Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Well mate I think you may need to reread it because if your interpretation is correct then the south would be included as much as the south.  What I believe they mean is that more rain is likely in the east and south with wintry showers being possible on high ground at to low levels more generally mate. No disrespect

The South is included yes. Snow down to low levels in the South and the East. If you read the rest of it they have a separate section for the North and the West 

 

"The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights"

 

So the South and the East rain with possibilty of snow down to low levels in the south and east of the country.

Its clear as mud 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

"Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times"

I think you need to look again mate. No disrespect.

This is textbook early wording for a possible cold spell. They use this terminology time and time again. Then nearer the time. They will change to wintry showers and very cold conditions in the East.

Yes I remember a couple of years ago when they spoke of significant cold and Eastlys and snow for the whole season, and we ended up with zilch...

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, MATT said:

Yes I remember a couple of years ago when they spoke of significant cold and Eastlys and snow for the whole season, and we ended up with zilch...

Yeah they could be wrong this time too. But the point that was made by the previous poster was no one in Exeter have mentioned a colder spell and I had to point out that point is wrong 

[BruenSryan]

Coldest day in Dublin since 2 March 2018 and easily coldest Dec day since 2010, didn't get above freezing with constant fog throughout. Lovely winter's day.

Quite unusual with no snow and no deep cold airmass but I guess that's what fog, a weak sun and a slack airflow can do at this time of year.

Edited December 6, 2020 by BruenSryan

[syed2878]

Guys these moddels a not done deal yet i know some of them are not showing what most of us want but lets not discount them. on the other hand this is the take from the met and sorry mods for putting this in here look at this before some of us start to throw our toys around.  

Friday 11 Dec - Sunday 20 Dec  

Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 6 Dec 2020

Sunday 20 Dec - Sunday 3 Jan  

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 6 Dec 2020.

[BarometerCat]

14 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

Guys these moddels a not done deal yet i know some of them are not showing what most of us want but lets not discount them. on the other hand this is the take from the met and sorry mods for putting this in here look at this before some of us start to throw our toys around.  

Friday 11 Dec - Sunday 20 Dec  

Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 6 Dec 2020

Sunday 20 Dec - Sunday 3 Jan  

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 6 Dec 2020.

To add its nothing like the last couple of years. I think giving the models a chance to resolve themselves is probably wisest and sanest move. It’s only just begun this year!

[andy989]

How depressing is this 

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, andy989 said:

How depressing is this 

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

 

Even Northern England doesn't get them now so what's gonna change?

[Severe Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, andy989 said:

How depressing is this 

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

 

Looks like this is already happening. No sub-zero days (maxima) since March 2018. 

No decent snow event since March 2018 and no decent snow event in winter since 2012/2013.
Far fewer thunderstorms each year - only managed 5 days this year and two of those were distant and the other three were weak.

Climate just seems to becoming more constant with little variety and almost complete lack of 'interesting' events while periods of Atlantic dross just seem to be getting longer and longer. 

Current cold spell is a joke. At Guildford there was no snow, as usual, and I have yet to record the first air-frost of the season. Tonight is another example of missing the frost by a small margin as temperature has dropped to a steady 1 deg.C. since 6 pm and will probably drop very little rest of night. 

[qwertyK]

22 minutes ago, Severe Blizzard said:

Looks like this is already happening. No sub-zero days (maxima) since March 2018. 

No decent snow event since March 2018 and no decent snow event in winter since 2012/2013.
Far fewer thunderstorms each year - only managed 5 days this year and two of those were distant and the other three were weak.

Climate just seems to becoming more constant with little variety and almost complete lack of 'interesting' events while periods of Atlantic dross just seem to be getting longer and longer. 

Current cold spell is a joke. At Guildford there was no snow, as usual, and I have yet to record the first air-frost of the season. Tonight is another example of missing the frost by a small margin as temperature has dropped to a steady 1 deg.C. since 6 pm and will probably drop very little rest of night. 

We've had plenty of frost,. ground and air here in essex, and snow in the north of the county. High of just 3C tommorow. We had no significant snowfall for about two years where I was. Honestly, the UK has never had truly "snowy" winters, I think we are allowing a few harsh winters in the 20th century to cloud our judgement. The UK has never had the cold winters of continental europe. This BBC article really isn't news. I'd still be much more concerned about a lack of snow in places where there should be lots, like greenland, the arctic etc. 

[Froze were the Days]

13 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

and no decent snow event in winter since 2012/2013.

Nothing from late February/early March 2018?...majority of central southern England had something from that.

[Freeze]

13 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

 

No decent snow event since March 2018 and no decent snow event in winter since 2012/2013.

I’m at sea level on the south coast and I had a decent snow event 1st feb 2019..

[Day_9]

I love the way people refer to the weather “as a joke”  in the same way they refer to a government or organisation

 

THIS WINTER IS AN ABSOLUTE JOKE 

 

Lolz all round.  This winter is this winter.  So far it’s been colder than we’ve had in a long time and today is bloody freezing 

[V for Very Cold]

I forget each year what a struggle it is to get my brain into gear to try and understand the model thread. There's such a plethora of terms ,  nuances and details (and in my case basic knowledge) that takes 3 months to remember - by the time I can understand 10% of the model thread, it's spring and I hibernate again 

I really should start thinking about re learning the science in the height of summer lol

[V for Very Cold]

Am I the only one this year who doesn't want a White Christmas this year (shocking I know lol) - just want people to be able to visit their loved ones if they can/want to

V x

[DanDorsetUK]

Must admit the weather model forum does make me laugh with the amount of comedy posts! A daily read now n then is quite entertaining. Amazing how many get so excited over fantasy charts. Admittedly were in a good position this year but some of the knee jerk reactions does make me smile from one run to another Same every year!

[frosty ground]

12 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Must admit the weather model forum does make me laugh with the amount of comedy posts! A daily read now n then is quite entertaining. Amazing how many get so excited over fantasy charts. Admittedly were in a good position this year but some of the knee jerk reactions does make me smile from one run to another Same every year!

It gets old very very quickly thou

[DanDorsetUK]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It gets old very very quickly thou

Very true! Just a matter of filtering the posts from the not so knowledgable ones. Clearly quite a mixed bunch of ages and experience all part of the learning curve I guess!

[qwertyK]

freezing today. High of just 3/4C and so foggy ! It’s got even foggier. Coldest day of 2020 believe it or not 

[sparky1972]

i have to say that this winter has been our best for a few years already, heavy snow last friday which is still giving a very icy covering, freezing cold and foggy since then, possibly a few more chilly foggy days to come before things turn less cold/mild. les hope we can muster a cpl more colder spells before we start looking forward to spring.

[Bradley in Kent]

Must say the bar for winter is as low as it will go meaning even a dusting that lasts for 4 hours is an improvement. 

That Met Office article is quite depressing but we knew that anyway. A winter like last year will be the norm, but at least the other 3 seasons will get more interesting! 

QUICK EDIT: The fact our winters are already mild means any last cold percentile will quickly go. Northwestern Europe has already lost the most 'snow days' compared to other places because those snow days were already marginal 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Bradley in Kent
More text

[throwoff]

What shocks me is that there are still people who don't know exactly how the next 3 weeks will play out. 

23rd December the snow begins. It does not stop till 27th. At which point the '5 day Christmas window' to see family and mix is firmly closed. 

Nobody gets off their drive over the Christmas period, some people have 6ft drifts stopping them opening the door even.

 

If you think the end of 2020 won't play out EXACTLY like this I wonder where you have been all year..

[qwertyK]

Coldest day for me since February 2019. 

[Snow lover 2020]

54 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Must say the bar for winter is as low as it will go meaning even a dusting that lasts for 4 hours is an improvement. 

That Met Office article is quite depressing but we knew that anyway. A winter like last year will be the norm, but at least the other 3 seasons will get more interesting! 

QUICK EDIT: The fact our winters are already mild means any last cold percentile will quickly go. Northwestern Europe has already lost the most 'snow days' compared to other places because those snow days were already marginal 

 

What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say  it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be?  It’s called WEATHER 

[Paul]

14 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say  it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be?  It’s called WEATHER 

You're kind of missing the point there I'm afraid. Snow in a place, or a cold spell doesn't mean that the climate isn't changing or warming. There's a difference between climate and weather - climate being long term trends as opposed to singular, localised weather events. 

You can find more information, and discuss the science around this further in the climate area

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/105-climate-change-the-science/