Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

The phazing of the low exiting Canada on this run is faster so we do not get the WAA to Greenland as per the 06z:

12z> 06z>

That has of late flattened the pattern. Hopefully other variables compensate for that downgrade?

Yep it is not looking do good now, let's see what happens in the 0z suite, perhaps this progression will happen after all. Would be a real shame though. I expect 12 ECM to look like the 0z met office, though.

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Even GEM is sniffing an Atlantic ridge so it must be nailed on! 

yes, GFS and phasing are not a match made in heaven so at this range it is too early to worry about one GFS run. However, both remain possibilities and we see at D11 if we do not get that ridge again the pattern flattens out as the lower heights circulate the Arctic high:

It def looks a case of hit or miss for week 2 depending on upstream amplification or not.

[swfc]

To be fair the 12z gfs looks in a good place even in fi. Arctic high in place, PV shreaded. Not to be sniffed at

[bluearmy]

Well it looks like it’s the slow train for the cold to get here and that means getting through quite a few signals and points ........

[joggs]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

yes, GFS and phasing are not a match made in heaven so at this range it is too early to worry about one GFS run. However, both remain possibilities and we see at D11 if we do not get that ridge again the pattern flattens out as the lower heights circulate the Arctic high:

It def looks a case of hit or miss for week 2 depending on upstream amplification or not.

Onto the next chase..............

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

To be fair the 12z gfs looks in a good place even in fi. Arctic high in place, PV shreaded. Not to be sniffed at

I was hoping for an early winter treat rather than waiting for the background signals, AKA MJO and SSW to rip what is left of the tPV. As you say, if these move from background to foreground then this...

...will be much quicker to go nuclear than from a standing start of an organised tPV! Let us hope that whilst we are waiting the tPV does not get its act together!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it looks like it’s the slow train for the cold to get here and that means getting through quite a few signals and points ........

Its chicken and egg then because we want those points to fail due to freezing, but they wont freeze until the siberian express has arrived!

[swfc]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

I was hoping for an early winter treat rather than waiting for the background signals, AKA MJO and SSW to rip what is left of the tPV. As you say, if these move from background to foreground then this...

...will be much quicker to go nuclear than from a standing start of an organised tPV! Let us hope that whilst we are waiting the tPV does not get its act together!

Yes I think so. Hopefully the disconnect in the atmosphere drags it heels for a good while. Its fine lines isn't it ie that phasing and lack of waa. Maybe ec will run with it shortly

[blizzard81]

We need a break from the mother vortex over northern Canada spewing these vortex lobes into the atlantic. This is at day 8. The 06z had this lobe spinning off but it then just strangely disintegrated into thin air which just won't happen. That's why it showed the great synoptics thereafter. 

[That ECM]

Gfs t216 mean. Not to shabby.

Edited December 8, 2020 by That ECM

[PolarWarsaw]

I think it needs to be accepted and we all must move on from the fact that early seasonal thoughts on a front loaded winter are a lost hope at this point. Yes it's been chilly, but considering the Atlantic has been locked out for so long (and looks like being so for a little bit longer) the cold air just hasn't been in place for any sort of reward at the surface, despite the pretty charts and great background conditions.

We have been discussing a cold spell and being in the 'best position possible' heading into December for nearly 3 weeks now and at this point, we are already talking about at least another 2 weeks for weather cold enough to produce snow. To me we need to forget everything that has gone now and treat this like we would at any other time...a 2 week chase with plenty of hurdles and issues to get through before we realistically talk about anything interesting at the surface.

I mentioned a few weeks back when I said that patterns don't favourably effect our weather at the surface a month in advance. The climatological bias here is too strong and we are such a tiny part of the world that even the best synoptics today, will have little effect if even 1 thing goes against us at any given point in the next few weeks, so I can't pretend that I'm even slightly excited at the prospect of another 2-3 week carrot dangle. After all the talk, there will be some extremely disappointed folk in here if we don't get a notable, memorable cold spell in the next month or so. 

We HAVE missed the boat on a front loaded winter, the cold air just wasn't there and putting faith in an SSW related cold spell is a very fickle, if not exciting business. 

That being said, the Atlantic is still blocked out and we are in a better starting position that most years, which is a bonus. It increases our chances of a proper cold spell, but it's nothing like a guarantee. A lot of luck will be needed to produce something notable. I can see a lot of frustrated members as we turn into New Year. Hopefully not though. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[swfc]

Tbh I think most would bank that gfs 12z at the end going into Xmas. Cold incoming, PV in bits, jet blasted south and zero east to west Atlantic. 

[Matt H]

GEM ends on an interesting cliffhanger...

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We need a break from the mother vortex over northern Canada spewing these vortex lobes into the atlantic. This is at day 8. The 06z had this lobe spinning off but it then just strangely disintegrated into thin air which just won't happen. That's why it showed the great synoptics thereafter. 

The control run also goes for that pv lobe spin off from day 7 to 8. It needs to sod off. 

[Chesil View]

12z another variation from the turning cold and wintry through the Xmas period envelope. Steady as she goes.

[terrier]

So once again we are waiting on the background signals to help us out. Didn’t we go through this last winter with the models. Think I will go along with the latest ec46 dayer which is going for milder air moving in as we enter Xmas. Think that always a good bet for our little island. 

[Jason M]

Were where we always are tbh, which is nothing cold until day 15 or 16. GEFS out as far as day 9 and nothing particularly exciting on offer. 

Next set of runs please....

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Were where we always are tbh, which is nothing cold until day 15 or 16. GEFS out as far as day 9 and nothing particularly exciting on offer. 

Next set of runs please....

Even on the 6z gfs if it had pulled in the real cold its still out of the reliable. Fine lines and a very fluid outlook. Certainly nothing very wintry atm 

[SLEETY]

12 minutes ago, terrier said:

So once again we are waiting on the background signals to help us out. Didn’t we go through this last winter with the models. Think I will go along with the latest ec46 dayer which is going for milder air moving in as we enter Xmas. Think that always a good bet for our little island. 

Good luck following that model it's performance was woeful last winter and the winter before. 

The lack of patience is what comes across in your post lol. Best NH profile for the start of Winter since 2010.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Good luck following that model it's performance was woeful last winter and the winter before. 

The lack of patience is what comes across in your post lol. Best NH profile for the start of Winter since 2010.

It was never on board for anything cold last Winter, and it was pretty much spot on last Summer. I would certainly be giving it much more credentials than GFS.. 

Good for sqaut, and CFS chocolate Fire guard System for sure. But it tends to get panned because of its epic fail a couple of years back! When in all honesty the only accurate model that year was the one the Spanish met seemed to be using. 

[Weather vane]

Im a bit confused about what a background signal is? For example, is it not the case that what happens at the pole directly affects things here? If a strong polar high develops and migrates south somewhat, that can have a major effect on disrupting established patterns. Maybe I'm picking this up wrong ??

Edited December 8, 2020 by Weather vane

[Scott Ingham]

8 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

@Scott Ingham mentioned yesterday WAA building through the country in a couple of weeks time. Is that what this chart is showing? (Genuine question. My model reading is not very advanced! )

Yes mate that's right. How far North the ridge from this will get is open to question still but its certainly the lag effects is expected from MJO Phase 5 into 6

[TSNWK]

In years to come historians will view these threads as a case book  on the fickle nature that be human behaviour. One good ECM in the next 55 mins and this place will be flipping and popping corks..and for that alone I love it here

[Djdazzle]

43 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

12z another variation from the turning cold and wintry through the Xmas period envelope. Steady as she goes.

A bit misleading. Where is the evidence that it’ll be turning cold over Xmas? I think there is some serious straw clutching going on!

[blizzard81]

The trend in the modelling today seems to be one of a greater presence of one of our biggest winter foes - an omnipresent low to our north west.