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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

Has anyone seen the GEM ensemble mean at 340?

Didn’t think so!

image.thumb.png.42120657ccea6b1b3119fdea1cf3fc80.png

They’ve been very flat for quite some time so just thought apropos of absolutely nothing to put that one out there. The GEM itself post upgrade is worth a look sometimes so I wonder if the ensembles had the same retrofit?


It does also show the potential validity in @Allseasons-si’s excellent analysis above.

The EPS at the same range are roughly 60% zonal, 40% varying degrees of blocking. Not a mean like the above however.
image.thumb.png.5c63f387ac23454edd496a99a43827a9.png

 

I’m still too cross with the GEFS for its Urals high fiasco to post it at the moment 🙃

And yes @Daniel*I’m a new poster / old lurker. I realise the NWP aren’t hopeless especially when zonality is forecast. The ECM for example is formidable and even in FI it can spot trends very well. It certainly backed off Monday’s amplification a good few days ago after that one run Scandi high wonder. I was as you say referring to the amplification busts (I can think of 10+ in the last year or so) and perhaps the lack of flight data does have something to do with it. The thing is, why doesn’t it happen the other way round e.g. a zonal setup is forecast up to 6-7 days ahead and then a blocked / -NAO setup verifies? I’m sure that happens on occasions but it’s so rare compared to the usual way that I’m convinced most medium term models have an amplification bias.

Edited by Uncertainy
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3 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Firstly folks... What you won't get from me ever is a downbeat summary on the forthcoming conditions, even if those conditions suck!! It is what it is... Secondly I would like to congratulate DiagonalRedLine for posting the world's longest ever post the other day.... Wow mate, you must have one hell of a great personal assistant.. 😂 Only kidding, that was a fab and insightful post... 

All the best folks ☀️😉

Hi Matt, just seen this. Was kinda feeling down that day, which made me feel tempted to do that massive post. Longest ever? Maybe 😉 Though I suspect there’s been one or two that have been even longer... somewhere 😂😉 

Agree with what you said though. Outlook not great for any serious cold (but not to disregard that some could turn up at some point). Some cooler Polar Maritime flows behind Lows and such, certainly look possible at times in the Westerly dominated setup in the the outlook. And perhaps attempts for High Pressure to at least ridge over to the UK offering drier periods. 

Must admit, for the cold weather fans, the 12Z ECMWF seemed interesting tonight with reasonable amplification to the Atlantic ridging. Whether it will lead to something that’s favourable for cold and wintry weather I guess we’ll find out on future runs. Worth continuing to monitor what the mean and ensembles charts do as well. 

But speaking of ensembles, that GEM ensemble mean at 340 hours that uncertainy posted above/previous page is pretty decent. Suggestive of Atlantic ridging and a Scandinavian trough. Likeky a chance for something more colder and potent to develop from the North-West or North through the UK. Something more I imagine than a standard Polar Maritime flow. Whoever, though, keeps using the blu tac to ensure these charts stay stuck in FI needs to stop it. Especially if it’s our super strong tac from the Netweather office. 🤨

Sometimes, when there are charts with strong heights to the South of the UK and a mischievous Vortex to our North-West and North, I just want to fly high into the sky with a flame thrower to warm up both the Stratosphere and Troposphere. A monster High would then have no choice but to blow up to our North 🔥

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Back to some interesting output this morning. Gone is the rampant zonality and SW-NE flow. Not quite cold nirvana but it's an improvement. 

GFS brings the jet on a more NW-SE alignment and, if you look carefully, LP is disrupting over the UK owing to weak heights to the N around the middle of the run.

UKMO shows some Atlantic amplification at day 6.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Back to some interesting output this morning. Gone is the rampant zonality and SW-NE flow. Not quite cold nirvana but it's an improvement. 

GFS brings the jet on a more NW-SE alignment and, if you look carefully, LP is disrupting over the UK owing to weak heights to the N around the middle of the run.

UKMO shows some Atlantic amplification at day 6.

Lets hope the ECM follows suit. One to watch. 

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One GFS ensemble is having a laugh in the extended, an absolutely frigid west to northwesterly, one of the coldest  ever to hit the UK from that direction, a kind of return Arctic maritime flow

GFSP23EU99_462_2.png

 

Followed by a mild easterly at the 850hpa levels at least

GFSP23EU99_534_2.png

🤣

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ECMWF looking less amplified, compared to previous run, if anything but didn't someone wish for the heights in Europe to be removed? 🤔 

ECH1-168.gif

 

GFS for comparison... 

609701275_gfsnh-0-168(1).thumb.png.d250e548eaeb9688083510a037f66603.png

Edited by Griff
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Remember the beginning of the week anyone, where this was declared as being without support! 😂 

373702806_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.c796710b3936f5bb7f6182001f5445ac.gif

14794232_ECH0-240(1).thumb.gif.1137cdcab2dac46138ca892aa3036776.gif

Not sure what to make of it, more coffee needed! I mean runs... 

 

Previously 1117222530_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.b42c2872e54ba000e7362ed73fe6da48.gif

Edited by Griff
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GFS at 240 you couldn't make it up... 

gfsnh-0-240 (4).png

 

Conclusion, models perhaps having an identity crisis... And FI is a lot sooner than I thought! 

Edited by Griff
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3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS at 240 you couldn't make it up... 

gfsnh-0-240 (4).png

 

Conclusion, models perhaps having an identity crisis... And FI is a lot sooner than I thought! 

Yep, GFS and ECM head off in different directions. But at least they are interesting directions.

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1 minute ago, DavidS said:

Yep, GFS and ECM head off in different directions. But at least they are interesting directions.

Cue "both with be outliers and best check the anomaly charts" 😜

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ECM is the best of the bunch this morning. Key period is the middle to latter half of next week, where it develops a cut off low to the west of Iberia, which allows high pressure to build over the top. This doesn't happen on the GFS or GEM, and we're left with Atlantic dominated weather instead.

image.thumb.png.779c2ececec379477d6fbbde2ab95dba.pngimage.thumb.png.792b2a32ac9e2d5bb1ac16beb2f5e7c1.pngimage.thumb.png.95dc9ba1a64457883c357e3d50f069b4.png

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48 minutes ago, Griff said:

Remember the beginning of the week anyone, where this was declared as being without support! 😂 

373702806_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.c796710b3936f5bb7f6182001f5445ac.gif

14794232_ECH0-240(1).thumb.gif.1137cdcab2dac46138ca892aa3036776.gif

Not sure what to make of it, more coffee needed! I mean runs... 

 

Previously 1117222530_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.b42c2872e54ba000e7362ed73fe6da48.gif

No🧏‍♂️ it does have support it's called the metoffice.😁

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

One GFS ensemble is having a laugh in the extended, an absolutely frigid west to northwesterly, one of the coldest  ever to hit the UK from that direction, a kind of return Arctic maritime flow

GFSP23EU99_462_2.png

 

Followed by a mild easterly at the 850hpa levels at least

GFSP23EU99_534_2.png

🤣

Yes. Spat brew everywhere when saw the GFS. Improbable altitude snowfest!

Too early but it’s a start. 

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Gefs and geps both extend the mean long wave Atlantic trough into Iberia later week 2 - ecm rebuilds euro heights to our south within a more mobile picture although the end of the run indicates the heights over France and Spain becoming neutral 

clusters will reveal if eps have any appetite for the other ens solution ......

Edited by bluearmy
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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs and geps both extend the mean long wave Atlantic trough into Iberia later week 2 - ecm rebuilds euro heights to our south 

clusters will reveal if eps have any appetite for the other ens solution ......

Ec Control very similar to op at 240hr then builds big scandi block in extended.

Screenshot_20201119-075525_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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19 minutes ago, booferking said:

No🧏‍♂️ it does have support it's called the metoffice.😁

Who? Never heard of them? 😜

Interesting period of model watching, all a bit conflicting, worth watching! 

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