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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

Seasonal Trim

By Seasonal Trim
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

They do on a climatic scale, not day to day.

In 100,000 years time, land will still heat up faster than water.

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Bradley in Kent Aficionado

Bradley in Kent

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Only thing certain is that it will get dark at night. 

Haha, round here even that's not a given! The super bright LED streetlights and people buying floodlights means that when we have low cloud it's like dusk the entire night!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
34 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

I see ans what is a Pert 13 and a Cobra rum

Sounds like a nice drink.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

ECM and GFS at day 6

image.thumb.png.49bceafa5830dc8025156de45a46d34e.png
 

The ECM is very close to successfully pulling that Asian section of the tropospheric vortex towards us. It would take much tweaking at this timeframe to produce a much colder result.

image.thumb.png.e8ab608794b2333cddda989ef52e6fad.png

The GFS however has a much weaker Arctic high, it is also further away. So we are left with a wedge of heights to the north. Now these setups tend to offer little modification in temperatures so if you are in cold air they can produce significant snow (Jan 2013), however if the airmass is quite mild they can produce a lot of rain (Jan 2014) as fronts become slow moving. 
 

There isn’t much change in my mind this morning, albeit I hoped we could get more upgrades on the strength and position of that Arctic high. However there is probably a day or so before the modelling of that feature is nailed, along with the subtle heights to our north.

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mathematician Enthusiast

mathematician

Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
Posted
7 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Winter hasnt yet begun its still astronomical Autumn. True Winter begins on 21st December and judging by a lot of the comments in model thread you'd think Winter ends at Xmas. Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C? At least days might be warmer than days during the rotten mid-june that has just passed.  

20-30 degrees in December!?! Are you for real o what?

 

Insane...

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Sounds like a nice drink.

We’ve had bitter, cobra and snowballs mentioned this morning. 
What’s the betting that the only drink we end up with is a pint of mild?

Pass the scotch egg. 
 

I still am expecting a cheeky Atlantic ridge to pop up and make things sufficiently interesting for Christmas week. 

Edited by Drifter
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, Valleyboy said:

Nope, I stand by my comments, as they are true.  I could give examples of forecasts back in the 80’s 7 days out that were more accurate than anything I’ve seen today.  You shouldn’t be calling my comments ridiculous and asking me to remove them, as it’s just my view, older bean!

Lol.. 

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted
49 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

In 100,000 years time, land will still heat up faster than water.

Not against climatic norms, but I think I might be wasting my time here.

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BarometerCat Aficionado

BarometerCat

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
Posted
28 minutes ago, mathematician said:

20-30 degrees in December!?! Are you for real o what?

 

Insane...

But did anyone say where?  Australia is in with a chance..

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Not against climatic norms, but I think I might be wasting my time here.

Agree with you. Obviously ice free open ocean is now absorbing vastly more heat than previously. this is having an effect. Check out the blog BFTV posted the other day, see the Strat thread, backs you up on the high Pressure wall.

Edited by Downburst
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I assume you are taking the mick? 

 

I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road....  As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
2 hours ago, mathematician said:

20-30 degrees in December!?! Are you for real o what?

 

Insane...

So all the talk of Winters getting warmer is just BS then??? If you thought i was referring to 30C being possible this winter then im afraid it should be me asking if your for real lol

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mathematician Enthusiast

mathematician

Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
Posted
18 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road....  As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

If, God Forbid, we get to the point where we hit 30C in December, in the UK that means that most likely the human race will be in serious deep trouble.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road....  As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

And they certainly are getting warmer... We had 21C in February 2019 -- and didn't somewhere in Scotland reach 18.7C, only last December? And I'd better just add (for 'balance' of course!) that Altnaharra got down to -27.2C... 25-years ago!:santa-emoji:

The lies are out there?

Edited by General Cluster
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Freeze Seasoned

Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
Posted
22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road....  As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

Meanwhile, Australia hits 80c..

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Earthshine Seasoned

Earthshine

Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
Posted

20C is more than possible in December I reckon.  We achieved 18.7C in Scotland last year in December.  Just need a perfect setup with a strong Foehn effect.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

GFS 12z run in a nutshell

image.thumb.png.ce4e7ff5155910b1fb5379e14340dec0.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, West is Best said:

Is that this winter's myth? Seems so to me. 

We're back into zonality. By all means hit that ignore button but there's no point pretending otherwise. 

Edited by swfc
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BarometerCat Aficionado

BarometerCat

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
Posted (edited)

From the ever reliable (HA! ) GFS ensembles (for my location)  Not really shorts or sandals weather, although you do see people out like that in single digit temps these days... fair play to them 

 

image.thumb.png.7f299b1d5129b26ab2a56d7c2d650a56.png

Edited by Barometer Cat
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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Sounds like a nice drink.

I'm a few years underage, but as long as it's Cobra it's non alcaholic at least that's what they said to me.

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