Jump to content

Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC I dont mind, hopefully some quiter weather more suitable for outdoor walks etc....

Nice to see some troughing dropping into mainland Europe, assist booting the core PV East into Scandy !

 

6 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Which one of these is colder 🙂

Not really about temp. More about pleasant days, with fog and frost or wind and rain as northwestsnow says. Ecm is a good fit with met also. Icon and ukmo also on a similar page. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think we gona see some stunning charts  by tomorrow evening 12z!!its gona be somewhere inbetween the gfs and ecm and we gona get some more robust blocking around norway/iceland but also the disrupting lows from the gfs!!😍!!think the models are trying to get there!!!just injecting a bit of positivity!!

ECM looks like it could get interesting 👍

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC I dont mind, hopefully some quiter weather more suitable for outdoor walks etc....

Nice to see some troughing dropping into mainland Europe, assist booting the core PV East into Scandy !

I don't mind it either NWS,the ECM going with the met,the gfs going with what it wants 😃

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Not really about temp. More about pleasant days, with fog and frost or wind and rain as northwestsnow says. Ecm is a good fit with met also. Icon and ukmo also on a similar page.

That would be good, dry and sunny start to december.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

ECM looks like it could get interesting 👍

Ecm is good at that😩🤣 see where you are coming from but let’s be honest, that high could go in any direction or just stay there. Being a bit miserable but I think it will drift a little further east.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, fellmike said:

Why doesn't the gfs go out to 384 hours anymore?

Still does.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.b4b4adb9b7cce1639eec2897d4e24782.png

i don't know why though:drunk-emoji:

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Haha 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

So if we see some energy dropping into Europe we look to the Atlantic for some amplification to at least allow for polar maritime incursions...

Its La Nina, right?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 16/11/2020 at 16:52, Ali1977 said:

look at that Greeny pressure rise, epic run albeit way out in FI. This setup would produce a pretty notable cold period if it materialised.
 

image.thumb.png.8e153f2769d5ed7559b4fd3c88f88092.png

 

On 16/11/2020 at 16:54, swfc said:

For any new members or the younger end I'd book Mark this 12z gfs fi. You may not see it again for a while 👍👍👍

 

On 16/11/2020 at 16:57, SLEETY said:

Amazing consistency from gfs,better than the last run,would you believe.Very cold uppers invading now into the far North of Europe moving South

 

On 16/11/2020 at 17:05, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW! - That is run of the year so far - thats some cold pool building or about to build over the continent, get the Greeny in first and fill up the continent so when it topples we are firing a 44 magnum from the East, not a pop gun. remember with it being this early - -10 to -12c will smash the floodgates with reasonably low 500mb heights, some massive convection getting right the way to the West, 30th Nov 2010 was around -10 and a slight wave developed in unstable air and 6 inches fell in about 2 and a half hours as far West as low lying parts of Manchester.

 

On 16/11/2020 at 17:32, Allseasons-si said:

The control is gunning for the same synoptic as the gfs op,and also look at that day ten mean

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.4d6f516f08a99cf70b131acbb827ccb2.pnggensnh-0-0-240.thumb.png.fbfed4c426b992b461f8e236dc88468e.pnggensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.f208f7a9c80b4cfb24d281d30655c33c.png

day ten stamps,plenty going off to our NE.

gens_panel_gig4.thumb.png.3c8c78c879b156c4e0cb970444f0e137.png

p.S why does my OH want me to cook tea just as the 12z roll out😳

 

 

On 16/11/2020 at 17:34, swfc said:

Anyone else pondering the ec imploding and all other models following 🐭🐭🐭

 

On 16/11/2020 at 19:00, mountain shadow said:

Usual shifting East to the benefit of Greece.

 

On 16/11/2020 at 19:06, mb018538 said:

ECM is the classic uk run tonight - looks promising, then the Atlantic steams through and ruins it 😂

 

On 16/11/2020 at 20:03, DiagonalRedLine said:

I think, to be fair, that although the ECMWF run is poo poo for cold and wintry weather for the UK, Griff made a great point that it’s wise not to get hung up on every operational run. The fact also that some of these models, such as the GFS, are producing these Scandinavian/Northern UK High blocking outcomes in a time frame that can be highly variable. So it’s not too alarming to see models such as the ECMWF produce something like that. Sometimes is best to look at the overall picture, including the anomaly and mean charts, to get some sort of idea where we may head in 10+ days time - even though anomaly charts can be prone to being off the mark on some occasions. Still useful for some kind of guide, though. 

 

On 16/11/2020 at 21:05, nick sussex said:

The ECM is very underwhelming .

The writing was on the wall by day 7 and thereafter it just drags out the boredom.

The key is how far north you get the ridge before it starts to topple ne wards.

Its a role reversal with the normally more progressive GFS being more amplified and the ECM barreling far too much energy eastwards .

 

A few quoted posts to remind myself that Monday afternoon GFS looked stunning and the ECM was having none of it... 

4 days later and GFS out on its own looking unappetising.... 🤔 

🤪

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Extreme polar vortex strengthening in stratosphere,both gfs and ecm agree.

I think major pattern change about to take place,possibly what’s causing big differences

between the big boys gfs /ecm exciting stuff ahead,let’s hope.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening all 🙂

I'll put down my personal winter favourite which isn't snow (get over it) but a good old traditional anticyclone centred just north of Birmingham (1050 MB) going nowhere for 10 days. Serious inversion - daytime temperatures around or just below freezing, plenty of fog and frost, wonderful.

Anyway, before the Mods reprimand me, the key factor in this evening's models is how the LP coming out of NE Canada next week is modelled:

Starting with ECM, GEM and GFS OP 12Z at T+144:

image.thumb.png.0e55754f986f255b20bd18b4940fd9e0.pngimage.thumb.png.22602bcb77d8e6a83eb23fd5a9a8e275.pngimage.thumb.png.73ed0a71c50aa8b94d0675fbcc93127a.png 

Slight variations in the theme as you'd expect but all have a powerful storm close to southern Greenland flattening the ridge building in front of it.

On 72 hours and it goes in three different directions:

image.thumb.png.884a44f781bab2b29b17c5ec0145315a.pngimage.thumb.png.0817bbe006f6939eb9432c111dfea0ca.pngimage.thumb.png.384bfa1b8b3901751c8eec02a36beb1a.png

So that's three models and three very different evolutions. ECM swings the LP away to the NE dragging the jet north and encouraging height rises across the British Isles. GEM holds the core of the LP between Iceland and Greenland and that potent little LP is a secondary LP which developed in the flow and ran NE to the British Isles so rain and strong winds. Finally, we have GFS OP which fills the LP as it slides SE down across the British isles and note the heights building to the north which is the precursor to an interesting FI.

The end of the month conditions seem to depend on which (if any) of the three evolutions is correct. The MetO line for a colder, drier December would be supported by either ECM or GFS - different paths to the same outcome in truth. GEM looks the outlier (but GFS Control looks similar).  

 

 

 

Edited by stodge
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Extreme polar vortex strengthening in stratosphere,both gfs and ecm agree.

I think major pattern change about to take place,possibly what’s causing big differences

between the big boys gfs /ecm exciting stuff ahead,let’s hope.

Is this a good thing? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Is this a good thing? 

Regardless of individual differences, it's November heading into December, so autumn into winter, so chances are it will get colder. Depends what you're hoping for 🤷‍♂️

Keep an eye here, some very enthusiastic and helpful people with experience. 👍

Link to post
Share on other sites

Extended eps mean finally heading towards the recents gefs output end week 2 as the upper trough could have our name on it - 

clusters show the trough with 60% 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Please keep it model related in this thread. More general upcoming winter chat is best here:

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS the best we can hope for with a finger of sausage just to the north of the UK & a southerly tracking jet.

462E3DD5-A46D-4827-A298-8E262FEE005B.thumb.png.b22c8710cf961af6b93b263a7b7358f6.png9615772C-EA76-4939-8480-41F42E4C06F5.thumb.png.5968f8fc8835b53d08b378df92bde113.png

And who doesn’t love a finger of sausage? 🤨

  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The ec46 offers little for coldies but I recall a tweet on the last run which mentioned that the output contained two quite different clusters so the mean could be pretty uninformative .....cue comments re the ec46!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite divergence between ECM and GFS in the medium timeframe around 120-192 hr mark, both show an evolution to the same theme i.e. heights building into the UK. GFS takes an interesting route with the suggestion of a slider low pressure and heights building to the north  joining hands with mid atlantic heights, ECM keener in keeping the jet deflected to our NE and we see an ever building high from the south and then both east and west - very anticyclonic but with energy off the atlantic probably making inroads into NW before ridge builds in behind again - this synoptical pattern is in harmony with the Met Office outlook. UKMO looks more akin to ECM this evening.

As someone posted much depends on the trajectory of  low pressure system coming out of the NE USA seaboard.

One common theme from all models is for more of an amplified flow rather than flat zonal, already signs of this now, with todays brief NW flow.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Everyone’s so negative on this forum! Constantly Saying we aren’t getting a cold december or Christmas with snow! And putting “laughing” reactions! Do one! I’m LEAVING 

I think it is called realism. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...