Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[nick sussex]

The UKMO starts off less progressive with the low to the west then implodes and manages to shunt that further east than the GFS .

This is due to what it does off the eastern USA , if flattens out the high .

The models seem to be making a real drama over this , what’s new ! 

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

They tend to be cannon fodder in isolation, however the ECM has been trending that way too for a few runs now, coupled with the persistent Ural High/Aleutian low signal from the models, it's been almost expected that we'd begin to see the GFS picking up on some strat warming. We've also got a strong +EAMT event being modelled which can often produce patterns favourable for a trop-led attack on the SPV.

So while the GFS extended Strat charts in isolation can't be trusted, there is reason to believe they might be onto something at the moment. 

+ I believe the GFS was upgraded during the year and so far, it seems the huge bias it had last winter has been resolved.

If i recall correctly in December last year the GEFS seemed to favour a strat worming but the GFS didn’t. The op was right.   But the GFS was the new FV3 and the GEFS were the old model.  As i understand it the GEFS have been upgraded and are now based on the FV3 model, with 30 members instead of 20, so I will be looking to see if guidance on the strat is consistent between the op and the ensembles.

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 12z from 168 hrs let the battle begin,to me if charts correct the key to staying with 

continental air being high pressure over western Russia starting to push towards our

winter friend Scandinavian high.

 

[seabreeze86]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone seen the evolution of latest gfsp run ???

 

 

Yes personally I think it’s got it nailed

 

[Duane S.]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone seen the evolution of latest gfsp run ???

 

 

Yes and it isn't half bad is it!

[kold weather]

12z GFS is more Atlantic based as Steve said earlier on, probably less cold at the surface but colder aloft, probably a higher chance of there being snow around but most of it confined to higher ground. 

Still a fairly cold run overall, though perhaps a little less so than the 06z due to the Atlantic influence upto day 10.

Precious little deep cold throughout Europe, though the synoptics don't look too bad on this run. We'll probably drag in a fairly anemic easterly flow beyond day 10. Could evolve into something more tasty day 15+.

Edited November 26, 2020 by kold weather

[swfc]

11 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

 

A definite trend to enhance both cold pools overnight which is never a bad thing, some bring the upper cold right into the UK from the continent so some push the polar air SE, ( the continent is just tipping it ATM ) but all roads lead to rome hopefully as the secondary trend overnight is to amplify the PNA more & more which is supporting the atlantic ridge to a higher amplitude as well... 

wait for it... Someone break out the nina footprint....

PTB 11 for me

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Have to say barring things cooling down I can't understand anyone getting excited over the current output. Granted its seasonal but nothing in the reliable time frames to suggest anything that Warrents anything exciting. 

[Met4Cast]

The lack of cold across Europe could become an issue if this pattern does eventually transpire.

The huge Russian high prevents any cold air undercutting & advecting westwards towards the UK, instead we end up rather cold at the surface but nothing becoming deeply established. 

Some positives though is the continued trend towards low heights across S Europe. Good run for coldies overall, always nice to see that trough disruption.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The lack of cold across Europe could become an issue if this pattern does eventually transpire.

The huge Russian high prevents any cold air undercutting & advecting westwards towards the UK, instead we end up rather cold at the surface but nothing becoming deeply established. 

Some positives though is the continued trend towards low heights across S Europe. Good run for coldies overall, always nice to see that trough disruption.

Very balanced post. Thanks bit of sense. Been in worse places going into winter but a bit of realism never hurt

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z at T168, T192, looks like it isn’t quite going to fully make it, but a decent attempt at heights into Greenland on this run, and that far out, time for adjustments that may improve:

[Geordiesnow]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

Have to say barring things cooling down I can't understand anyone getting excited over the current output. Granted its seasonal but nothing in the reliable time frames to suggest anything that Warrents anything exciting. 

I have to agree on the face of it, the model outlook is hardly a cold one and there is nothing wintry on the horizon but if we do avoid a west based NAO then with the amplified jet over the states, we may eventually get a colder shot from the north. 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z at T168, T192, looks like it isn’t quite going to fully make it, but a decent attempt at heights into Greenland on this run, and that far out, time for adjustments that may improve:

Aye, little bit too much energy coming eastwards out of Canada for the high to gain enough amplification. Good to see the trend for low heights into Europe is still evident though.

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, swfc said:

Have to say barring things cooling down I can't understand anyone getting excited over the current output. Granted its seasonal but nothing in the reliable time frames to suggest anything that Warrents anything exciting. 

I disagree - Its like a 3 hour lord of the rings saga ATM but 

* No zonal charts showing

* A developing slider at 144-168 & then further out excitement Id say thats pretty good for the opening to Winter

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, swfc said:

Very balanced post. Thanks bit of sense. Been in worse places going into winter but a bit of realism never hurt

It is still very early, so entrenched cold in Europe isn’t imo an issue.....and it is 3000 mile SW’lies so the continent will keep chilling.

 

Steve Murr....agree 100%....it’s 25th Nov....looks good

 BFTP

Edited November 26, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

GEM looks lovely to me, am I missing something?

[Kentspur]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Aye, little bit too much energy coming eastwards out of Canada for the high to gain enough amplification. Good to see the trend for low heights into Europe is still evident though.

If that low to the south was a couple hundred miles further SE it would be pretty decent- latest GEM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks lovely to me, am I missing something?

GFS route just touch earlier.  This is very interesting indeed.  Note I haven’t mentioned my  ‘death knell’ early thoughts

 

BFTP

[TSNWK]

33 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The lack of cold across Europe could become an issue if this pattern does eventually transpire.

The huge Russian high prevents any cold air undercutting & advecting westwards towards the UK, instead we end up rather cold at the surface but nothing becoming deeply established. 

Some positives though is the continued trend towards low heights across S Europe. Good run for coldies overall, always nice to see that trough disruption.

Nice post. Thank you.. just putting this out there! We have huge land mass at a relAtivley northern latitude and low solar input forecasted to be without its warm air supply for a long duration... I’m saying that if anything like these charts verify it will be colder than suggested both at depth and surface as a cold pool in situ is generated? Any Thoughts gang? or maybe I’m talking tosh...

Edited November 26, 2020 by TSNWK

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone seen the evolution of latest gfsp run ???

 

 

Oh yes, not sure if I believe it but will take it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS gone barmy on this one

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks lovely to me, am I missing something?

Beautiful Synoptic but lacking cold air unfortunately. As others have said it’s not to be sniffed at for first few days of winter though and the continent will cool with time 

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I disagree - Its like a 3 hour lord of the rings saga ATM but 

* No zonal charts showing

* A developing slider at 144-168 & then further out excitement Id say thats pretty good for the opening to Winter

Well that's your parogative to disagree and I respect that. Let's see what the weekend brings and see how things land. I've no crystal ball so il just go on what I see 

[MP-R]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I disagree - Its like a 3 hour lord of the rings saga ATM but 

* No zonal charts showing

* A developing slider at 144-168 & then further out excitement Id say thats pretty good for the opening to Winter

Exactly. Let's not forget we're at the time of the year where we're more likely to see a raging Atlantic than any other, so I'm personally welcoming anything that does not show that. Even average temperatures would feel chilly compared most of November thus far, so even moderately cold synoptics will deliver cold-feeling conditions. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the current model watching is the consistently unusual movement of low pressure areas - never quite the same from run to run but undoubtedly in odd places for the time of year. As long as we keep seeing this playing out in future model runs, I'm interested!

[swfc]

Just now, MP-R said:

Exactly. Let's not forget we're at the time of the year where we're more likely to see a raging Atlantic than any other, so I'm personally welcoming anything that does not show that. Even average temperatures would feel chilly compared most of November thus far, so even moderately cold synoptics will deliver cold-feeling conditions. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the current model watching is the consistently unusual movement of low pressure areas - never quite the same from run to run but undoubtedly in odd places for the time of year. As long as we keep seeing this playing out in future model runs, I'm interested!

I agree with you but the fluidity in the models means nothing is cast in stone. There is know active mobile look about things ie"west to east mobility"but things can change, its weather after all and the models are showing things what haven't happened yet. Still it is looking better than it could, in theory

[northwestsnow]

Hoping E C brings something nicer than the hideous 00z det ....