Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[feb1991blizzard]

Just a shame we are not further into winter and that trough isn't injected with 510 thicknesses.

[Griff]

Just now, Eskimo said:

This is what I like to call Boreas's Nose. It's basically the Scandinavian high saying "nope not today Zeus"

Genuine question is this an Easterly with Atlantic going via Iceland? Cold? 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Genuine question is this an Easterly with Atlantic going via Iceland? Cold? 

On this run, yes. Ideally we'd want to see energy going under the block though. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Deep into FI now over a cold 18z. 

 

But the Atlantic ridge is going north again. 

With that huge scandi high in place can we see a Greenland high just before the end? 

[sheikhy]

Just a quick one could someone post the gfs 18z ensembles for leicester later on please!!im going bed think ive seen enough eastwards shifts for the day!!

[northwestsnow]

Atlantic can't get in on GFS18Z...

Let's hope its right because the run is classic old school December with frosts in double figures..

Hilly areas getting snow later this week could hang onto it for quite a while !!on this op run..

[Crackerjack]

Please remember everybody DO NOT mention any of this to your nearest or dearest or it won’t happen. Already told my family looking mild for the foreseeable  

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z keeps -4 uppers right through fl into the uk,these would come down further i would of thought nearer the time

great 18z,lets see if this momentum continues in the morning

night guys

and don't have nightmares

[Tim Bland]

[andy989]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Probably doesn't help you being quite so close to the coast. Will always be affected by higher dew points as a result, despite your height asl.  

True, I might get lucky as I'm right in the mountains, can walk up Snowdon from the house so we are affected by the mountainous micro climate. Time will tell. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by andy989

[moorlander]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic can't get in on GFS18Z...

Let's hope its right because the run is classic old school December with frosts in double figures..

Hilly areas getting snow later this week could hang onto it for quite a while !!on this op run..

Oh i do hope so i may even put the decs up

[ALL ABOARD]

13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Deep into FI now over a cold 18z. 

 

But the Atlantic ridge is going north again. 

With that huge scandi high in place can we see a Greenland high just before the end? 

Here she comes?? 

[karlos1983]

I think the gfs has broken all lockdown laws, broken into the pub and been on a proper sesh!! 

[ALL ABOARD]

Dayummmm few days short. 

 

What a spectacular run though. 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I think the gfs has broken all lockdown laws, broken into the pub and been on a proper sesh!! 

Wow oh wow....

That is very similar to Steve's choice of best run of the perturbs!

Look at the cold massing round the backdoor.

MIA

 

[weirpig]

Short ensembles  for midlands   show  with outliers removed  Mean around -5  throughout.    

[Matt H]

Gonna frame this in the house somewhere

[ICE COLD]

Allll I do love a beautiful ending . That is a stonker . 

[Zak M]

Wow, it's absolutely buzzing here tonight!!! Must be a sign of things to come, surely?

Nice to see that EC46 chart going for a blocked December! The 18z GFS kind of shows the pattern that the EC46 is showing out in FI!

17 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Please remember everybody DO NOT mention any of this to your nearest or dearest or it won’t happen. Already told my family looking mild for the foreseeable  

I decided to go a step further and tell them that multiple days of December will exceed 25c - the funniest part was that they believed me

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Allll I do love a beautiful ending . That is a stonker . 

been a long time since we had the pleasure of such a good looking chart

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Gonna frame this in the house somewhere

That is a Murr sausage I believe, not seen for a few years and on the viagra by the look of it.

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 minutes ago, BARRY said:

been a long time since we had the pleasure of such a good looking chart

One of the best I have seen in my 70 years of weather watching.

IF.....  it comes off it would prelude the coldest Xmas ever!!

Definitely a chart worth keeping. 

I remember the charts for 47, 56 and 62 and 2010. This would not exclude a similar winter. 

Ramp over!!

MIA

Edited November 30, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic can't get in on GFS18Z...

Let's hope its right because the run is classic old school December with frosts in double figures..

Hilly areas getting snow later this week could hang onto it for quite a while !!on this op run..

Hopefully not old school as in 80s Decembers...7 out of 10 were mild and only one cold one!!

18z is just stunning, this is the one we want

My Front loaded winter incoming at this rate....and I’ve been looking at BFTE for Xmas....now it’ll turn mild

 

 BFTP

Edited November 30, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Duane S.]

The 18z is simply stunning and a fitting end to a day which has produced a lot of eye candy, and for a change not all at the usual D10+ timescales (although there is plenty of eye candy then as well!)

This does smack of further shifts southwards as the week progresses. It’s of course a total waste of time trying to estimate PPN type, totals and locations until inside 24 hours, probably much less. I’m not getting over excited for any snow imby, well not quite yet anyway

With the current hemispheric set up and the latest U wind forecasts, I think we are entering December (and going into January) with as much potential as we’ve had in a good few years. 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by s4lancia

[Nick F]

Cold 12z EC T2m average for London between the 4 - 9 Dec, 12z GFS (NCEP) op running as on the mild side of the EC ens spread between the 5 - 8 Dec too.

Can't complain too much about the EC weeklies tonight either, week 2/3/4 below