Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[northwestsnow]

Thanks Catacol for you're thoughts ....

Certainly an unsettled spell looks unavoidable but what happens next will dictate Christmas weather...

I could happily live with a UK high with cold seasonal weather...

Hopefully HP can establish far enough North to allow for it...

[blizzard81]

25 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

There's my last week in December UK high again. It doesnt happen often but ny winter forecast is like clockwork atm haha

Well I for one hope your forecast is correct. The only tweak I would want is for the zonal first couple of weeks of Jan to be adjusted to cold . I'm just being greedy though lol. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Catacol for you're thoughts ....

Certainly an unsettled spell looks unavoidable but what happens next will dictate Christmas weather...

I could happily live with a UK high with cold seasonal weather...

Hopefully HP can establish far enough North to allow for it...

Yes, very confident now that i won't have gone too high in the EWP competition.

[SMU]

Morning - A very very complicated scenario this week which is well above GFS pay station vis a vee its progressive nature will always blend out the blocking signal to the NE

Stick with the EURO blend & discount the GFS until it can resolve the split energy > probably by 12z tomorrow....

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning - A very very complicated scenario this week which is well above GFS pay station vis a vee its progressive nature will always blend out the blocking signal to the NE

Stick with the EURO blend & discount the GFS until it can resolve the split energy > probably by 12z tomorrow....

To be fair Steve even the progressive GFS had a cold High taking over day 10 onwards...

I'd snatch your hand off now for 6z...

 

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning - A very very complicated scenario this week which is well above GFS pay station vis a vee its progressive nature will always blend out the blocking signal to the NE

Stick with the EURO blend & discount the GFS until it can resolve the split energy > probably by 12z tomorrow....

Complicated is indeed the word. The way things have gone in the last 10 days I'm tempted to think that blocking holding on is the form horse - but we all know that these scenarios are very hard to pin down. The jet streak pushing through the US for the next few days I think will give us until the end of the week at least before milder scenarios get any real traction - but certainly on a knife edge just how far, if at all, the atlantic will push through. The JMA monthly certainly doesn't think it will.....ECMWF mean anomaly charts tomorrow will be interesting.

[iowpompeylee]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning - A very very complicated scenario this week which is well above GFS pay station vis a vee its progressive nature will always blend out the blocking signal to the NE

Stick with the EURO blend & discount the GFS until it can resolve the split energy > probably by 12z tomorrow....

I Always thought the gfs is the model which finds it most difficult, when It comes to cold spell. Still think there’s something around the corner! I can smell it in the air

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well I for one hope your forecast is correct. The only tweak I would want is for the zonal first couple of weeks of Jan to be adjusted to cold . I'm just being greedy though lol. 

I think the part that could be incorrect listening to older heads than mine is the ssw happening 2 or 3 weeks later. I was hoping the next round of pacific forcing around the 17th could lead to a split at the end of December beginning of January. It may well still happen well see.

[West is Best]

Good consensus now in the GFS ensembles out to T144 (roughly Dec 13th). As the header on NW homepage states, a chilly start then gradually rising temperature profile.

Into FI and cold lovers will be hoping that the yellow line is the one that comes off  

 

I'm afraid the return to zonality was inevitable. Despite being told that the synoptics were amazing and wonderful and quite the best thing for years, they really weren't. Look to upstream blocking for UK cold. Concretely that means a proper Greenland High. Otherwise no amount of high pressure out to our east will be able to resist the Atlantic onslaught. Sorry if that's unpopular. It just happens to be true.

[Griff]

1 hour ago, captaincroc said:

Well *clutches nearest straw*, if that is the supposed new version of the GFS then this could be a good thing, right? 

I've been saying the same thing for a couple of days, as the GSFP was looking far closer to the UKMO than the current GFS... 

[SMU]

^^^^ Rock solid GFS platforms are often built on foundations made of Jelly...

[Rollo]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

^^^^ Rock solid GFS platforms are often built on foundations made of Jelly...

Steve looking at mid European temperatures this morning I despair of anything remotely cold enough to produce lowland snow for some time to come unless we get a brutal northerly.

[Frosty.]

For all you snow starved coldies out there ( including moi )!....there is some hope out there in the GEFS 6z in the run up to Christmas..it’s not time to despair..yet!

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Jon Snow

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think the part that could be incorrect listening to older heads than mine is the ssw happening 2 or 3 weeks later. I was hoping the next round of pacific forcing around the 17th could lead to a split at the end of December beginning of January. It may well still happen well see.

Looking at the most recent posts in the strat thread, you could certainly still be right with your timings. 

[booferking]

BBC farming weather for week ahead uncertain how far fronts make it end of the week everything up in the air even 5 days out never mind the following week.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Good consensus now in the GFS ensembles out to T144 (roughly Dec 13th). As the header on NW homepage states, a chilly start then gradually rising temperature profile.

Into FI and cold lovers will be hoping that the yellow line is the one that comes off  

 

I'm afraid the return to zonality was inevitable. Despite being told that the synoptics were amazing and wonderful and quite the best thing for years, they really weren't. Look to upstream blocking for UK cold. Concretely that means a proper Greenland High. Otherwise no amount of high pressure out to our east will be able to resist the Atlantic onslaught. Sorry if that's unpopular. It just happens to be true.

For each of the bits I've highlighted.. 

It's not exactly the true definition of that word (zonal ) that gets thrown about whenever some folk see any signs of Atlantic sourced weather, certainly not from the current charts we are seeing, like I mentioned yesterday the big player remains the blocking high to the east. 

Whilst Greenland highs are amazing to see, personally there's something really satisfying of seeing a Scandinavian high unfolding aka bfte etc and one or two signs that could be the area to watch for higher pressure developing (could be the current block retrogressing) maybe towards the run up to Christmas we shall see. 

Not yet it doesn't and we have witnessed many times where patterns can change very quickly in fact I think there were some saying this current pattern was going to be an Atlantic one before the high to the east was underestimated (a common theme with blocking over the years) similar to the charts that @chionomaniac posted with the lower pressure having a tough battle with the block. 

[Paceyboy]

I like the warming trend on the GFS in that we seem to building high pressure from the south but which is on the move! It looks to be linking with northern blocking later in the run and aiding WAA into western Europe and atlantic to help blocking establish.

So hopefully a short lived milder, drier spell followed by a better shot at drawing in real cold facilitated by proper blocking where we need it. As we head deeper into Winter more cold air will be available anyway. Much better than these sliders in -2/-3c 850 temp air and cold rain!

[IDO]

Looking at the ECM De Bilt temps it is very easy to argue that ECM is clueless from d4 onwards and I certainly would not be basing any forecast on that model currently:

 London> 

The op and control are very much bordering on the coldest solutions so probably the usual ECM issues. Not that I would side with GFS or GEM, but at least the GFS is consistent with a medium range road map and has solid cluster support on its ens? However, blocks are a noticeable high-error synoptic for GFS so it may just be consistently wrong?

[SMU]

25 minutes ago, Rollo said:

Steve looking at mid European temperatures this morning I despair of anything remotely cold enough to produce lowland snow for some time to come unless we get a brutal northerly.

I am looking for deep cold to start filtering into Northern Europe in the next 8-10 days as high pressure drifts NNW 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I am looking for deep cold to start filtering into Northern Europe in the next 8-10 days as high pressure drifts NNW 

Aren't we all, Steve? Aren't we all! But, on the day when Christian Benteke scores a goal (his sixth in 'only' 82 games!) who knows what might happen?

Edited December 6, 2020 by General Cluster

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, booferking said:

BBC farming weather for week ahead uncertain how far fronts make it end of the week everything up in the air even 5 days out never mind the following week.

Any transition to mobility will be tough to call with the blocking to our east - it’s feasible that calling mobility for week 2 is easier than how any transition pans out timing wise ...... 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I am looking for deep cold to start filtering into Northern Europe in the next 8-10 days as high pressure drifts NNW 

Its cooled down already Baltics/ Belarus eastwards ...

[SLEETY]

The gfs ensembles flip-flop all the time, it hasn't even got any idea  after the next  5 days ahead, it always decides the Atlantic will win through no matter what  and the 06 z is always too progressive. Since it countless times for years and years. 

If the high builds towards Greenland then the trough will drop down into Scandenavia and move Westwards from there. 

THE very low uppers would be behind the trough, 1881 January bitter spell with historic blizzard is good example of that happening

[Valleyboy]

56 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Good consensus now in the GFS ensembles out to T144 (roughly Dec 13th). As the header on NW homepage states, a chilly start then gradually rising temperature profile.

Into FI and cold lovers will be hoping that the yellow line is the one that comes off  

 

I'm afraid the return to zonality was inevitable. Despite being told that the synoptics were amazing and wonderful and quite the best thing for years, they really weren't. Look to upstream blocking for UK cold. Concretely that means a proper Greenland High. Otherwise no amount of high pressure out to our east will be able to resist the Atlantic onslaught. Sorry if that's unpopular. It just happens to be true.

A Greenland high isn’t a necessity for very cold weather, Scandinavia high would deliver on its own, providing there are low heights over Southern Europe.

[Scott Ingham]

53 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looking at the most recent posts in the strat thread, you could certainly still be right with your timings. 

Yeah ive noticed the displacement causing a split up to 30hpa. I still hold out hope. Every day things look a little more like what I thought could happen but we need to see this warming a little higher to be confident. The good news i think is if it doesn't happen this time there has to be a very strong chance in the middle of January with a 3rd bite of the cherry

Edited December 6, 2020 by Scott Ingham