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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    Perhaps those that were going to ask Steve Murr to come back, should tell him not to bother....

     

     

     

    Again.

    Thats the reason why he probably has not come back on cos it will only end one way as usual!!i said that earlier this morning but my post got removed!!!!no need for it!!

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    anim_ebt2.gif

    Looking like 2 Northernly Tooplers in Quick time from the 06z the 12z doesn't get to This yet could bring Some Snowy showers to Parts of The Uk

    So who knows a Snowy Christmas May Be Possible. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    C178E47A-0FCE-4A2A-A959-C27865FF604B.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

    Funny you know exactly how the usual suspects are going to post in the model thread, peeing on others bonfires. More gratuitous use of the ignore function needed I think...

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Me watching the ECM Output tonite

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    1 hour ago, ribster said:

    Funny you know exactly how the usual suspects are going to post in the model thread, peeing on others bonfires. More gratuitous use of the ignore function needed I think...

    Same posters have nothing to say about ECM 😆😆

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    My local weather forecasters are having none of this cold over Christmas malarky. 9c cloudy for the festive period here.🤥

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    If anything highlights the futility of putting stock into each run, today would be it.

    Parts of 18z gone off on one in FI. Tomorrow will surely walk it back.

    Volatility like this is sometimes a prelude to interesting weather down the road though. 

    Edited by Number 23
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    Posted
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme seasons
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent

    Chop and change for the next severn day period. Temperatures above average with a continuous Atlantic feed. I’m just about ready now to right December off in terms of a half decent cold spell. Very depressing times for us coldies. January/ feb better deliver the goods is all I say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    Gfs Ensembles all over the time place past 26th, really unsure looking beyond the reliable period is going to give away much. Not going to lose the plot over anything at this stage 

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    those of us who are looking for seasonal Christmas weather even a bit of sleet and snow I won’t post it here but take a look at the BBC monthly outlook a very interesting and quite enjoyable read. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    34 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

    those of us who are looking for seasonal Christmas weather even a bit of sleet and snow I won’t post it here but take a look at the BBC monthly outlook a very interesting and quite enjoyable read. 🙂

    Sounds like they are going by EC46 guidance with higher pressure to the north and east and lower pressure to the south, could be looking at slider gate come early January, hopefully we can sustain colder air around our shores so the fronts can bump into them but let’s not get ahead ourselves let’s get the next 7 days patterns nailed first for a Christmas chill and hopefully a few surprises of a snowy kind ❄️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

     

     

     

    92DE0E64-5C51-4542-AB8A-DAC3831769CE.thumb.gif.732b2701db522e57903fbf15d0c5f260.gifF54F5FF1-FAF6-4089-A38E-967E4B37CDCD.thumb.gif.dc7aff250284568ad8dd209ece72a641.gif

    That’s a cracking day 9 ECM 0z ensemble mean for crimbo day!...fingers 🤞...all this cold chasing is quite exhausting but I think it’s going to bear fruit during the second half of next week...hopefully! 🥶:santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:😜 

     

    6B94F8B2-C57E-4BEC-A371-AAB5FAA9BA88.png

    or it will all go the shape of a certain fruit🍐

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    No they don’t people aren’t stupid like you make out, and well if we didn’t talk about it what would be the point in this thread? What’s generated some excitement is a cold snap, nothing impressive, coinciding around Xmas this is why it has got more attention I think, rather sad I know but a small hope for something more substantial following on. People are realistic and realise what we want... is probably not what we’re going to get. To many this is a form of escapism and expectations are low. People may get excited at one model output but don’t interpret that as they expect it to happen, people are prepared to be disappointed it’s something we’re very good at. The long range ens guidance for some days has been very good and consistent on showing a change to mild regime, credit where it’s due, it’s ticking down nicely for some seasonal weather at least. 

    Sad! What wanting a white Christmas? When the models have been showing a possibility. Give over. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa

    Why are the same people patting themselves on the back again claiming it’s all over and I told you so etc etc when we have the Beeb yesterday AND today plus met office saying they still don’t know what’s going to happen Christmas and beyond!

    listen to the real experts for a bit longer before we write another set of obituaries of I said it first and calling people out and taking some kind pleasure about something still 8+ days away that hasn’t happened yet!!

    jeez

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Looks like the nappy gang are out in twisted pants full force this evening. Nibbles galore. 

    First of all, I didn't say that EVERYONE believed everything. However year after year new posters to the forum, or those that are less experienced DO believe the hype around charts at T240. It's worth reminding them that taking the models seriously at that range aren't worth the internet bandwidth they take up. I'm also fully aware that the notion behind an internet forum is to look at things in the future and discuss what may or MAY NOT happen. That can be respected, but a street walks two ways. If I don't want to rely on weather charts nearly 10 days down the line coming to fruition to effect the emotional balance of my evening's postings then that should also be respected. 

    36 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    That 3 inches of snow must have been imaginary 

    I am an avid fan of SNOWY cold weather, couldn't think of a worse form of weather than a dry humid heatwave. The be all and end all is that we are now 5 weeks into winter and bar a bit of wet slop for all but 0.01% of the entire of the nation that caught a locally period transient spell of wet sleet and snow (Again check the wording of my post regarding a chart showing snow and a notable cold snowy spell not actually verifying). 

    34 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Extended eps while continuing to show low heights over Europe now indicates a flatter Atlantic profile as hinted in the day 10 mean.  Still reasonable but trending the wrong way I am afraid.

    This should come as no surprise, today's charts have all shown an increased trend for a weak Atlantic ridge and less in the way of cold conditions suitable to snow at the surface. It must be the 3rd or 4th time already this winter that 'all roads lead to Rome' has been touted after a few promising days of model output. Only for a quick trend for the Atlantic to take more control than previously thought. 

    Obviously things are looking good for multiple bites at the cherry. But let's not sugar coat things. Today see's a trend away from a Cold Christmas spell, to something more mobile and perhaps milder. Too much residual energy off the eastern seaboard and unfortunately that's just the way our climatology works. What we don't want to do is continually hope cast 10 days ahead of ourselves only to get to that said date and then add more weeks of waiting....if this ridge completely fails as it looks like doing, what then? 1st week of Jan? 2nd week of Jan? That's half of winter gone. 

    If ever there was a year for the models to play nicely with us, it's this year - we deserve it. As of yet, snow starved Britain continues.

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Looks like the nappy gang are out in twisted pants full force this evening. Nibbles galore. 

    First of all, I didn't say that EVERYONE believed everything. However year after year new posters to the forum, or those that are less experienced DO believe the hype around charts at T240. It's worth reminding them that taking the models seriously at that range aren't worth the internet bandwidth they take up. I'm also fully aware that the notion behind an internet forum is to look at things in the future and discuss what may or MAY NOT happen. That can be respected, but a street walks two ways. If I don't want to rely on weather charts nearly 10 days down the line coming to fruition to effect the emotional balance of my evening's postings then that should also be respected. 

     

    I am an avid fan of SNOWY cold weather, couldn't think of a worse form of weather than a dry humid heatwave. The be all and end all is that we are now 5 weeks into winter and bar a bit of wet slop for all but 0.01% of the entire of the nation that caught a locally period transient spell of wet sleet and snow (Again check the wording of my post regarding a chart showing snow and a notable cold snowy spell not actually verifying). 

     

    This should come as no surprise, today's charts have all shown an increased trend for a weak Atlantic ridge and less in the way of cold conditions suitable to snow at the surface. It must be the 3rd or 4th time already this winter that 'all roads lead to Rome' has been touted after a few promising days of model output. Only for a quick trend for the Atlantic to take more control than previously thought. 

    Obviously things are looking good for multiple bites at the cherry. But let's not sugar coat things. Today see's a trend away from a Cold Christmas spell, to something more mobile and perhaps milder. Too much residual energy off the eastern seaboard and unfortunately that's just the way our climatology works. What we don't want to do is continually hope cast 10 days ahead of ourselves only to get to that said date and then add more weeks of waiting....if this ridge completely fails as it looks like doing, what then? 1st week of Jan? 2nd week of Jan? That's half of winter gone. 

    If ever there was a year for the models to play nicely with us, it's this year - we deserve it. As of yet, snow starved Britain continues.

    Buddy the charts have changed and they will change again don’t get so caught up in it if you can’t handle the change in fortunes 

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    12 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Looks like the nappy gang are out in twisted pants full force this evening. Nibbles galore. 

    First of all, I didn't say that EVERYONE believed everything. However year after year new posters to the forum, or those that are less experienced DO believe the hype around charts at T240. It's worth reminding them that taking the models seriously at that range aren't worth the internet bandwidth they take up. I'm also fully aware that the notion behind an internet forum is to look at things in the future and discuss what may or MAY NOT happen. That can be respected, but a street walks two ways. If I don't want to rely on weather charts nearly 10 days down the line coming to fruition to effect the emotional balance of my evening's postings then that should also be respected. 

    I am an avid fan of SNOWY cold weather, couldn't think of a worse form of weather than a dry humid heatwave. The be all and end all is that we are now 5 weeks into winter and bar a bit of wet slop for all but 0.01% of the entire of the nation that caught a locally period transient spell of wet sleet and snow (Again check the wording of my post regarding a chart showing snow and a notable cold snowy spell not actually verifying). 

    This should come as no surprise, today's charts have all shown an increased trend for a weak Atlantic ridge and less in the way of cold conditions suitable to snow at the surface. It must be the 3rd or 4th time already this winter that 'all roads lead to Rome' has been touted after a few promising days of model output. Only for a quick trend for the Atlantic to take more control than previously thought. 

    Obviously things are looking good for multiple bites at the cherry. But let's not sugar coat things. Today see's a trend away from a Cold Christmas spell, to something more mobile and perhaps milder. Too much residual energy off the eastern seaboard and unfortunately that's just the way our climatology works. What we don't want to do is continually hope cast 10 days ahead of ourselves only to get to that said date and then add more weeks of waiting....if this ridge completely fails as it looks like doing, what then? 1st week of Jan? 2nd week of Jan? That's half of winter gone. 

    If ever there was a year for the models to play nicely with us, it's this year - we deserve it. As of yet, snow starved Britain continues.

    Again take a few days off you shouldn’t feel this way 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.

    Guys, an experienced head here. I have been on this forum since 2003 and see this every single year. It is so bad I barely post anymore but I can’t bare it so I have logged in. Last nights posts were an outright embarrassment from some of you, completely over-hyping a slight chance of abit of cold weather that was nothing out of the ordinary. The models are not hinting at anything  particularly significant and please bear in mind that when they do they 905% of the time usually downgrade massively. Experience plays a huge part in model watching, as an experienced member of the forum with a degree in Science and weather I am urging everyone to show some level-headidness. This winter is already shaping up to be a standard modern UK winter: ie/ mild, wet with the occasional snowfalls chiefly linked to high ground in north England and Scotland. Thank you, Barmada Casten.

    Edited by Barmada_Casten
    Grammar
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    37 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Guys, an experienced head here. I have been on this forum since 2003 and see this every single year. It is so bad I barely post anymore but I can’t bare it so I have logged in. Last nights posts were an outright embarrassment from some of you, completely over-hyping a slight chance of abit of cold weather that was nothing out of the ordinary. The models are not hinting at anything  particularly significant and please bear in mind that when they do they 905% of the time usually downgrade massively. Experience plays a huge part in model watching, as an experienced member of the forum with a degree in Science and weather I am urging everyone to show some level-headidness. This winter is already shaping up to be a standard modern UK winter: ie/ mild, wet with the occasional snowfalls chiefly linked to high ground in north England and Scotland. Thank you, Barmada Casten.

    I understand what you’re saying and I do agree that some people take every operational run too literally, but I think in the most part people just want to admire some of the wild and wintry output that gets shown in the extended ranges with fellow weather enthusiasts. Pretty much everyone in here knows that most of the severe and wintry output that gets shown in FI is pretty far fetched and unlikely to come to fruition, but it has been a tough year for everyone and I don’t see anything wrong with people looking for a bit of hope and joy in the model output.😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport
    1 hour ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Guys, an experienced head here. I have been on this forum since 2003 and see this every single year. It is so bad I barely post anymore but I can’t bare it so I have logged in. Last nights posts were an outright embarrassment from some of you, completely over-hyping a slight chance of abit of cold weather that was nothing out of the ordinary. The models are not hinting at anything  particularly significant and please bear in mind that when they do they 905% of the time usually downgrade massively. Experience plays a huge part in model watching, as an experienced member of the forum with a degree in Science and weather I am urging everyone to show some level-headidness. This winter is already shaping up to be a standard modern UK winter: ie/ mild, wet with the occasional snowfalls chiefly linked to high ground in north England and Scotland. Thank you, Barmada Casten.

    Hi guys experienced head here I've got a degree in mechanical engineering and I've experienced weather every day for 52 years. (sarcasm)  THIS IS A MODEL DISCUSSION FORUM  ie people discuss what the model shows on any particular run be it good or bad and what weather they may produce should they verify, if you feel embarrassed reading some posts or it annoys your superior intellect  then do not login and especially do not disrespect posters with self righteous comments. 

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