Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

@Scott Inghamis the Poster that keeps everything balanced he certainly knows a lot about Meteorology and is good at noticing trends in Charts close and far out.

Thanks buddy!

[Ashme]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey gang, I may not be no expert, but I do know a cold GEFS 6z when I see one..and some of these members make me go weak at the knees..now I may be a drunken autistic git..but I’ve been here for 15 years so I think my drunken opinion counts for something..did I mention I’m a Spurs fan?..probably way too much information..just look at that mean for 7th Jan..just look at it in awe!..

 

You we're doing so well...........right up to the Spurs fan bit!!!! Haha.

Thanks to you and all the other (too many to list) knowledgeable posters in here as I have learnt so much these past few weeks.

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, although 2010 and 2018 gave us some decent snowfall. 
 

I would love another 1991 or 1987 spell.

And yeah, the snow was better, plus the British music bands were better back then. It just seems everywhere you turn now, everyone wants to have that rubbish Urban sound, or sound like Stormzy.

Spot on better days they were, where's my time machine

[Eagle Eye]

[mountain shadow]

The latest forecast shows the band tonight all rain or sleet to lower levels but chance of snow for a time in central parts of England. 

Didn't look good to be honest.

[Laurence Hill]

27 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Thank you so much for your objective analysis recently. I would rather read posts from people that use their experience to make a brave prediction any day rather than read posts from people who merely come on here to look for a ‘told you so’ moment if anything goes wrong with a cold spell. Keep it up, although I don’t know how you’re still awake at this point.

Also worth thanking @Kasim Awan for your updates recently as well on the snow situation. I could add so many names but you 2 have both been great recently with consistent updates.

New kids on the block, well done to them.

[Eagle Eye]

GFS isn't the most accurate but can show you how the Trend is going.

Charts such as GEM are typical and are good for a few days  but don't show you the full array with not very good accuaracy past 3 days.

And then there's the ECMWF

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

The latest forecast shows the band tonight all rain or sleet to lower levels but chance of snow for a time in central parts of England. 

Didn't look good to be honest.

Is this into the nighttime? 

What a disappointment though I it was somewhat clear that this going to be difficult to pull off and in this instance it hasn't pulled off 

We gone from a large part of central England at least having a covering of snowfall to only the favoured parts of Wales,Scotland and the lucky areas of hilly parts of England getting any snowfall 

Sadly the lesson being is uppers do really matter especially in these cases as the NH Pattern is being put to waste 

We have to look for the next few days to see where the board agreement will be sorted and see where we go from there though it's unlikely there will be a return to mild weather 

[saintkip]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is this into the nighttime? 

What a disappointment though I it was somewhat clear that this going to be difficult to pull off and in this instance it hasn't pulled off 

We gone from a large part of central England at least having a covering of snowfall to only the favoured parts of Wales,Scotland and the lucky areas of hilly parts of England getting any snowfall 

Sadly the lesson being is uppers do really matter especially in these cases as the NH Pattern is being put to waste 

We have to look for the next few days to see where the board agreement will be sorted and see where we go from there though it's unlikely there will be a return to mild weather 

Hasn’t happened yet

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Kevo22 said:

I agree regarding the music these days, but I think it may be something to do with getting old.

No it’s not about age. I just feel the music now doesn’t have the same arrangements like it did 30 plus years ago. All the music now is very bland, and no variety of instruments like percussion, horns, guitar, base, keyboards or piano feature like they used to.

Most urban music is very homogenous, and plastic sounding. 

[tight isobar]

Anyway- nice ta- see a bit of back slapping in here this arvo... rather than the usual back stabbing!!.. bk to the models....

[Eagle Eye]

The latest Cold Spell was predicted for the 21st, it was 2 Days out I expect the Same to happen with the next Cold Spell pinpointed by @chionomaniac but until @Steve Murr is definitly on board we need to be wary. 

[Biggin]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Afternoon all - I’m a bit late to the party today....though not in the same league as @Scott Ingham who has pulled an all nighter and seems still be be going. As others have said - get to bed man!

Interesting data this morning - a little wobble from GFS overnight but nothing out of the ordinary in that regard. The models are beginning to pick up on change data post New Year and it will widen the range of solutions.

So where are we? In no particular order...

Momentum products show that we are in the downward slope of the most recent phase. Frictional torque has topped out and is likely falling already (chart dated 24/12)

and mountain torque is also falling - part of the ongoing wax/wane cycle and the never ending attempt of the earth and atmosphere to move momentum to net zero.

The next pacific jet streak on the back of the significant EAMT first widely advertised by Eric Webb on Twitter is moving into the semi-reliable window and this will signal the next upward momentum phase. As this jet ploughs through the pacific it will act as an eddy creator, and given the relatively weak zonal wind speed at the moment the wave breaks will be more significant. Always easier to break a relatively static pattern than cause an eddy in an already swift moving pattern.

 

 

Given lag impacts of this streak what is extended NWP looking like today? The gfs op is odd - reignites the Atlantic and then responds to the momentum state by throwing up a peculiar ridge from Canada to Greenland. 

 

I suspect the gfs bias towards a cyclonic Atlantic signal is causing it some grief here. Better is the ECM solution which we can only see out to 240 but shows a more likely mid Atlantic ridge.

 

 

With a trough already embedded over Europe - and assuming this is the “correct” path - then greater intensification of the cold over NW Europe will follow. Strat products flag this pattern well, with the forecast for the strat/trop boundary maintaining a strong Euro trough signal

 

and GFS at 240 also shows a Euro trough signal

 

Putting this all together....we have a waning phase about to start, but without much zonal momentum the pattern will stay blocked. Then the next uptick (wax) after New Year that will reenergise the ridge, reinforce the Euro trough and intensify the cold. Note this is all BEFORE any SSW impacts. Not time yet to muse with any precision on these, though I’m sticking with a projection of a split.

Coldish week this week. Staying so beyond New Year. And then cold digging in harder by zero hour of 7 Jan. @chionomaniac may well be correct in aiming at Jan 10....but for variety I’ll hold my crosshairs on Jan 7. Beyond that? Wait and see...

 

 

I knew it a little ice age on the way thats why we have all been told to stay at home

[Ols500]

Just now, MKN said:

That would be an extremely poor outcome. 

Yeah this whole event looks quite pathetic very washed down. The precipitation band looks very small, almost like a passing heavy shower compared to a system moving through. I wonder why there is so little precipitation

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

Yeah this whole event looks quite pathetic very washed down. The precipitation band looks very small, almost like a passing heavy shower compared to a system moving through. I wonder why there is so little precipitation

Shouldn’t be a surprise - it was never looking like anything substantial. 

[StormyLincs]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

No it’s not about age. I just feel the music now doesn’t have the same arrangements like it did 30 plus years ago. All the music now is very bland, and no variety of instruments like percussion, horns, guitar, base, keyboards or piano feature like they used to.

Most urban music is very homogenous, and plastic sounding. 

Well I agree with all of that but I just put it down to my age. The kids seem to like it. 

[Country Boy]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Afternoon all - I’m a bit late to the party today....though not in the same league as @Scott Ingham who has pulled an all nighter and seems still be be going. As others have said - get to bed man!

Interesting data this morning - a little wobble from GFS overnight but nothing out of the ordinary in that regard. The models are beginning to pick up on change data post New Year and it will widen the range of solutions.

So where are we? In no particular order...

Momentum products show that we are in the downward slope of the most recent phase. Frictional torque has topped out and is likely falling already (chart dated 24/12)

and mountain torque is also falling - part of the ongoing wax/wane cycle and the never ending attempt of the earth and atmosphere to move momentum to net zero.

The next pacific jet streak on the back of the significant EAMT first widely advertised by Eric Webb on Twitter is moving into the semi-reliable window and this will signal the next upward momentum phase. As this jet ploughs through the pacific it will act as an eddy creator, and given the relatively weak zonal wind speed at the moment the wave breaks will be more significant. Always easier to break a relatively static pattern than cause an eddy in an already swift moving pattern.

 

 

Given lag impacts of this streak what is extended NWP looking like today? The gfs op is odd - reignites the Atlantic and then responds to the momentum state by throwing up a peculiar ridge from Canada to Greenland. 

 

I suspect the gfs bias towards a cyclonic Atlantic signal is causing it some grief here. Better is the ECM solution which we can only see out to 240 but shows a more likely mid Atlantic ridge.

 

 

With a trough already embedded over Europe - and assuming this is the “correct” path - then greater intensification of the cold over NW Europe will follow. Strat products flag this pattern well, with the forecast for the strat/trop boundary maintaining a strong Euro trough signal

 

and GFS at 240 also shows a Euro trough signal

 

Putting this all together....we have a waning phase about to start, but without much zonal momentum the pattern will stay blocked. Then the next uptick (wax) after New Year that will reenergise the ridge, reinforce the Euro trough and intensify the cold. Note this is all BEFORE any SSW impacts. Not time yet to muse with any precision on these, though I’m sticking with a projection of a split.

Coldish week this week. Staying so beyond New Year. And then cold digging in harder by zero hour of 7 Jan. @chionomaniac may well be correct in aiming at Jan 10....but for variety I’ll hold my crosshairs on Jan 7. Beyond that? Wait and see...

 

 

Well it's my Birthday 7th January,  I shall see if your post is correct......Hoping for a white birthday

[Snipper]

How much cherry picking going on as far as the models?

[Deep Snow please]

23 minutes ago, Snipper said:

How much cherry picking going on as far as the models?

 

An insane amount. You see the issue with southern coldies if they could take a chart showing sub-Saharan temperatures across the entirety of Western Europe and convince themselves that it could become a beast from the east with a little bit of shift in it's positioning. If you want snow, move up north - and up a hill - currently being treat to a nice sleety mix and the good part of winter has only just begun. 

[Frosty_wsm]

Can you believe some were jumping ship & calling it all over after the overnight gfs run lol. Actually I reckon they we just saying what they were to get a reaction but hey ho, all forums have people like that! 

[Snipper]

41 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

An insane amount. You see the issue with southern coldies if they could take a chart showing sub-Saharan temperatures across the entirety of Western Europe and convince themselves that it could become a beast from the east with a little bit of shift in it's positioning. If you want snow, move up north - and up a hill - currently being treat to a nice sleety mix and the good part of winter has only just begun. 

All the best snow events come out of almost nowhere. 

[ancientsolar]

18 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Hello all! I've been following this forum for near a decade, finally created an account. (call me SOS for short)

Still doesn't look fully settled on the track of wintry mix/snow tonight/tomorrow across southern parts of UK. Will have to keep an eye on the radar as well as possibly models later.

GFS12 looks interesting on Saturday/Sunday, that low development looks kinda similar to the 5/6 Jan 2010 low. 

It probably won't happen but it does highlight the possibility of surprises as this week continues. 

One to watch closely.

I have a video of that very storm here -- (if we get another, I promise a better video  )

 

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

All the best snow events come out of almost nowhere. 

 

This wasn't out of nowhere, has been forecast for a good few days to a week. The difference is rather than sitting in Essex wishing upon a star for snow, I live somewhere that reliably gets it each winter. A lot of these miseries in the mad thread should try it. 

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

I have a video of that very storm here -- (if we get another, I promise a better video  )

 

Thats not a storm...this is a storm a brisk easterly 2013 our back road near Kirkburton

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by winterof79

[sparky1972]

i see there is alot of excitement in the mod thread again this evening, i have noticed in the winters i have been lurking here is the ebb and flow of the model output and the negitive and positive output, I.E, if there is potential cold/snow showing around lunchtime output, it gains momuntum and the evening runs are fantastic, then i check the mod thread the following morning and its all doom and gloom, lunchtime the positivity starts to return, evening output even better, following morning output seems not so good, is this do do with data input or do i read to much into it, lol