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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs looking very good so far!no deepening low at 48 hours and even slacker!!!

Yep  so much uncertainty  it makes  picking out  were the snow fall futile    however  as futile as it is the gfs  brings the risk back to Wales and west midlands    pin tail on the donkeyb

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon still going for snow  Thursday night into Friday   as the front wraps around down the spine of the country 

Yes looks like a midlands north event if you could call it that,still a lot to resolve even on the day/night.

iconeu_uk1-42-52-0.thumb.png.7b24041ce86ab896be20d7c8c8a1453c.png

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine ICON-EU 0.065° du DWD (météo allemande) sur 5 zones (France...

 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

BANK!!!!!

image.thumb.png.288514e0d894ecb80f1690e909584481.png
 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs has defo moves towards ecm in terms of snowfall!

Thurs night, not very heavy though

prectypeuktopo.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs has defo moves towards ecm in terms of snowfall!

Don't worry it will move back and forth a few times before the event!  

When do the high res models kick in? 

Ta

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Was it showing any different on the 12z mate or has it upgraded on the 18z?

The low is about 100 miles or so further south Shaky than the 12z,this is why the PPN/snow is too.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Was it showing any different on the 12z mate or has it upgraded on the 18z?

Much further south. 12z took the ICON 18z route of piling the precips into the northeast. Snow looks about the same, just much further south. 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

8cm south mids... 

CE121BE2-744A-4C6F-895B-F9F11C677C05.gif

I dont think it will be that far south!!i think by the 00z tomorrow it will be a slap bang hit across central  england!!!not as far north as ecm or far south as the 18z

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I dont think it will be that far south!!i think by the 00z tomorrow it will be a slap bang hit across central  england!!!not as far north as ecm or far south as the 18z

Actually destined for South Oxfordshire and I've planned to meet @Mike Pooleto go cross country skiing. I'm at the foot of the Chilterns, last snow here was first week of March, settled for a time.

Am I right that the low seems to swirl it around after the first attempt, bringing it back around later? 

I posted earlier on the twitter thread regarding the emerging 'classic la nina' signal and pattern. Does this promotes Atlantic blocking, even if it doesn't signal guaranteed northerlies and sustained cold? 

Edited by Griff
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

OK,time to look at the NH view at 120 and there are differences upstream with the trough separation to the NW

a clean break over NE states compared to the 12z

18z 120 v's 12z 126

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.c811ea919c76f983178b239981edebb5.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.a38998a5c6bf3b56a99d48a9eb658c38.png

but the phasing with trough over the UK and north Atlantic shortwave is still an issue.

 

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DavidS Aficionado

DavidS

Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
Posted
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Actually destined for South Oxfordshire and I've planned to meet @Mike Pooleto go cross country skiing. I'm at the foot of the Chilterns, last snow here was first week of March, settled for a time.

Am I right that the low seems to swirl it around after the first attempt, bringing it back around later? 

I posted earlier on the twitter thread regarding the emerging 'classic la nina' signal and pattern. Does this promotes Atlantic blocking, even if it doesn't signal guaranteed northerlies and sustained cold? 

Yes it pivots north as another low comes in underneath.

The Russian High is still strong, will it push west? Probably not.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

A messy complex outlook in the immediate, cold front moving down tomorrow, increasingly colder air invading the UK thereafter.  Putting fine details on where precipitation will fall, who will have snow etc, all conjecture at thisrange, very much nowcasting forecasting.

The weekend sees the trough holding form going nowhere fast,  locked in place by heights to our east and west, further cold showery conditions, snow reserved for higher ground. Something brighter hopefully come Sunday.

The models for next week showing no major change in the overall pattern, slow moving picture,  temps below par, wintry precipitation with modest height. 

I'm not an expert on MJO but some suggestions moving into Phase 5 and 6 which I think correlates with strong heights ridging north in mid atlantic, perhaps that's the trigger to a more colder blocked outlook eventually, can those heights to our NE join hands, interesting signals from ECM for heights to build over Iceland 10 days time.

A much more interesting start to winter than many recent ones, possibly most interesting since 2010, something  certainly in terms of a lacklustre atlantic - highly unusual, early Dec on average is when westerlies reach their maxim.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

That Scurasian block is causing all sorts of headaches in the NWP'S  with lows,troughs and shortwaves trying to push S/SE translating into a stalemate scenarios.

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

...But something interesting is starting to unfold at day 9,and no it's not my book of shakespeare on page nine.

gfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.33f0ae2b117a6570794628fe12e7ba9e.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Heights to our north but we need an injection of cold around the east periphery of the high 

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.226ea5d7a343010200a1171f3624b5db.png

still though a better run than the 12z.

Edited by Allseasons-si
Forgot full stop
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Arpege 18z has the snow all the way in scotland

Arpege the realist/worthy model imo.. but as -again in nowcast scenarios

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Heights to our north but we need an injection of cold around the east periphery of the high 

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.226ea5d7a343010200a1171f3624b5db.png

still though a better run than the 12z

The pac- ridge that’s been foe(previous seasons).. looks lively for becoming friend..!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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