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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Something. to bear in mind with the GEFS .

Those can at times have a progressive bias and it’s not just an operational run scenario .

Thats been highlighted by forecasters in the USA . Whether it’s right now time will tell but blocking scenarios aren’t really its forte .

Exactly. Its only because its run 4 times a day people take notice. Scientifically its poor against ukmo and ecm and a lot of time GEM and JMA. The only thing I rate about it is its ability to pick up a trend past the day 10 mark sometimes 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

That is one mangled up trop pv on the ECM at just 144 hrs.

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.2344d8a570b38896985cfc3471bfc237.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.eff232510f4b98de60b2f49ba80e762e.png

144 EC...

The trop vortex is in huge trouble on this run that’s a big positive - split? Like a hot knife through butter.

168...

93F62259-75A4-4BB8-AC04-40D98179FD8B.thumb.png.94586fc9ab488d24a0ba45fb4502c8fd.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
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Posted

Look at the pv 

07008415-C8C9-4BA1-B428-F1FF72146DA8.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

 

9842731D-49BD-4126-B8C4-8FCB9103B388.thumb.png.ffbd19d35f8ce492dfcb9abe1eb8d592.png
Just looking through the GEFS 12z there’s a colder signal longer term in the run up to Christmas...some wintry perturbations, especially later!  :santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji: ❄️ 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Semantics aside the ecm continues to edge closer to the gfs and I expect that this is the route post-d5 for our locale:

1650947571_gfseu-0-168(1).thumb.png.2a1510fb4ddfe273304780f850556e32.pngECE1-168.thumb.gif.a5b84c1258e8602ed06c76a2d27b9b12.gif

The gfs op had an arctic high (wedge) around this time that lasted till d16, so the ecm NH profile could be correct.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eyes on the arctic high back end ec ..... won’t pan out like this but variations on it are feasible 

That Arctic high has been featuring very regularly on the GEFS lately.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Look at the pv 

07008415-C8C9-4BA1-B428-F1FF72146DA8.png

So why the heck are we not seeing any forecasted benefit to what is a pretty much text book split of the vortex.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So why the heck are we not seeing any forecasted benefit to what is a pretty much text book split of the vortex.

Patience ....... it’s not within a week yet, even if it happens !   And then there will be a further delay until it would impact us (if indeed it did )

in this run it stops around the pole so of little consequence in the short term .....

Edited by bluearmy
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So why the heck are we not seeing any forecasted benefit to what is a pretty much text book split of the vortex.

...the problem is that although the tPV is there to be ripped apart, there is no sustained forcing, just wedges injected into the flow, and then the pattern goes flat again! The gfs had that Arctic high for 10 days but it just warmed out as there was no forcing from wave activity. Hopefully we will get some amplification from background activity sooner rather than later...

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So why the heck are we not seeing any forecasted benefit to what is a pretty much text book split of the vortex.

Depends on what people are looking for. We have had “interesting” weather in parts of the uk already. People are looking for a winter wonderland and what’s more they are looking for it in 6 or so days time. The “very low confidence” from mid month is due to not knowing where the blocking and highs will go.  Is proper cold nailed? Clearly not. Is this the best chance we have had in a while? I would say so.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted (edited)

Ecm again goes mild from the end of next weekend but let's be clear. The Atlantic is not barreling through its hitting the buffers splitting and sending WAA up towards western Scandinavia. At 168-192 get this inside 96-120 and more energy will go south and more WAA will be more vertical and well see high pressure build through the UK into Scandi. Another good run from ECM for building blocks and the amplification is only going to sharpen the next 2 days 

The key to reading charts isn't to take every run at face value. Its being able to look at a run. Work through its known bias and visualize what it will actually look like as we hit higher resolution. Its only within 96 hours the models are capable of working out split energy and sometimes even less ive seen it as low as 54hours. Ignore this run and understand it is not a move towards GFS as some would like to spin

Edited by Scott Ingham
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Thanks all for the replies.. putting the models to one side they simply help illustrate what a great virtual community this place is.  I love it

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That bloody low in the Atlantic just meanders  at day 7!! 

Need it to sod off sharpish !

image.thumb.png.502f12a087da4530b01e9f7cb079b3ad.png

I actually think similar to this needs to and is likely to happen.  NH profile is primed imo to nice possibilities 

 

BFTP

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
10 minutes ago, IDO said:

...the problem is that although the tPV is there to be ripped apart, there is no sustained forcing, just wedges injected into the flow, and then the pattern goes flat again! The gfs had that Arctic high for 10 days but it just warmed out as there was no forcing from wave activity. Hopefully we will get some amplification from background activity sooner rather than later...

Yes it's a pretty decent nph profile atm. That said it's still lacking the forcing as you say and a very fluid set up. Obv know real east to west zonality so a decent holding position

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Probably a silly question but is it possible the the models are reacting to the up tick in the zonal winds before the drop off??

E121DAA3-6CB7-4DF0-B07D-024BC73E4006.jpeg

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

After weekend of pondering which model shows the route to cold all EC,GFS and GEM show Euro High at day 10 with flow trajectory SW-NE. Basically arriving in usual pre Christmas pattern of recent years. A bit of inversion cold here a bit of elevation snow there a bit of Alpine 1000m+snow paradise images and a bit of talk what might happen after January SSW pending MJO. Normal December faire to be honest

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