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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Do you have access to the AAM/GWO charts? Seems like you know what you're talking about! Seeing them would be a huge help

Yes and so do you MET4cast as ive seen you post them. Im not here to have my views picked apart. I don't post often as I work researching future meteorology. Comments like that patronizing are what put me off commentating in the first place. Get a grip and some respect 

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Maybe it’s because those images are from the end of April ?? 😂

Why is it one or two on here, as soon as they have nailed their proverbial colours to their masts, they will not let it go? They can’t be seen to be wrong, God forbid. Watering it down as the charts t

Can we get away from this cold air myth. We have the ECM showing a possible snow event this Friday. We do not need -10c 850s for snow. Yes, it is great when they come along but you can get snow f

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is why I love continental flows - a rarity in the Uk a developing upper air cold pool situ with uppers going from +2 to -6 & showers turning to snow

5AF57E84-7037-443C-A097-F7AA68EEA592.thumb.png.4006c342ed1ef1cd527262f699d13baf.png8BFE6086-1D36-43BA-9838-82F6879CCAAC.thumb.png.56090d9be7484150e2ad6076c2b165cf.pngD3AC043E-2EEE-4C47-9B7C-8366C7C359C4.thumb.png.5b4f9b7e555a35436a433930f5ed6375.pngEE660F7D-8361-4242-AD6B-0DE5C2473F11.thumb.png.f060bea917d66d3d039d4f44d800dabc.pngE309965F-BCDD-4956-83C3-33E13E98648C.thumb.png.6e4a0c654dcf9658773dfc24c411cef0.png

It is something I’ve observed frequently over years the uppers trend colder closer to time. All you need is lower pressure, lighter winds and it will just get increasingly colder not just surface, this time of year it’s best for it... nights are long! There does look to be some potential around 5th for some wintriness, hills only at this stage. Hopefully we can squeeze out more.

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Decently cold at the surface towards the end of this week, probably getting maxes around 3-5c, so pretty cold for the time of year.

With that being said, I still think anything more than a few flakes in the air mixed in with rain is optimistic based on what I can see with regards to this flow, unless of course we see something of an upgrade (very possible). 

My main attention is still further out beyond day 10 when we can hopefully finally get some upper cold loaded around any upper high that develops to our north, IF it develops of course!

 

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3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes and so do you MET4cast as ive seen you post them. Im not here to have my views picked apart. I don't post often as I work researching future meteorology. Comments like that patronizing are what put me off commentating in the first place. Get a grip and some respect 

Um. What? 😂 I was being genuine. 

I don't have access unfortunately, the ones I've posted were taken from others who had posted them on Twitter. I take back what I said previously though, you're clearly just here to do some trolling. Bizarre response there.

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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Um. What? 😂 I was being genuine. 

I don't have access unfortunately, the ones I've posted were taken from others who had posted them on Twitter. I take back what I said previously though, you're clearly just here to do some trolling. Bizarre response there.

Clever response. I'll continue to keep my knowledge and work i do to myself. Just keep an eye out for some papers on the subject on the 17th of December 

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4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs pub run just reinforces my own personal opinion,Russian high in total charge,and edging 

west words to Scandinavia.Cold continental easterly flow to win over Atlantic.

 

This is a good thing. We want this close as we want the western European trough to drive against this and push some heat up into the strat 

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1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thank you 

Is there a discussion for technical opinions where you don't get patronized and picked apart by people that don't understand the science. I know Tamara has also been put off at times 100% due to the nature of the new science involved.

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1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Your last couple of responses were crazy touchy. I was reading your posts with interest, well on your side following Daniel's slightly dismissive post, and wanted to know more, but am now perturbed and perplexed...

Saw nothing patronising or remotely disingenuous or sarcastic from @Met4Cast or anyone.

So just for the record, this is a good way to turn people off and kill trust.

Indeed, I was genuinely hoping to get access to the charts in some way, or at least have them posted so that I could see what the latest offering was regarding the AAM/GWO, it's quite an important signal to be aware of as we go into the winter period, particularly at the moment given the huge amounts of uncertainty. Really not sure why he responded in that way, but nevermind!

The 18z starts off well but seems to default to a typical GFS flat pattern further into the extended range. Though perhaps signs of a reload coming!

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.88c970ffc84d6cfe0ab10cc93bd73e96.png

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7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is a good thing. We want this close as we want the western European trough to drive against this and push some heat up into the strat 

Yeah there has been some discussion from a few on here today earlier that if you can get a strong enough upper high developing it will help to disrupt any developing PV. Anything that can keep the PV from coupling up through the atmosphere is a good thing obviously.

The 18z looks a little flat for my liking though, and its rather different quite a few of the ensembles from both the EC and GFS that are trying to keep it at least somewhat amplified, even if it isn't necessarily to our benefit always.

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Cpc 8/14 finally catching up with the expected scenario and painting a sig w european upper trough ( marked 1). For those who were asking the other day, this feature tallys with a low anomoly so expect to see an area of low pressure over France during the period (won’t be the whole 7 days)

the area marked 2 shows a high onomoly mid Atlantic but there is no corresponding upper ridge - hence we won’t necessarily see particularly cold uppers being fed into the W euro trough from any systems traversing the Atlantic high. However, I suspect that the flat nature of the upper flow is as much to do with the ens not being in strong agreement as anything else. by the time this period is within the 6/10 day output, I would think you will see an upper ridge shown although not necessarily very sharp ...

5C72509B-6ADC-4A92-9D32-E9002DFF4B66.thumb.jpeg.128c3889d7cb89d160a8feda24b810db.jpeg

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Looks likes this winter, might bring me back!

Some more exciting prospects to see this winter. Potential SSW mid December?

Could get a nice taste of early winter in December! Frost and cold/cool (for some!) and maybe some flurries about (Mainly on high ground) 

Do people think this GFS upgrade which happened last year I think? Has fixed some of the issues it had? Generally wondering.

 

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17 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

B9C15224-1991-49B5-A0F6-B4276D7A1DB0.thumb.jpeg.85587e08d7e21468bd4c04ee449cdaec.jpeg:santa-emoji:Oh my..I’m liking the cfs longer term...😜 🥶 ❄️ ️ 

10BE2200-7117-4227-A2B2-F1BD12BD63B9.thumb.png.1eb78837e100eace185d7fbb042d5dbe.png532CC1EF-A520-44A9-B38B-1875EBC6CC67.thumb.png.a9f562281858127699a75dcf2979ca85.png3DB49E85-C7D5-41AD-8575-7D4DAED2F867.thumb.png.fbc14fd4b25a384ee775ed340c20ca5e.png31A720DD-CE39-443E-8C87-1B0CF4F735C7.thumb.png.f10d02712bfde8ef0abb938f28a701bb.png0B4B8E26-97BF-49B8-B3EB-E60638BC7DC3.thumb.png.3b4d903e2399f08610232a85a8ba2b4c.png90EAC095-A51A-4346-AB63-A2D24E6F54E9.thumb.png.b130f8ee11c4ca0c432c66f91c1dce9b.pngE560C12E-C006-4290-959F-905E4B6F9312.thumb.png.179fdd45ebb158b5e5949c06efe24764.png869D82FA-5C44-452B-96F1-FE47A021902E.thumb.png.03cfeafee01d62bbc1f1c6c70440b4fc.pngE6FEC8F5-02C3-4B07-B28D-84B2FE0421C1.thumb.png.e22719e98ad40d9ff2506b92b108426f.png

The CFS has been churning out charts similar to these for the last few months in the very long range..BUT now it isn’t such long range is it!?...I can’t think of a better prezzie from Santa this year! 🎅 :reindeer-emoji:😜🧐 🥶 

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A whole bunch of posts that didn't conform to the topic of the thread have been pushed to the recycle bin!

Move on and get back to ushering in an Easterly please.

🙂

 

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26 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

B9C15224-1991-49B5-A0F6-B4276D7A1DB0.thumb.jpeg.85587e08d7e21468bd4c04ee449cdaec.jpeg:santa-emoji:Oh my..I’m liking the cfs longer term...😜 🥶 ❄️ ️ 

10BE2200-7117-4227-A2B2-F1BD12BD63B9.thumb.png.1eb78837e100eace185d7fbb042d5dbe.png532CC1EF-A520-44A9-B38B-1875EBC6CC67.thumb.png.a9f562281858127699a75dcf2979ca85.png3DB49E85-C7D5-41AD-8575-7D4DAED2F867.thumb.png.fbc14fd4b25a384ee775ed340c20ca5e.png31A720DD-CE39-443E-8C87-1B0CF4F735C7.thumb.png.f10d02712bfde8ef0abb938f28a701bb.png0B4B8E26-97BF-49B8-B3EB-E60638BC7DC3.thumb.png.3b4d903e2399f08610232a85a8ba2b4c.png90EAC095-A51A-4346-AB63-A2D24E6F54E9.thumb.png.b130f8ee11c4ca0c432c66f91c1dce9b.pngE560C12E-C006-4290-959F-905E4B6F9312.thumb.png.179fdd45ebb158b5e5949c06efe24764.png869D82FA-5C44-452B-96F1-FE47A021902E.thumb.png.03cfeafee01d62bbc1f1c6c70440b4fc.pngE6FEC8F5-02C3-4B07-B28D-84B2FE0421C1.thumb.png.e22719e98ad40d9ff2506b92b108426f.png

We all know the views on the CFS but it has been strangely consistent for a number of weeks now in churning out these cold synoptic. Maybe it's onto something, especially given the set up we have going into December...

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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s always ironic that things hot up in here when the weather cools down.

SSS Sensitive Sally Syndrome. 

Latest GFS a backtrack on next weeks snow chances for the NW compared to earlier run. Hopefully better over night runs.

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13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes most of the time a rampant PV is almost a death knell to winters prospects but there is a reason why not every winter reads a script. The atmosphere isn't behaving in a nina state just yet. Im simple terms. If we were in a nina state the tropical convection wouldn't get much past the Indian Ocean as the easterly winds would scrub out the westerly winds. As it is the base state is allowing the tropical convection further west. If you add the huge eamt event recently all the talk of winter over after mid January I believe is very premature. Now what we basically have is almost a neutral base state with low solar and low sea ice. This is the perfect combination for a ssw. To go with this you still need the mid lat highs in early winter set up in the right place. We do have this. The russianscandi block and upcoming western European trough in my opinion is going to create a very rare chance of am early end of December winter warming. What im saying is we have a watered down nina set up with soon to be Greenland pressure rise (tho not sustainable) bringing a cold snap but its the perfect blend. This Greenland pressure rise creates a trough in Western Europe against and unusually strong scandi block in a nina year. In a nina year this is where youd expect the trough to be. Its not its further west due to tropical convection and low sea ice in the kara and it means to me actually due to a ssw tje coldest period will have end of January and most of Feb. Im researching tje perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year. The last time was 47 this scenario played out 

So am I correct in saying the expectation is for a 'mainly' cold December, followed by a relaxation of the cold towards the end of December into the new year. Then the main course from mid Jan? 

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