen. We will soon see us move into MJO phase 6 sometime in the 3rd week of December and im pinning my hopes on us creating some wave disruption from this that will start a chain reaction to bring down the strat the last few days of December into January. Ive seen some growing support for this from the likes of Amy Butler but its a 40% chance for me. Even if not this time the strat is primed later in the season but this is where Tamara view differs down the line on whether we can get a 3rd bite of the cherry 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    No not at all. Ive stuck with it thats my prediction. Its too far out to say this won't happen. We will soon see us move into MJO phase 6 sometime in the 3rd week of December and im pinning my hopes on us creating some wave disruption from this that will start a chain reaction to bring down the strat the last few days of December into January. Ive seen some growing support for this from the likes of Amy Butler but its a 40% chance for me. Even if not this time the strat is primed later in the season but this is where Tamara view differs down the line on whether we can get a 3rd bite of the cherry 

    I’m with you on it actually, I’ve got 6th Jan 2013 in my mind for some reason now, I should go back and check some charts from then when i have a moment.  We will see...

    Edit - wow 5000 posts!

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I’m with you on it actually, I’ve got 6th Jan 2013 in my mind for some reason now, I should go back and check some charts from then when i have a moment.  We will see...

    Edit - wow 5000 posts!

    Some posts from what in January sorry Mike youve lost me hahaha 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Good morning.

     

    Still no sign of an Atlantic ridge for game, set and match but nice looking UKMO 144

    UN144-21.GIF?09-05

     

    Atlantic lows are going to disrupt certainly but the issue is that the cold air can be locked to the North of the disruption as we saw with GFS 18z.

    A lot will depend on the Arctic high if we can't get a ridge while we have the N blocking.

     

     

    As I post GFS 192 disrupting the Atlantic low SE 192. Can we get a ridge? Can the arctic high meander toward Greenland?

    Lovely looking split regardless.

    gfsnh-0-192.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Surely we will be getting the Holy grail winter charts soon in the reliable tineframe Gfs is certainly getting closer to that, even if it's in fl, far cry to the usual crud we see in the NH profile in December

    Edited by SLEETY
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    43 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    It wouldn't take much adjustment would it?

    So far GFS ensembles have just shown a few colder runs in deep FI, ECM 12z ensembles were a little better but both seem to be trending the right way.

    GFS 264 and Atlantic locked out with cold uppers from the NE getting tantalisingly close.

    gfsnh-0-264.pnggfsnh-1-264.png

     

    And ladies and Gentlemen and pronouns, your first Christmas day chart of 2020

    gfsnh-0-384.png

     

    As with the whole GFS run it is full of promise.

    I'm not sure how this run managed to keep the cold uppers locked right on the NE coast for week but maybe it is better to see these frustrating runs than the eye candy until things ae more certain 😁

     

    Yes mucka not  bad start to the day and indeed very close there with the 850s in fi. Nothing going forward on any model showing any zonal west to east flow and a great nhp. Here's hoping the cards fall for the UK xmas/new year🤞🤞🤞

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    53 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    It wouldn't take much adjustment would it?

    So far GFS ensembles have just shown a few colder runs in deep FI, ECM 12z ensembles were a little better but both seem to be trending the right way.

    GFS 264 and Atlantic locked out with cold uppers from the NE getting tantalisingly close.

    gfsnh-0-264.pnggfsnh-1-264.png

     

    And ladies and Gentlemen and pronouns, your first Christmas day chart of 2020

    gfsnh-0-384.png

     

    As with the whole GFS run it is full of promise.

    I'm not sure how this run managed to keep the cold uppers locked right on the NE coast for a week but maybe it is better to see these frustrating runs rather than the eye candy until things ae more certain 😁

     

    Quite so Mucka I always prefer to have the real eye candy charts the closer we get to the event. Good to have hints in the medium /longer term but you want the real stonkers to appear as you get within 7 days that's when it really feels like game on.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 gfs and Ukmo. Still much to keep us very interested. Couple this with the various gfs ens. At some point the meto are going to need to stick or twist with their extended outlook this to is fascinating. 

    046F8632-B73C-4B5C-92D3-D077E4BDEA91.png

    60BF439F-1979-4B91-B60E-A8025DBE0BD8.gif

    Edited by That ECM
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...