Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Sums up how strange the evolving pattern is.. we are looking for eastward corrections! With this a week away a 100 miles to east is nothing.. we could be spending this week slidergating.. last one I recall was pretty much the same time 3 years ago...

Yes I was responsible for that frase, I take zero comfort from it

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8... are we seeing wedges appearing ?

Yes,looks like another trough disruption at day nine,rinse and repeat...

 

[booferking]

The eastward movement is clear to see keep it up EC & we tap into the colder 850s.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by booferking

[JBMWeatherForever]

Models continually showing interesting potential for cold during early December either from the north or the east.  And even if we don't get a direct hit from the north,  with the jet heading well south an increasing likelyhood of  gradually developing our own cold pool with time.   

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8... are we seeing wedges appearing ?

There no decent 850s pal, the wedges would be making wellies

[Tim Bland]

-5c air tucking in behind the low could mean rain - sleet - snow for the south as it clears sat-sun 

[feb1991blizzard]

40 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just hope this doesn't get corrupted!

 

Installation already failed for whole winter - location server error - bad location - UK not recognised.

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thicknesses low, -3 uppers light winds in low centre...marginal but could give some places a burying. Potential is there. Even more so if the trough drops another 100 miles E.

Yes it looks some high ground is going to get buried. ECM too extreme on coverage, Snowdon good bet? 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

There no decent 850s pal, the wedges would be making wellies

Its not all about 850 s though....

Altitude will be required though ...

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Yes it looks some high ground is going to get buried. ECM too extreme on coverage, Snowdon good bet? 

Dam this Covid ...it’s gone too far now! Peak District and Snowdon both on lockdown !

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

4 runs of the GFS with no atlantic in FI - indeed what a signal-

Also the mean beginning to follow suit!

I know you’ve hidden your battery percentage Steve but you can’t fool us - keep your eye on it!

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not all about 850 s though....

Altitude will be required though ...

Yes it will plus good dew points, heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling. Big ask in the 850s but its not a bad place to be

[Tim Bland]

Nice to see the ensembles falling away and the op almost an outlier at the top of the pack mid term ...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Yeah.. some notable belly dropping latte on with mean-pulling the members down hard... needs watching!!!!

Why are you linking a Sep ensemble chart?

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Yeah.. some notable belly dropping latter in with mean-pulling the members down hard... needs watching!!!!

Think we’ve already watched it. That’s a month ago.

[daz_4]

Disgusting run from ECM. Couldn't have been more horrible if it tried.

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Think we’ve already watched it. That’s a month ago.

It's the strong latteetight isobar is a Cool guy

Edited November 28, 2020 by swfc

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Disgusting run from ECM. Couldn't have been more horrible if it tried.

You may well have to go through a warm flow before the trough digs again further east as week two progresses daz ....

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Think we’ve already watched it. That’s a month ago.

The #### I get them from???

Edited November 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

Not as reflective as my initial stale =mouldy data . But here they are .    Ooz /12z to boot

Edited November 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

Taking pert 28 in isolation and i have come to a conclusion,we need this trough deeper to penetrate both blocks to the west and east,this in term will send energy further SE into Europe and prop the heights building north of it

pressure ens and chart at 144 hrs

animation from 192>

the more we send energy S/SE the better

gefs ens 850's,that mean is coming down now close to -5 and is extending the cool spell,can we actually get a cold spell out of this?,it is possible.

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Allseasons-Si]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Installation already failed for whole winter - location server error - bad location - UK not recognised.

Yep

 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Taking pert 28 in isolation and i have come to a conclusion,we need this trough deeper to penetrate both blocks to the west and east,this in term will send energy further SE into Europe and prop the heights building north of it

pressure ens and chart at 144 hrs

animation from 192>

the more we send energy S/SE the better

gefs ens 850's,that mean is coming down now close to -5 and is extending the cool spell,can we actually get a cold spell out of this?,it is possible.

 

Yep.. certainly possible on those scale points... but can we swap em for the September values

[Anthony Burden]

Would be very unlucky not to see some white stuff over a good part of U.K. with 

these low pressure systems being forced south southeast due to Russian high.

Got to be the best start to winter for a very long time,long may it last.

[Mike Poole]

Now that we’re close to December, maybe a good time to show the last 8 CFS z500 anomaly charts averaged over December:

Points of note I think are the general -AO nature of all the plots, the continuing Aleutian low, Russian high theme on some of them, but most of all, the increasing anomaly related to the Russian/scandi high, it just gets stronger and stronger - is it going to get close enough to influence the UK?  And is it competing with HL blocking to our NW?  Which will win out?  I think the scandi block may well win this one...we will see...