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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I wrote a post and then lost it .....

    amyway .....looking better for coldies post Xmas ......

     

    Have you checked down between the cushions on the sofa? Always losing stuff down there 😂😜.

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

    Looking at recent charts, yes. 

    Well, it ain't model-bias that's curtailed my favourite hobby, of lamppost watching!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Well, it ain't model-bias that's curtailed my favourite hobby, of lamppost watching!

    That's a good hobby isn't it but I prefer watching paint dry. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I still think there's a decent chance of winter synoptics to emerge in the second half of this winter, while the Atlantic has woken up again after a bit of a nap, it doesn't seem to be quite as dominant as in some recent winters, and there does seem to be potential. This past two weeks, the Russian blocking high was never that great a sign for two reasons, it wasn't structurally very cold, and it was sitting at rather low latitudes in Russia making it more of a promoter of southerly type blocking than we need to see for good winter synoptics. Granted it had the effect of slowing down the Atlantic and giving that one interval of locally sourced cold air, but that always looked to have a short life expectancy.

    I would say perhaps this winter will go more like 2013 or 2018 and produce some good results later into February or even March. 

    Yes the trends are always rising and the new normals are mostly about 0.2 C deg higher than the ones they will replace. That has been the tendency since about the middle of the 20th century. But in fact, the period from 1896 to 1939 had fewer memorable cold winters than the period from 1940 to 1983 (similar lengths) and for that matter, even 1984 to present (not quite having filled out another 44 years) is probably preferable to 1896-1939 for cold winter fans. 

    So in some ways we are more in a steady state than declining long-term environment. Of course if you go back further than 1896 then the frequency picks up considerably but that climate is long gone and won't be back any time soon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    3 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

    this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles 😞

     

     

     

    And how often have we seen long range forecasts fail? We may not get a 62/63 big freeze but we have far too much of the winter remaining to be writing off any prospects of a wintry spell. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Deep cold or deep heat? That is the question! Just don't put deep heat on the backburner...? Then again, short-term pain equals long-term gain.😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Cold cold whefore art thou cold

    Edited by XanderP007
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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    Before this winter I mentioned that after 88-89 a 89-90 followed and maybe after a record breaking 19-20 we are going towards the same pattern during 20-21.

    For here things look pretty awful.

    December 2019 +3 above normal

    January 2020 + 6,5 above normal

    February 2020 +5 above normal

    And this winter starts with

    November 2020 +4-5 above normal

    December 2020 (we have not yet recorded a minus temperature with an average min of -5!!!) I believe and looking towards the output from the models, at least +3 above normal (probably even more).

    Should I moan now??😄

    I don't ask for a crazy 2010, but at least something close to normality!!(even though this is a hard word, I believe we live in times of a new "normality")

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    1 minute ago, danm said:

    And how often have we seen long range forecasts fail? We may not get a 62/63 big freeze but we have far too much of the winter remaining to be writing off any prospects of a wintry spell. 

    True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

    True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable

    Yes true, but I can’t even count the number of times I’ve seen our prospects change at relatively short notice. And even in mild winters, we have seen times where there has been a great few days of winter weather. It’s rare in this country to get a prolonged freeze, such as December 2010 or 62/63. That’s why we talk about them so much. It’s much more common for us to have typical, British winters with predominantly mild, wet weather punctuated by a week or two of cold and snow. Jan 87 was one such instance - an exceptional week surrounded by an average, unremarkable winter overall. If we were at the 1st of Feb I’d maybe say yes, our chances are now minimal, but it’s the 12th of December. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Fair points there @Barometer Cat, we cannae, of course, technically write off a front-loaded winter this early in proceedings... But we can worry:

    Like a game of chess (stay awake now?) the Snow Queen's gambit has already been played, and the days are running out... and I wouldn't want to see an entire winter loaded into the next 19 days, in any case!

    Well, there's another good reason why I gave up with making winter-predictions -- the emotional cost of all the mental gymnastics, in trying to justify/defend something that had invariably gone tits-up by Xmas, was simply too much...😁

    And to sort of back my rantings up, this mornings GFS 6z throws out more favorable options that have not yet happened but that are just as easily happen as to not happen but depends if something else happens first that has not happened yet... yes that! 👍

    The mod forum does need to look at the what ifs and maybes in FI, it's what makes it so entertaining and in some cases addictive!  Even if everyone KNOWS they won't verify. Enjoy!

     

    Edited by Barometer Cat
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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Things looking slightly better as we head towards Christmas, indeed, the Atlantic reset is maybe what we need to get some fresh air into Europe and sweep away those ridiculously high uppers which were caused by that useless Russian High.

    The Greenland icesheet is always cold unlike Russia so a spell of North westerlies into Western Europe would be a good thing.

    I fear however for a El Nina January which makes a mild month likely, combine that with a post Christmas Covid lockdown and no deal Brexit I think the UK faces a very grim mid winter.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    7 hours ago, sunnijim said:

    I really despair of the this forum at times, as much as I enjoy reviewing it daily, this morning there is again page after page of non model related discussion.

    People moaning and having a go at each other all allowed to remain in place here!

    The disappointment from me comes from the fact that the moment I have ever put something here slightly off topic ( recent replys to the localised snowfall) it gets shifted as off topic!

    Fair enough I think, even though my attempts to join the debate here snuffed out once again, I can't post 'on topic' as much as I would like because I'm simply not as knowledgeable as most here.

    Please,if there are rules,enforce them properly.

    Easy to moderate a 'Sunnijim' who rarely posts,not so easy to upset a self styled 'big hitter' perhaps?

    Being active in the Model thread last night, I should have moved/hidden some of the posts in their to be honest. I admit I’m not so good at telling members off and is something I could be better at.

    After all, sniping and off topic posts don’t have their place in their or any other thread, although I think having a post that is slightly off-topic, including yours, being moved/deleted feels unfair. Different if it was mostly/fully off topic, or was insulting. But not really if it’s just a little off topic. Sometimes, posts that have some off topic chat in it could just be edited out rather than have the whole post wiped out.

    I think the things is as well, if someone is new, or is a longer term member, regardless whether they have much knowledge or not, and they want to try describing what the models show, they deserve to be cut some slack. Even if their is some banter or off-topicness to their post. Otherwise new members, and long time lurkers who have never posted in the Model Output Discussion area before, could feel put off taking part in that thread.

    Posts like yours to me are appreciated (even if I might not always follow through on people’s complaints or suggestions in here) 🙂, as it makes me realise how things in this place could be improved and made fairer for all. I like to think we try our best and let things run smoothly, but I think there are things that could be better. That includes moderators, like myself, not having a preference towards certain members posts leaving any unsuitable content they do to be left untouched. Because again that does feel like we have agendas towards particular posters and that’s not fair for everyone else, really

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    FASCINATING metoffice update alert !!!!

    Let's see if the models start to get more interesting!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    FASCINATING metoffice update alert !!!!

    Let's see if the models start to get more interesting!!

    Yer I see that . We couldn’t could we ????? 😃😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    With charts like this, I wish I didn't bother getting into weather models. My life would be far simpler if I just looked out the window when I woke up each day. 

    image.thumb.png.9351a5f9c74c18d3c8b0c5787a3a39dd.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
    7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yer I see that . We couldn’t could we ????? 😃😃

    Hi - please could you tell me where this is? I cant seem to find it.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yer I see that . We couldn’t could we ????? 😃😃

    Update alert? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    FASCINATING metoffice update alert !!!!

    Let's see if the models start to get more interesting!!

    What....snow over mountains and milder towards NY? Have I read the wrong thing?

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

    What....snow over mountains and milder towards NY? Have I read the wrong thing?

    High pressure over the North unsettled South could be wintry??

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    FASCINATING metoffice update alert !!!!

    Let's see if the models start to get more interesting!!

    Would you mind pointing me towards whatever it is the MetO says?  I don't see anything on the MetO website.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Simon M said:

    Would you mind pointing me towards whatever it is the MetO says?  I don't see anything on the MetO website.

    Summer sun has posted it ...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    What....snow over mountains and milder towards NY? Have I read the wrong thing?

    Looks an upgrade to me and I was referencing the stuff prior to NY...

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looks an upgrade to me and I was referencing the stuff prior to NY...

    Hardly - mountain snow is not exactly unusual.....it could imply some cold zonality for the north but still cool and wet for 95% of us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
    2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    It just sounds like bog standard UK winter weather - it is always colder in the North. The only remotely interesting thing is the uncertainty, but at that timescale you could apply that to every forecast they make. 

    Great to see Atlantic amplification, but I am not expecting wintry nirvana just yet.... the Atlantic still looks mobile enough to throw in spoiler shortwaves.

    Incorrect, it’s not always colder in the North, there has been colder days and nights in the south this month.  Easterly winds often bring the lowest temperatures to the south of the UK.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    While watching yet another winter go down the toilet yesterday in the model output, I watched this:

    p08zhmbh.jpg
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Chris Packham takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963.

    It contains a 45 minute documentary from 1963 which I found fascinating, as it was 8 years before I was born.  Worth a look if you’ve got an hour to spare. 

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