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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    Just out of interest with the BBC and their Countryfile forecast - what model do they use? I know weather apps are unreliable, but for my location (Google's weather app) the highest is 4c, yet the BBC has me at 5-6c degrees for a couple of days this week. Are they seeing something we've not twigged on to, or is them just being a bit cautious / mild ramping with the temps?

    Personally looking at the models, it doesn't look that bad - but there's a long way to go, and from history and personal experience February seems to be the best month for snow.  

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    55 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Might be worth staying out of the other thread for a bit as they journey along the 'change curve'.

    Tonight we at denial but the next step is anger before acceptance is reached. Given the intensity and longevity of the ramping I predict a nasty hangover!!

    In reality a 'significantly cold' spell has never been modelled at any point and what we have now is a couple of weeks of coldish weather which is nothing out of the ordinary (or at least shouldn't be at our latitude!!).

    It may be that the SSW produces the goods in a few weeks but its not a done deal by any stretch and I still think too many assumptions are being made that a massive 1987 style easterly is going to arrive. It may do, but its more likely it won't. 

    That said, things could definitely be a lot worse as unlike in previous years there is at least a possibility of something interesting and a few might still see some snow this week. To date though, with the notable exception of some lucky people who have had snow most people will barely have even registered this supposed cold spell. Other than a bit of rain the most a lot of people have seen is a couple of frosts.

    Hopefully the ECM will make this post redundant by signaling the 1987 style easterly I've just rubbished (and not at day 10 for once)!! 😀

     

     

    I am not a weather expert and do not understand charts but being brought up as a farmer and experiencing weather i am every bit as passionate about weather as any one of you.What i do know however is some of the worst winters were weeks away from getting started such as 1947 and 1986 and closer today you only have to look at 2013 and 2018 to know there is a very long way to go yet,to start to write winter off now is fools talk!

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    I just get fed up with the same people who get away with making predictions and making it sound like a certainty. At least they should show the other side of the argument. And other people just never learn, salivating after charts then getting the hump when they don’t come true!

    'Making it sound like a certainty' is the problem I agree.

    You can learn alot in the model thread, but you will get shot down by some if you suggest something that doesn't conform to the 'expert's viewpoint on how things will play out cold/snow wise.

    Having viewed hundreds of busted attempts at uk cold and snow that have been 'nailed on' over the years via these forums, I feel very tempted to offer contary views at times if I think we are being led up the garden path.

    Even the Met office were accused of talking guff the other day for introducing the idea of a UK High on their 10 day trend outlook! So with some of our own 'experts' prepared to be so dismissive of the M.O, I find it best to keep my trap shut.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Short term pain, long term gain?

    All for fun, but the "No cold pool to the East" comments will soon be forgotten if anything like this becomes reality.

    EC850-240 3jan12.png

    Or, should this winter go the same was 2018-19 did, 'short-term gain, long term being flayed with a potato peeler'?😱

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    So here I am pondering the current situation and I’m trying to think of a winter with a chilly Christmas and snow at the start of January which then had a milder spell before turning very cold and very snowy around about the 20th..................... but for now it escapes me.😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Or, should this winter go the same was 2018-19 did, 'short-term gain, long term being flayed with a potato peeler'?😱

    Who knows? Haha, any coldie looking for a hobby that is easy on the nerves, should think twice about getting into this 'following the models' stuff.

    However, if you take a step back and try to understand how all the variables and processes interact, it becomes interesting even when things don't go the way you would prefer it to go. I find it very fascinating what is happening now.

    No snow and ice outside? --> studying the weather, using the models and gaining more and more understanding of the matter.
    Snow and ice outside? --> Go out and play!

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    58 minutes ago, TomB said:

    Been lurking on here for about a decade but have been compelled to sign up because of what I’ve seen today.

    First off, by and large the forum is excellent and filled with informative, helpful people attempting to untangle a science that still has so many gaps in our understanding or even trying to fit together that which we do know. I feel like I’ve learnt a lot without having scratched the surface and I’m constantly in awe of those who can put so many different pieces together to arrive at a coherent view. I thank many of you for that. 
     

    However the sniping, arrogance and crowing over the last couple of pages here is distasteful. Those implying an immaturity in posters seem to lack some perspective on how their own crowing appears when read by someone else.

    People have their bias and have theirs hopes, sometimes this might go to far in to the analysis they’re attempting to give but I don’t see any malice in it, the same, unfortunately,  can’t be said for those who take so much pleasure in see those hopes fail.

    it’s a shame, and the forum is a poorer place for it. 

     

     

     

    I think maybe this was aimed at me and perhaps a few others but I’ll take the bullet for it. 
    Yes this did used to be an excellent forum, full of good information and advice. However what we’ve seen this last four or five years is perhaps too much information available and not enough knowledge to process it. After last nights 18z I cringed when I saw posts with “Boom”, “In the bag” and “nailed” etc etc etc. Nothing in meteorology is ‘nailed’ until you actually see it fall out of the sky, and these are the kind of posts that I’m aiming my criticism at. It’s in no way helpful to people trying to find their way around the world of weather, and of course the backlash that followed when it all went wrong was in a large extent down to posts like these. 
    All I can say is thank god there was no Internet and weather forums when I was learning about meteorology. If there had been I’d have probably given up and taken up another hobby. All my learning was done from books written by experienced meteorologists and ‘nailed’ was certainly never mentioned in any of them. 
    Excitement at a possible upcoming cold spell is perfectly understandable, but many of those comments last night were not helpful, not educational and sometimes downright misleading. I just hope we all learnt at least something from this debacle and perhaps the moderators will remove the less helpful ones in future. 
    kind regards and good evening.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    2 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

    They're entitled to their opinions.

    They are but it is also wrong to have misleading claims that seems most likely not to happen and you can also tell these same folk are no longer posting on the MOD thread 

    It seems that there is a certain "bias" that favours then coldies there 

    If you post anything that's not Cold you are denounced in simple terms I have tried posting some of my opinions on there either to get blasted for them or from to magically go pop

    It's really sad that some folk won't post there anymore and needs to be a more general model discussion

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    36 minutes ago, NeilN said:

    Just out of interest with the BBC and their Countryfile forecast - what model do they use? I know weather apps are unreliable, but for my location (Google's weather app) the highest is 4c, yet the BBC has me at 5-6c degrees for a couple of days this week. Are they seeing something we've not twigged on to, or is them just being a bit cautious / mild ramping with the temps?

    Personally looking at the models, it doesn't look that bad - but there's a long way to go, and from history and personal experience February seems to be the best month for snow.  

    Probably the best way to answer the second part of that question (BBC mild ramping) is to ask yourself why they would do that? In short, there is no reason. Remember as well that the Temp is the predicted Max for that whole area, so the '6' that they are quoting may be '4' across a good part of that area.

    In terms of this week I just don't think they are seeing anything particularly of note. Outside of some fairly localized events I suspect they will be proved correct (just as they were last week).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    Wow, things really have taken a turn for the worst in here this evening. Yes, it’s likely to become less cold by mid-month based on the current model guidance, but there’s really no need for the sniping or the doom and gloom comments. Can we not just discuss the model output without making things personal? It’s just weather and we can’t do anything about it at the end of the day.

    I'm nae feeling 'gloomy' at all, FW... the weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do? image.thumb.png.c3d73aa32b9f3d498c44389a505801ca.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.
    1 hour ago, YellowSnow said:

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a thought. 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Yes! And also, as I have said a few times a minimum age requirement of 21 thus eliminating the children/ teens and allowing mature, adult (even potentially post-grad) people to post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    1 minute ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Yes! And also, as I have said a few times a minimum age requirement of 21 thus eliminating the children/ teens and allowing mature, adult (even potentially post-grad) people to post.

    Possibly, but I can see what an outcry that would cause. I think better moderation is needed to sort the wheat from the chaff. It’s a difficult line to tread whatever way you do it. Something does need to be done though as it’s becoming a farce. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Yes! And also, as I have said a few times a minimum age requirement of 21 thus eliminating the children/ teens and allowing mature, adult (even potentially post-grad) people to post.

    You sound like another one of those self-proclaimed geniuses, of whose invaluable input the MOD thread is so sorely missing? Ever heard of the saying: put up or shut up?❓

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not into all this "boom" and "smell the coffee" over hyped ramping there is in the MOD thread, I only post in there sporadically due to the fast flowing, over ramping tone of it.

    But restricting who can post on there by their age or by their educational abilities is a little too far.  This forum after all is for laid back, amateur analysis and interest of all things weather.  For what it's worth, there are some very mature, knowledgable younger folk in there and very immature, unknowledgeable older folk in there.

    If you want a serious, down to earth forecast you would head over to the Met Office website or the like.  The whole point, I feel, of this forum is to provide a place for fellow weather enthusiasts to discuss all things weather, have fun, search for specific, favoured weather types and provide "if", "what" and "how" scenarios.

    Yes, at times the MOD thread needs to be brought down a peg or two into the real world, but IMO, it would be kinda boring if all we had is 100% factual chat of what the model data is actually showing without any speculation at all.

    Perhaps two Model threads is an option?  One as it is now for hype and specific weather type hunting?  Another for factual, no bias, realistic model commentary?

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    24 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    You sound like another one of those self-proclaimed geniuses, of whose invaluable input the MOD thread is so sorely missing? Ever heard of the saying: put up or shut 

    Edited by YellowSnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Enough already, this thread isn't for moaning about other members, carping from the sidelines about the quality of forecasting in the discussion threads etc (although the clue is in the name here - they're discussion threads). It's for chatting about the weather this winter.

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    5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Yes! And also, as I have said a few times a minimum age requirement of 21 thus eliminating the children/ teens and allowing mature, adult (even potentially post-grad) people to post.

    I believe there has been young man posting in the model thread who is way under your requirement who is knowledgable and enthusiastic. You’d be rid of him? 

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    44 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

    I think maybe this was aimed at me and perhaps a few others but I’ll take the bullet for it. 
    Yes this did used to be an excellent forum, full of good information and advice. However what we’ve seen this last four or five years is perhaps too much information available and not enough knowledge to process it. After last nights 18z I cringed when I saw posts with “Boom”, “In the bag” and “nailed” etc etc etc. Nothing in meteorology is ‘nailed’ until you actually see it fall out of the sky, and these are the kind of posts that I’m aiming my criticism at. It’s in no way helpful to people trying to find their way around the world of weather, and of course the backlash that followed when it all went wrong was in a large extent down to posts like these. 
    All I can say is thank god there was no Internet and weather forums when I was learning about meteorology. If there had been I’d have probably given up and taken up another hobby. All my learning was done from books written by experienced meteorologists and ‘nailed’ was certainly never mentioned in any of them. 
    Excitement at a possible upcoming cold spell is perfectly understandable, but many of those comments last night were not helpful, not educational and sometimes downright misleading. I just hope we all learnt at least something from this debacle and perhaps the moderators will remove the less helpful ones in future. 
    kind regards and good evening.

     

    While I agree with you that posts shouldn’t be misleading for the most part they have been a result of enthusiasm being met with crushing disappointment. I don’t think that justifies the reactions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, TomB said:

    While I agree with you that posts shouldn’t be misleading for the most part they have been a result of enthusiasm being met with crushing disappointment. I don’t think that justifies the reactions. 

    Aye Tom, youngsters can sometimes seem over-enthusiastic... But we all have to start somewhere: I was certainly not a 63 year-old holder of a Natural Science degree, when I was 13... Shut the youngsters out now? Where the flock would we be now, had our elders shut us all out??

    Some folks are soooo shortsighted?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    8 minutes ago, TomB said:

    While I agree with you that posts shouldn’t be misleading for the most part they have been a result of enthusiasm being met with crushing disappointment. I don’t think that justifies the reactions. 

    And perhaps that’s why the misleading over enthusiastic posts need to be curbed, so that the crushing disappointment is avoided or at least diminished. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking

    We have entered a period when - perhaps as a result of the much discussed SSW - there is significant uncertainty in the evolution of our weather within NWP horizons.

    Many posts in the MOD thread say that the models aren’t handling this well. My take is that the models are accurately reflecting the uncertainty, and it’s actually the posters who aren’t handling this well..!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    1 minute ago, IanT said:

    We have entered a period when - perhaps as a result of the much discussed SSW - there is significant uncertainty in the evolution of our weather within NWP horizons.

    Many posts in the MOD thread say that the models aren’t handling this well. My take is that the models are accurately reflecting the uncertainty, and it’s actually the posters who aren’t handling this well..!

     

     

    Post of the day! 👏👏

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    6 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

    And perhaps that’s why the misleading over enthusiastic posts need to be curbed, so that the crushing disappointment is avoided or at least diminished. 

    The easiest and quickest way to do that is to remove the like buttons. 

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