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Model output discussion - Winter approaches

Paul

By Paul
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well we don’t seem to be moving in the wrong direction !  I wouldn’t go any further than that at the moment 

Well thats because you are far more sensible knowledgeable and grounded than me ! 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

JFF but here we go...

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.52f1e2c79feb133d1b49dfb502926f09.png

some of the 0z gefs ens was showing this

pert 24 is a cracker

gensnh-24-1-384.thumb.png.be6da3a87adb69b1216c57da0198f530.png

La nina print trying to show it's hand in the extended?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

image.thumb.png.adc7c6c42bf79ccfedea8af7ded83f39.png
 

It’s also nice to have a LP near the Azores rather than a very stubborn 1050mb HP!! 

What a chart image.thumb.png.0e5020e1a09d431221989d3aed437391.png

 

Edited by Ali1977
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

And Gonzo-nality!!!

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c32b468defd28b63fb41e0d4b8734e69.pngykGvmr2E_400x400.thumb.jpg.8357e1a22783fe87c8c19cf4c9e0c772.jpg

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The most promising GFS 06Z, T+384 charts of the season, so far::santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Don't they just SCREAM potential!

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Nice to see (on this run) a pattern change, with the Azores high replaced with lower heights allowing for draining of HP in the form of retrogression rather than a feed to the Russian High:

anim_pvx7.gif

Keep that pattern locked for the rest of the winter and we will be fine!

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Yozzer Apprentice

Yozzer

Posted
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Ice and snow, heat and sun!
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
Posted

Has the 6Z recently assumed the role of the pub run? Asking for a friend...

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The day 8 GFS mean isn't quite as spectacular as the GFS Det, however it does show hints of blocking across NW Europe & some evidence of Atlantic trough disruption. We're a long way from being able to get excited, but I'm seeing some signs to be positive on the outputs today.

gensnh-31-1-186.thumb.png.ae97e1451431ecef35bec7023b08eb1d.png

Evidence of a more blocked regime within the EPS clusters this morning too, so we have shifted slightly in the right direction.. for about the 6th time this month. Given how volatile output has been though, it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever to see if all shift back to a zonal looking pattern.

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
On 16/11/2020 at 13:15, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Well we got the ridge but were unlucky with too much energy going over the top and flattening it.

Positive to see the models attempting for a second try at the scandi high route this seems like the direction (hopefully) we are headed with it fitting in with phase 1 / 2 of the MJO in November, quite a few look very battleground type setup to me which can always have a chance of delivering some big snowfalls in the uk but we can worry about the finer details once we see how things develop. BF0D4228-5ED7-4910-994C-DE863A1C84EE.thumb.jpeg.f191ba0c32db20e60344a5c9ac4b1166.jpegDD7576FE-B6FD-45BB-803F-C69561D67BDA.thumb.jpeg.4b7544a94f80b9a1383d831dbf37249d.jpeg0FFBC2D1-3616-4E0E-BD45-1D7112AC9E5E.thumb.gif.3780b612ee1f5bec1bb13348ef03eb0e.gif63A63A29-42A7-49D6-A4FE-E565AFDA0D37.thumb.png.e076cdcd0b6e0ed6d9830befd460ae4d.png1920600C-CF50-4430-9E4E-AFF59F628672.thumb.png.2dfab62cf9371e6d1743ce486fa472f7.png there was one that looked a bit more iffy suppose there’s always the chance of the high being that bit too far east DCA6D7BD-6717-4DFB-990E-BF2E7C270719.thumb.gif.1e5381c5ee174205b780d495116104f5.gif

But again positive signs from my perspective and hopefully some lovely charts coming our way ⛄️

Slowly these patterns beginning to appear, again the key thing is patience I have been surprised with even some of the more experienced members basically throwing the towel in at this stage in November also the word zonal gets thrown about far too easily a truly zonal pattern would be that of say winter 2013/14 stormy, flooding and u can usually add milder temperatures but again seems to be forgotten u can get colder zonality which has provided the only snow of the last few winters up here. I’m not sure of the years with similar PV strength but I struggle to believe that every single time there has been a strong PV winter that the UK won’t still have seen colder spells, perhaps someone who is better clued up about those years could research that  

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes I think that's a fair assessment...

So much going on in the background ..we hope things fall right for us, well coldies like myself do !

Yes NWS,we deserve a bit of good fortune after last season's diabolical. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
17 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

The most promising GFS 06Z, T+384 charts of the season, so far::santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Don't they just SCREAM potential!

The footprint is back, yes potential and a trend GC. Long may it continue.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The control is of interest too with the canceling out of the trough digging south and an easterly starting to show it's hand through central Scandinavia with a very cold pool of -16 uppers.

 gensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.028e7f11fb9f029a2ac2788e5bfba173.pnggensnh-0-0-276.thumb.png.39566eecfce0e33fabee698f93625ca7.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Either way coldies have a bit of interest...

Ukmo looked horrid this morning though, so I'm super sceptical we even have a landing point at 14r hrs letalalone anything beyond.

Thats my waffling done for the morning...

Ps Karl, I hope your dad is doing OK.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Encouraging to see the models still seeing those ht. anomalies over Scandinavia, repeating this trend from last evening. 

Signs of lower pressure heading south so indications that any ridging to the east is having some effect. 

Still too much Atlantic momentum at the moment though but certainly possibilities further on. 

 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

The pattern evolution on the 06z Operational & control is almost identical to 2018 BFTE all bar one notable difference in that we get more high pressure wedged to the North forcing the cold to push back west over the UK.

Thats whats missing really...

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

^^ The control is excellent for those in central and Eastern Europe...and for those wishing for a cold Europe in general..

My only qualm with the control run is that the Iberian low could do with being further east a tad or somewhere around Genoa to stop a southerly from taking hold there but i am being picky but the overall synoptic (NH) profile looks good,i just hope that the NWP'S can hold some consistency going forward. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The pattern evolution on the 06z Operational & control is almost identical to 2018 BFTE all bar one notable difference in that we get more high pressure wedged to the North forcing the cold to push back west over the UK.

Thats whats missing really...

And a really stonking big cold pool missing.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The pattern evolution on the 06z Operational & control is almost identical to 2018 BFTE all bar one notable difference in that we get more high pressure wedged to the North forcing the cold to push back west over the UK.

Thats whats missing really...

You and me both would take op or control with open arms i bet...

The vortex is intense higher up but lower down its a different story...pondering if the blocking way to the NE is assisting us here...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Gefs T312 spread shows 

1: favoured position of mid Atlantic upper ridge 

2: where the vortex is likely to be 

3: se European heights 

leaving w Europe as the likely destination for the trough although that’s where most uncertainty lies 

3ACBFE45-D2AB-44DF-90AA-EB6880107A47.thumb.jpeg.2cbfd1b3abf0230543e1ceecc326fd09.jpeg

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Just had a look at the 6z run and haven’t caught up on the thread yet but has anyone posted this yet?

DC1053D2-755A-4C8B-9EF2-9A8A62F18632.png

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