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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

    Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

     

    814day.03 d.gif

    It might not be, but hemispherically you can see pressure repeatedly being placed on the zonal hemispheric flow by that Russian HP. 

    Personally I would not discount a SSW mid winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    As this tweet and others have said - MJO activity is now subsiding, and we should head back towards a more typical Nina pattern in the next 2-3 weeks. Some excitement at last!

    Backs up my comments this morning, less interference from tropical activity allowing a more typical La Nina pattern to emerge as being indicated by current modelling, a possible chilly end to November, note word 'chilly' and not very cold, but chilly enough to feel cold with every chance of some early wintriness more so in the north. Secondary low and slider territory into relatively cold air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    UKMO further east than GFS...

    Not to say either model is correct of course !

    EC will be interesting...

    Was gona say in terms of heights its better across greenland but becuase the pattern is slightly further east it dont look as good!!had it been even slightly further west i reckon it would have been really good viewing!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    We should all thank Paul for starting a new thread (winter approaches) certainly looking that way 🥶🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Just an observation but the latter part of November since 2015 has tended to deliver an early taste of winter it seems. Sometimes cold and frosty, and some early snow, well here at least. Only year not so sure delivered was 2018. But 2015, 2016, 2017 and last year certainly did.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Just an observation but the latter part of November since 2015 has tended to deliver an early taste of winter it seems. Sometimes cold and frosty, and some early snow, well here at least. Only year not so sure delivered was 2018. But 2015, 2016, 2017 and last year certainly did.

    not here, only 2010 in recent years

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    If the Models are right, temps taking a marked dip by next weekend....Lovely 🤗

    image.thumb.gif.8ba7f666c57486d7eeb4e9108f706f6b.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Nice eye candy but too far away to get excited about and UKMO kicks it mostly of the pitch anyway. However it shows that it may not be an exceptional mild November as some were thinking in the CET thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    UKMO 144 is a bit meh tonight:

    4A7BF385-0483-46EC-9D5F-922E04B761BE.thumb.jpeg.3dfe688cb590362431b1e529b247a232.jpeg0897EA44-0ED8-4BC8-B245-D2539B2BFF09.thumb.jpeg.21088eb6c6e5b94067ec175f9af952c7.jpeg
     

    That is basically a high of 10/11C for London, Manchester 8/9C and Aberdeen 7/8C with any snowfall reserved for the mountain hares above 600/700 meters. :snowman-emoji:
     

    I’m not sure I totally follow you, it does look pretty slider like to me, and it’s pretty cold in Scotland actually on the UKMO the interior not much above freezing. Cold enough for snow to fall much lower than that.

    DEEEB6B1-B3F6-48DD-824A-309676AA00BF.thumb.png.2d7d442037e29cd881602fcd41af2ad0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members .

    It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older you get the quicker the years seem to flash by!

    Anyway in terms of the latest models. Certainly some interest has developed over the last few days in terms of some colder weather , snow wise not the depth of cold at this stage unless you’re higher up .

    The GFS does have a shortwave feature running east/se with some colder air tucking south .

    In mid winter this would be leading to pandemonium in here but currently not quite cold enough for more widespread interest.

    I think the thing to keep an eye on is how the models deal with pressure rising to the nw and also what happens to the PV . If you don’t get a chunk splitting off and taking up shop over sw Greenland then the energy supply for low pressure moving east is going to be reduced so more shallower features could disrupt se under any high pressure .

    Day 6 into 7 looks key where you need sufficient upstream trough disruption to support that lobe of high pressure to the nw .

    Great to have you back on the forum-love your take on things which gives us great entertainment and humour(as well as knowledge)👍Look forward to a nice ‘Genoa Low’ and not too many short waves that could scupper the UK COLD😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    42 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Indeed - classic seasonal November months - especially up here. 

    2016:

    D38E7F82-AD85-4098-8A44-3DAFD7B50DCA.thumb.jpeg.d187220b20b6d85cb3f8f9ef18ae740a.jpeg
     

    2017:

    FC4A6C78-8458-45F4-9FEA-1B2CF13E62C9.thumb.jpeg.45207aa42de819e57ed2d75929c24a70.jpeg
     

    2019:

    AEDDEFDD-E00D-4231-93EA-15CCA9DA27EB.thumb.jpeg.b5b3ef611db3c014d93a44d3b6a18081.jpeg
     

    This month so far can get in the bin! 😄

    UKMO 144 is a bit meh tonight:

    4A7BF385-0483-46EC-9D5F-922E04B761BE.thumb.jpeg.3dfe688cb590362431b1e529b247a232.jpeg0897EA44-0ED8-4BC8-B245-D2539B2BFF09.thumb.jpeg.21088eb6c6e5b94067ec175f9af952c7.jpeg
     

    That is basically a high of 10/11C for London, Manchester 8/9C and Aberdeen 7/8C with any snowfall reserved for the mountain hares above 600/700 meters. :snowman-emoji:

    More to the point I am still waiting on @mb018538 rapid slide into unsettled weather next week with the Atlantic gearing up...😃😉 (Still looking dry/calm for Southern England next week mate)

    Edit: @ Daniel post below I’ll stick with the Met Office automated/UKV for the 19th. 
    We shall see who is nearer the mark. 😉

    UKMO chart if went further on would probably show low heights squeezed through UK thanks to the wedge of heights to the NW, azores high retracted back west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    54 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Nice eye candy but too far away to get excited about and UKMO kicks it mostly of the pitch anyway. However it shows that it may not be an exceptional mild November as some were thinking in the CET thread.

    4A7BF385-0483-46EC-9D5F-922E04B761BE.jpe

    Hardly in to touch is it? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Choppy undercutter slider into -6> -8 air

    C29B7695-F357-453E-88BC-2C4530CA0995.thumb.png.58e7950246d810683c835511ce0b63b3.png

    😁

    Battery alert Steve.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    ECM 192:

    North:

    992A65F4-0665-4EC2-AF72-A2DCAE20532F.thumb.jpeg.730f0c06140b01ccf612ba2639657c44.jpeg
     

    D942C712-1602-43F4-944D-3897FE16C1B7.thumb.jpeg.177ae0f561c97b7022a5c3929bf75206.jpeg
     

    South:
     

    32AD230E-58C4-427D-BEC9-57F3FA0C70D9.thumb.jpeg.d1dd7be1ce390bde4129cb72b54409c5.jpeg545DFD9E-6A1A-46E2-AF7C-BB9B582EEE37.thumb.jpeg.7563f49cec842419511216b1b189806f.jpeg
     

    Imagine the scenes! 😄:snowman-emoji:

    That is not a bad effort from the ECM tonight - more chance of England beating Scotland at the Euro’s next Summer 😃 but that is lovely to look at! 

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    That ECM run could be a true snow producer in the north and east if it was to come off. -6c uppers reaching the S Midlands @168 too. @Jon Snow will be more than happy. 🤗

    ECM0-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    That ECM run could be a true snow producer in the north and east if it was to come off. -6c uppers reaching the S Midlands @168 too. @Jon Snow will be more than happy. 🤗

    ECM0-168.gif

    Snow event midlands northwards at 192 hours!!temps close to 0 at midday on the 21st from north of birmingham northwards!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Choppy undercutter slider into -6> -8 air

    C29B7695-F357-453E-88BC-2C4530CA0995.thumb.png.58e7950246d810683c835511ce0b63b3.png

    😁

    Could we be looking at a january 2013 type of scenario here steve?wedge of heights around iceland sending snowy slider lows through into the continent!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC probably provides some frosts and perhaps a little snow in the elevated North...

    Something seasonal would be nice.

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