Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[mathematician]

18 minutes ago, Wynter said:

Then report the post if you think it needs it. It's the cold and snow chase in Winter that really brings this forum alive. If it wasn't for the snow chasers, this forum probably wouldn't exist.

Absolutely, without the snow chasers this forum would be dead 

[joggs]

50 minutes ago, Wynter said:

Then report the post if you think it needs it. It's the cold and snow chase in Winter that really brings this forum alive. If it wasn't for the snow chasers, this forum probably wouldn't exist.

I'd be reporting nearly every other post......

[joggs]

Looks like the mods have a grip on it this morning.

Edited December 4, 2020 by joggs

[JoeShmoe]

Have to say this was extraordinary last night !

Edinburgh hit by 'thundersnow' as 'sonic boom' wakes residents | UK news | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Unusually loud thunder claps heard over Scottish capital during rare meteorological...

 

 

[Weatherman_93]

Snowed overnight here. As i write this most of it has gone.

[SqueakheartLW]

CHRISTMAS DAY PREDICTIONS FROM CFS and now GFS Extended

Now that it is now December the format of these Christmas updates is going to change somewhat. As other models apart from CFS are now in range of Christmas or soon will be then there will be less focus on the CFS now. However for today only CFS and GFS extended are currently in range.

First I have combined all of the CFS figures right back from September till the last time I checked the CFS 9 monthly models.

Combined totals 26/09/2020 to 04/12/2020 CFS 9 Monthly

Temps          0z           6z          12z         18z      TOTALS   Precip           0z           6z         12z         18z      TOTALS
V Mild                                                                         0          V Dry                                                         1            1
Mild               8             5             4             7             24         Dry               11          20          17           21          69
Average       29          37           30           25           121         Average      38          33          34           32         137
Cold              28          17           29           28          102         Wet              18          13          16           13          61
V Cold            2            8             4             7             21          V Wet                          1                                          1
LEADER    AV/CD       AV       AV/CD       CD       AV/CD      LEADER       AV          AV          AV          AV          AV

Overall it would seem that an average or colder than average Christmas Day is most likely which will mean chilly and frosty at night and cold by day or wet with a chance of a marginal snow event at the other extreme but with very cold and mild the outlier options then a mild and dry or mild and wet or an ice day with a definite snow threat are less likely. As very mild took no hits what so ever then it would seem a very mild Christmas is very unlikely to happen.

Now for my first 2 days of GFS extended data for you. As this only appears to be an option for the GFS 12z run then I am somewhat disappointed to miss out on extended data for the 00z, 06z and 18z runs too. However instead of just 4 runs per day with the CFS 9 month run the GFS extended has the control and 30 other member runs which increases the accuracy no doubt. A total of 62 options already over just 2 days and when the standard GFS comes into range it will be 128 options per day

02/12/2020 to 03/12/2020 Data GFS Extended
Temps        2/12       3/12          Precip         2/12       3/12
V Mild                                          V Dry 
Mild                5           2              Dry                 7            8
Average        13         14             Average        17          15
Cold               11         15            Wet                 7            8
V Cold            2                            V Wet
LEADER     AV/CD    AV/CD        LEADER        AV          AV

After just 2 days worth of GFS Extended it would seem just like CFS that average to colder than average is favoured along with average precipitation levels

ECMWF Charts

Now time to feature the ECMWF Charts since my last Christmas update on 24/11/2020

500mb charts

The 2m temp charts to go with these

What a big pattern flip this has been since my last update. All of the ECMWF charts last time were zonal westerly or mild high pressure options. Now all of the charts are showing easterly winds and at most average temperatures but the blues are close to us so there is a chance of below average temperatures in the Christmas period at least. After seeing these the chances of a white Christmas or at the very least a cold and frosty one has increased somewhat

My next update is on 14/12/2020

[Freeze]

So close, snow in coastal East Sussex, Kent and Essex but nothing here, 6c now so no chance of anything now, I don’t know what I was expecting really as I know nothing ever happens in this part of the country, but I still always get sucked in! Same happens in summer with thunderstorms. Same places up north that get all the summer storms and the snow, don’t know why some up there complain about their climate being boring try living here lol.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Freeze

[Dorsetbred]

<RANT>You just have to love the M.O.D. forum, EVERY year it melts down, as it moves more away from Model Outlook in to "Oh look it will snow charts" and EVERY year the same thing happens.....BURNOUT.... after the initial ballistic session where people use the models to nowcast, its almost like the bubble burst. And then Life returns to the Atlantic flow, people become normal again. Of course one cant post this in the MOD thread, but it does sure as heck make me giggle year on year the same things happen. Come on peeps, it is what it is, accept we are an island in an Atlantic airflow, where luck rather than models determine whether we see a cold winter (complete with wintery precipitation, i.e. snow and not cold rain) in the new Globally Warmed environment..

</RANT>

[hillbilly]

Cannot complain here, a covering of snow on higher ground and has been snowing lower down here today,a far cry from a few years of recent when we have had to wait well into January for anything wintery!

[qwertyK]

Very cold day here, I'm guessing it was around 4C max, though for some reason the weather channel has this weird phenonemon where it increases the maxima throughout the day despite other places staying at around 4/5C, it reckoned today had a high of 6/7C which is bullsh*t. It also said snow in the morning but I didn't see any. No snowm but quite a lot in north essex. However, monday is looking EXTREMELY cold - BBC and weather channel suggesting highs of 3C, but other forecasters have it as low as ONE with tempreatures remaining at freezing for most of the day. This cold is very, very early! These sort of tempreatures are still quite unusual in the middle of january and february, never mind early December.

[SLEETY]

fail from the met office again,no mention of snow falling in the  let alone settling in places in their 4 am forecast for the se and e of england.

[Met.]

It was the coldest day of the year here yesterday, which was still not cold enough to get lying snow. I haven't seen lying snow since April 2018. Now that's a long time for somewhere in Northern England.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Thundershine

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

fail from the met office again,no mention of snow falling in the  let alone settling in places in their 4 am forecast for the se and e of england.

The NW England 4am text forecast is poor 

A fine and dry day with sunny spells.

Today:

A largely dry morning with early cloud clearing to sunny spells. The dry weather will persist across the region into the afternoon. Light winds. Feeling cold.

Look at the radar and there are showery outbreaks across the region, They only have to look at the radar at 3am, to see that text forecast was going to be in trouble.

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Weather-history

[sparky1972]

well i have to say after the most surprising snowfall here of recent years yesterday, we are just hoping that was not an early winter tease and the rest of winter is not the normal mild, wet and boring, lol

[Relativistic]

12 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well i have to say after the most surprising snowfall here of recent years yesterday, we are just hoping that was not an early winter tease and the rest of winter is not the normal mild, wet and boring, lol

When I lived in Chelmsford/Birmingham early December snowfall was always a good sign. Not many years to go off, but early December 2010, early December 2012, and early December 2017 all produced snow, and all three of the Winters that followed featured record-breaking cold at some point or another. The December 2012 snowfall (eight years ago today, in fact) was most similar to this year's event.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have issued a level 2 alert for severe cold weather in northern England until 6pm on Tuesday

[Mapantz]

Well, there has been nothing seasonal about the weather here at all. October was the wettest month I had recorded. November had above average rainfall and December has already gotten to 46mm. It's not far off of a repeat of last year.

The rainfall this morning caused flooding in parts of Corfe castle, Swanage, Poole and Bournemouth.

This year, September until this point of Winter has seen the least amount of frosts since 2012.

A dreadful start, as it usually is.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

When I lived in Chelmsford/Birmingham early December snowfall was always a good sign. Not many years to go off, but early December 2010, early December 2012, and early December 2017 all produced snow, and all three of the Winters that followed featured record-breaking cold at some point or another. The December 2012 snowfall (eight years ago today, in fact) was most similar to this year's event.

Hoping we don't see a flip mid Dec as happened in 2012 and 2017. Could live with a 2008 episode, with cold arriving about 23 instead of Boxing Day as happened then..

Alas I'm not seeing any definite signal of a raging jet come mid month, so could well be different to all those years mentioned. Last time we had a relatively chilly Dec throughout without flips was 2005, Atlantic was very quiet. 2001 another example. 2010 not referenced because that was a severe extreme. Not often we have a December without some mild zonal Atlantic stuff, 2009 delivered such at the start. Mind 1996 was a good example of a Dec that saw a fight between Atlantic and blocking.

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Hoping we don't see a flip mid Dec as happened in 2012 and 2017. Could live with a 2008 episode, with cold arriving about 23 instead of Boxing Day as happened then..

Alas I'm not seeing any definite signal of a raging jet come mid month, so could well be different to all those years mentioned. Last time we had a relatively chilly Dec throughout without flips was 2005, Atlantic was very quiet. 2001 another example. 2010 not referenced because that was a severe extreme. Not often we have a December without some mild zonal Atlantic stuff, 2009 delivered such at the start. Mind 1996 was a good example of a Dec that saw a fight between Atlantic and blocking.

The thought of another period like the second half of December 2012 is horrible. I'd actually rate it worse than 2013 as it was so dull and at least Christmas 2013 was bright and chilly.

Wouldn't mind a 2017 scenario, it brought a re-run of the first half of the month with another snowy slider on Boxing Day night and a sunny chilly period before the stormy end. Just a shame so much of January 2018 was so bland.

2005 continues to be a winter I am fond of, probably for the lack of Atlantic weather. Even the break through of the Atlantic at the end of December only lasted a few days and we were back into a chilly easterly by January 5th.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

The thought of another period like the second half of December 2012 is horrible. I'd actually rate it worse than 2013 as it was so dull and at least Christmas 2013 was bright and chilly.

Wouldn't mind a 2017 scenario, it brought a re-run of the first half of the month with another snowy slider on Boxing Day night and a sunny chilly period before the stormy end. Just a shame so much of January 2018 was so bland.

2005 continues to be a winter I am fond of, probably for the lack of Atlantic weather. Even the break through of the Atlantic at the end of December only lasted a few days and we were back into a chilly easterly by January 5th.

I think your mixing up 05. Pressure built over Christmas for an easterly, low pressure only broke through on the 31st.

[MP-R]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I think your mixing up 05. Pressure built over Christmas for an easterly, low pressure only broke through on the 31st.

Exactly, the 31st is the end of December. One low passed through, filled and sank and we were back into chilly (albeit weak) easterlies a few days later.

It was also the front coming on from the west that brought Decembers only snowfall here that year.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, I loved the winter of 06. Cool, frosty, sunny. Got the easterly snow her but the front was snow to sleet.

[Daniel*]

I have produced a winter forecast for winter 2020/21, I put a lot of time/effort in it! Feel free to check it out.  

Winter 2020-21: A Dark Horse?

WWW.THESNOWDREAMERWXBLOG.COM

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Well here we are, again, meteorological winter is here, and increasing numbers of...

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Daniel*

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Nothing to keep cold fans happy next week. Just lows piling in. Just wet and chilly. Perhaps milder next week. Which is great in my book.

[Catacol]

11 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Well, there has been nothing seasonal about the weather here at all. October was the wettest month I had recorded. November had above average rainfall and December has already gotten to 46mm. It's not far off of a repeat of last year.

The rainfall this morning caused flooding in parts of Corfe castle, Swanage, Poole and Bournemouth.

This year, September until this point of Winter has seen the least amount of frosts since 2012.

A dreadful start, as it usually is.

Strange. Noto too far from you, I've scraped ice off the car several times this season already (more than in many others by this point) and November wasn't especially wet - anecdotally anyway. Just shows the impact of local variations I suppose....