Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[nick sussex]

59 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks very plausible though as it looks slap bang in kilter with its 240 ENS mean.

True but its wild swings in terms of operational output aren’t a good look for the model.

The ECM gets away with its high ranking upto day 6 but then drops the ball frequently after that and has been poor over the last few winters with an over amplification bias after that point .

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by nick sussex

[SMU]

06z looks a slam dunk Easterly to me.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z looks a slam dunk Easterly to me.

Gfs low res is never a slam dunk anything steve!

however, it’s good to see the gfs 06z on the same page as the ec ens mean at day 8, if only for the sake of consistency 

pits also excellent wrt to the ec day 8 spread over the Baltic states  

Edited November 21, 2020 by bluearmy

[Tim Bland]

plenty of trough disruption and eastern blocking on this run...not sure it’s enough for a UK winter wonderland but it’s a start...

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

whilst I agree that mobility remains strong, with a trend to disrupt the trough into s Europe as it crosses nw Europe, I wouldn’t see above av temps as being persistent with at least as many continental drift days as warm sector ones 

Current cross model support on the extended ens for no euro high height anoms and more likely slightly low ones coupled with a mid Atlantic high and possible North Sea/west scandi trough 

the clusters are not compelling for any particular solution (25% winter btw) and I wouldn’t rule out anything for first half December looking at the current hemispheric patterns 

 

There is one thing i would rule out for December and Jan for that matter, a spell of severe cold and snow of reasonable length for the UK.

[Eskimo]

Something to smile about for about 6 hours, at least.

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z @ t240#

and look where the Jet is heading for 1st Dec on the GFS 6z , interesting developments.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is one thing i would rule out for December and Jan for that matter, a spell of severe cold and snow of reasonable length for the UK.

I wouldn't rule anything out, @feb1991blizzard (not many, if any sustained cold spells have been successfully predicted at this range?)... But, most of all: never rule out a slam dunk disappointment!

Edited November 21, 2020 by General Cluster
Spelling

[E17boy]

Hi goodmorning peeps

Hoping everyone is well and safe. A better start to the day here in Walthamstow this morning, a bit windy but overall a few holes in the cloud as well with a bit of blue.

Back to the models firstly I put my hand up I am no great expert and I would like to thank all the knowledgable ones who kindly share their information and make more sense to people like myself. 

I came on here yesterday and read through the posts and I must admit it did make me feel a bit downbeat. I saw posts saying next 4 to six weeks are definately zonal and and some said no cold to be seen at least after the Christmas period and even some posts saying this was another season down the drain. Lovely peeps what is going on we have still got the last 3rd of November to go . What we have now is nothing unusual its typical Autumn weather and hey temperatures ok have been mild but we have no headlines of record warmth which in some years has been. The winter season has not started yet and we have a long rollercoaster ride to go through together. What the models are saying and what is in the met 30 day outlook is just an assumption of how things might pan out with current indicators. It's not a done deal and not written in permanent highlighter. We have seen although what is being  predicted might be current trends, all it needs is a few adjustments in the pattern and the whole game can change and from past experience I have seen this happen many a times ( alas more times when cold is on the cards and it all fails and probable less times when mild is on the cards and it turns cold). The weather is something we have no control over it will change when it wants and sometimes at short notices, So peeps don't be downbeat I am sure this winter will give us something to cheer about but it's probably going to be a patience game things can quickly change the whole picture. I know it's been a tough year and we all need some cheer and some snow will definately cheer us coldies ( it will come )

anyway the above is not being said to pick on anyone or anything in fact I can sometimes be in the same boat when I see charts I don't want to but that is human nature. 

Going back to the models it's looking rather unclear what is going to happen. Will pressure build over or near Scandi ? Is our  mobile pattern here to stay? It's just a matter of watching and seeing what churns out in the next couple of days. There is something however in the back of my head that I would kindly like to have some input about from the more knowledgeable ones on here. The Beijing CImate Centre - now their current thoughts are December becoming dominated by northern blocking and this becoming more notable as we go through Jan and February and even March. I know it's sounds too good to be true but can anyone shed any light as to how reliable this source is. What has been their past rating. Would love to hear on this.

Well I feel I have said loads lol but at these hard times I just want to wish everyone and their families to stay safe and be healthy. Keep an eye on the vanerable and let's hope this storm will pass us. My friend was in ICU with Covid but he pulled through and is home now.

Lets keep our heads up and hope the weather can bring us something to put a smile on our faces. 

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN

Have a great day all

stay safe

Regards

[Tim Bland]

Not sure what to make of this run. Looks like a close but no cigar ?

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is one thing i would rule out for December and Jan for that matter, a spell of severe cold and snow of reasonable length for the UK.

The old reverse psychology feb ........

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs low res is never a slam dunk anything steve!

however, it’s good to see the gfs 06z on the same page as the ec ens mean at day 8, if only for the sake of consistency 

pits also excellent wrt to the ec day 8 spread over the Baltic states  

Ha So near lol... 

At the least the models hold some interest at the moment..

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Not sure what to make of this run. Looks like a close but no cigar ?

As with most gfs runs past day 8 Tim, I wouldn’t be over analysing it !   Maybe give the dog some crayons to cross check ??

[dragan]

due to thermal gradient being all but absent in the northern hemisphere, once again we are looking at a throughly west based onslaught of weather. Neither particularly cold nor mild, rather more ‘average’

 

[Ali1977]

A Northerm blast from Greenland coming in FI by the looks of it!! Unless the HP over the U.K. struggles to retrogress!! 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The old reverse psychology feb ........

No - its this stinking big nina - if a severe cold spell doesn't happen within next 2-3 weeks which modelling suggests it wont, then it aint happening in mid winter thats a fact, for some reason i can't put by finger on it though, i wouldn't rule it out in Second half of feb - perhaps mentally re-visiting analogues - haven't actually built any this winter, either way it will not affect me because my location hasn't received a big dumping and only one of any note in the last 40 - so irrelevant for me this winter and until i can get back out to pennines.

[SMU]

So this is what we want to see 

Secondary amplification in the atlantic at day 7 that forces the trough in scandi to drop south while HP builds over the top.

Thats our route to cold...

[Methuselah]

I thought of saying, 'close but no cigar'... But, on second thoughts, maybe 'a zillion miles' off, and who's half-inched my Rizlas' might be more apt?

[Ali1977]

 

It’s also nice to have a LP near the Azores rather than a very stubborn 1050mb HP!! And some heights pushing up through Labrador which may bring us something better moving into Dec. 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Ali1977

[BlueHedgehog074]

A little summary of 00Z operational models (using 144 hour and beyond, timeframes) this morning:

00Z GFS

From Friday next week, it has a wedge of High Pressure building into Scandinavia with the Azores High pushed out to our West. Upper trough to the North-West of the UK over Iceland and Greenland. Looks primed to send Lows on a East to South-East track towards to UK against the wedge of heights over Scandinavia. The Azores High does briefly link up with High Pressure over Scandinavia through the UK at 168 hours. Then essentially, rest of the run is Low Pressure to the North-West disrupting against the high heights across Scandinavia and to our North. The High Pressure not quite close or strong enough to send Low Pressure over Western/North-Western UK far enough to the South of us. But there is one or two small runner Lows that get squashed through to the South of the UK from the main Low Pressure to our West/North. Could bring some rain or sleet across Southern UK. The run ends with a a deeper area of Low Pressure and low heights dropping down close over Western UK. The run looks quite similar to what 12Z ECMWF was showing yesterday with some heights building into Scandinavia. Quite cool overall with some Polar Maritime air getting into the mix, especially towards the West of the UK. But with some wet periods as the slow moving Lows out West bring some spells of rain, some probably wintry over hills.  
 

00Z ECMWF

Bit of a different story on the ECMWF for Friday next week. Has High Pressure pushed East over the UK, which strolls over the Scandinavia at 168 hours. Before the organised Low Pressure over North-Western UK tries to extend some of its low heights East/South-East towards the UK, the Azores High from the South-West extends a ridge Eastwards through the UK and keeps the weather settled across Southern UK. Although even Northern UK would see some settled weather at times. At the end of the run, as some of the core Low heights to the North-West of the UK heads further East towards Western Scandinavia, the Azores High gets squashed back to the South and South-West of the UK and a more cool cyclonic flow from the North-West becomes introduced for mostly North-Western UK. 

Interestingly, this is the sort of scenario the ECMWF showed a day or two ago, with areas of High Pressure quite dominant over the UK, with the Jetstream for a time on more Northerly track. The Vortex to our North-West is more organised keeping the pattern a bit flatter. Bit early to tell whether the 00Z ECMWF is on to something, but some of the drier, cool and frosty weather it’s showing would I’m sure be welcome for a few on here. Not quite the same as the GFS this morning. The GFS and ECMWF never seem to get along do they?

00Z GEM

 

Seems to, from Friday next week onwards, head in a similar direction to the GFS. Got a bit of a battle going on again between the Scandinavian block and the trough to the North-West of the UK. The Scandinavian High appears to be winning as Low Pressure to the North-West of the UK disrupts against the block and, like the GFS, sends a small runner Low through Eastwards to the South of the UK. Some rain, perhaps sleety in heavier bursts, is possible as the Low gets over to the East of the UK and fills. The run ends with a little narrow ridge in the mid-Atlantic building North with separate areas of Low Pressure in the Western Atlantic and over North-Western UK. High Pressure over Scandinavia trying to hang on, though has pushed away a little bit further North-East. Just to add as well that the upper heights over Scandinavia are higher than that on the GFS. 

So far, it feels like when looking at these operational models above, the the GFS solution seems to be more of the favoured outcome. However, the ECMWF certainly can’t forgotten about as some people mentioned earlier it has some support. 
 

Both the 6 to the 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, NOAA 500mb anomaly charts would probably favour a scenario in between what the GFS and ECMWF show with the trough to the North-West of the UK progressing a little further East. Higher than average heights getting eroded to the South of the UK, but replaced with some higher than average heights edging into the South-West of the UK. 

 

Quite a strong upper Westerly flow over the UK so probably quite unsettled, maybe less so across the South at times. And probably getting cooler from the West/North-West. There’s no upper ridge in the mid-Atlantic itself, so any phantom Northerlies would be unlikely. I’m afraid

There may be a possibility as well that models, in particular, the GEM could be overdoing Scandinavian heights a little. Any really cold or wintry conditions personally seems unlikely at the moment. Nor do I think is a constant raging mild flow from the South-West with perhaps a greater focus on Polar Maritime air, especially across North-Western areas. 

Some I understand are probably worried whether something cold and wintry will turn up in the next few weeks or so. I know a lot of people wouldn’t want a repeat of last Winter, though is plenty of time for snowy opportunities. Even some of the mild Winters have delivered (one example being Winter 2006/07 - some receiving a dumping of snow in February 2007). It’s also a case I feel that Southern areas tend to not get their first bit of wintry weather until towards Christmas time. 

Edited November 21, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding the word Weather after wintry towards end of post

[northwestsnow]

35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs low res is never a slam dunk anything steve!

however, it’s good to see the gfs 06z on the same page as the ec ens mean at day 8, if only for the sake of consistency 

pits also excellent wrt to the ec day 8 spread over the Baltic states  

We are moving in the right direction IMO Blue...

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

We are moving in the right direction IMO Blue...

Well we don’t seem to be moving in the wrong direction !  I wouldn’t go any further than that at the moment 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So this is what we want to see 

Secondary amplification in the atlantic at day 7 that forces the trough in scandi to drop south while HP builds over the top.

Thats our route to cold...

Its what I'm hoping for Steve!!

[Tim Bland]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ha So near lol... 

At the least the models hold some interest at the moment..

What a difference 24hrs makes eh! This time yesterday it was a ‘dire outlook ‘ and lots of toys were being thrown!  That’s what makes this hobby interesting...it’s never over and there’s always a chance the models will flip the next day.  I seem to recall last Sat was great and it went pear shaped on Sun , so to all readers...Try. It to get discontent if it changes for the worse again..

[swfc]

Guessing most would bank the gfs 6z esp where fi is going. I'd be going 6 days max on any output atm. Great to look at tho granted