Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[swfc]

6z gfs mean looks to have a general flow wnw going forward. Nothing specific on the ens either

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs T312 spread shows 

1: favoured position of mid Atlantic upper ridge 

2: where the vortex is likely to be 

3: se European heights 

leaving w Europe as the likely destination for the trough although that’s where most uncertainty lies 

Could do with a couple of tweaks..

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Just had a look at the 6z run and haven’t caught up on the thread yet but has anyone posted this yet?

Yes,check previous page:D

[Met4Cast]

Our friend Shannon Entropy is certainly enjoying her time within the extended models & ensembles at the moment. Rather large swings between zonal & blocked patterns, seemingly for the past couple of weeks. 

This I think is largely down to the MJO. Models are really struggling to accurately forecast this up-coming pulse and whether or not it moves eastwards into the Maridians, where it decays/what impact that'll have on global patterns. 

Until models can resolve this, I'd expect to see more flip-flopping in the extended outputs, so any blocking/lack of should be treated the same, with large amounts of caution.

We need consistency and that's something that has been severely lacking in recent weeks, even the usually more stable ECM model has been struggling with the constant changes between runs. 

[damianslaw]

I picked up on the developing falling heights over Iberia yesterday evening, and the models continue to show such developments, and in the near - timeframe 120 hrs, heights inbetween low pressure to the NW and to our south enable a break in the atlantic flow, and at the same time, allow for modest height developments to our NE. Where we go from there remains uncertain, reliable timeframe tops is about 144 hr , and not much point looking beyond for a change. When you drop heights to our south, the models often struggle, and short-term developments often make a mockery of longer range outputs. Its an interesting place to be rather the traditional zonal westerly flow.

[Frosty.]

Hmmmm looking at the GEFS 6z mean it’s a broadly westerly upper flow so there is at least some potential for wintry precipitation as we approach the cusp of winter (mainly for high ground further north)..I would rather that than a turgid euro slug scuppering any wintry potential whatsoever!!!!!...for sure it’s not ideal for coldies but it’s not the end of the world as we know it...I feel fine!

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Looks like Exeter going with ukmo model...

Lots of wind and rain.....basically.

[Frosty.]

For sure the GEFS 6z is not completely without interest from a cold perspective, hey it’s far from perfect but anyways, I owe my interest in the weather blossoming from a very young age from my art teacher, a weather enthusiast ( Mr Kendal)..god bless him!, we launched small weather balloons at school for gawd sake..amazing times..hmm..I won’t bore you with how amazing that was for me!!!..anyway, here’s hoping for a better winter season than the last several..can’t be worse..surely!..I guess if I want a proper winter I should go and live in Finland at Santa Claus village..ah, if only!

Edited November 21, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Dancerwithwings]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter going with ukmo model...

Lots of wind and rain.....basically.

Naturally.....Exeter is the UKMO

[That ECM]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter going with ukmo model...

Lots of wind and rain.....basically.

The same meto that was going for settled, cool and foggy eh. They are going with what they currently see but if the trend from gfs and ecm continues they will change as they have already.

[Eskimo]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Naturally.....Exeter is the UKMO

Yes, but the MetOffice can exclude their own model. 

[SMU]

ICON out the blocks trends towards a possible decent solution > would be out of range into the +180s

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yes, but the MetOffice can exclude their own model. 

Blimey!!!  Sound like a plan....even the MO practice reverse psychology

 

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON out the blocks trends towards a possible decent solution > would be out of range into the +180s

Hopefully we see the 12z gfs go back to showing a more amplified pattern towards norway and iceland around 132 hours cos the 06z flattened things somewhat around that timeframe!!was good after that but again its too close to fi land!!

[That ECM]

A little move at t120 

[Frosty.]

Hmmmmmm...Essentially, my take on the latest mods..I mean models is a tendency towards a NW / SE or N / S split..or both!..I’m not seeing any sustained nationwide settled conditions, it looks quite typical for the time of year..I can wish for the most wintry weather I can imagine but in reality it looks preety normal overall!..of course that doesn’t preclude something exceptional occurring, but I won’t hold my breath cos I would probably expire..although I’m sure some of you would wish for that!?

Edited November 21, 2020 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

A little move at t120 

That looks a big move towards ecm and gfs!!dunno what happened to the ukmo this morning!!

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

A little move at t120 

If you right click the image and press copy, the image can be directly pasted into this thread. Saves the need to screenshot the whole browser. 

Edited November 21, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO better than this morning at 144.

[booferking]

38 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON out the blocks trends towards a possible decent solution > would be out of range into the +180s

Good to see you more upbeat on the outlook ukmo improving on its earlier run to.

[SMU]

Yes - Thats why I was keen on the GFS > theres just some patterns GFS does ok with..

GFS 138 has more of a block seperation over Scandi which is a good start

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has gone with this morning's run

ICON,UKMO and gfs at 144.

 

[SMU]

The High pressure lobe in the atlantic just west of Ireland & above the 1025MB is bigger & more inflated than the 06z which is a step towards the size of the high in 2018

Could be a food run

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Could be a food run

 

I’ll have a pizza if your doing a food run Steve
 

so far so good. Fingers crossed for at least a similar run to this morning. More importantly though we need the ECM on board later..

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ll have a pizza if your doing a food run Steve
 

so far so good. Fingers crossed for at least a similar run to this morning. More importantly though we need the ECM on board later..

TGI tonight mate for me

GFS ENS more amplifed at 120- Ever so slowly the pattern isnlooking colder at day 8 > onwards - not mega cold however a slight tweak in the flow & high & the colder pool will head this way...