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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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59 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

I think Steve is employing the old 'reverse psychology' trick  😉 

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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

19 hours ago, Tony47 said:

 

Reliable timeframe, 120hrs more if the same, longer term more of the same output indications of greater amplification, let's see if it verifies.

Would like a dry spell of weather and some welcome sunshine just to brighten up what is increasingly becoming for all reasons an ever gloomy mood, which I feel quite naturally is increasing levels of despondency. 

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Just now, Beanz said:

I think Steve is employing the old 'reverse psychology' trick  😉 

LOL - he is just saying what the modelling and current state of the atmosphere is showing, When he posts cold charts he gets accused of ramping, you can't win on here sometimes!

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I’m not minding ECM 12z at all it’s much like UKMO at day 6 basically identical, more sharper in Atlantic with ridge the GFS is more flat. The ridge pushes east bringing settled and crisp weather yes please not in far reaches either. 

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Don't have the technical knowledge of Steve, but experience of model watching over 2 decades leads me to the same conclusion. 

As soon as the Icelandic low gets established and starts spinning secondary systems, it is a sure sign the the Western hemisphere PV is in rude health and not likely to go anywhere soon. 

Add to that no sign of lowering of heights in the med and it becomes a bit of a stuck pattern. 

Nov/Dec 2010 archives are often used as examples and to a degree are the holy grail. But one must remember that 2010 would probably rank as a 1 in 20 year event in the pre-warming era, so it gives an idea of how rare an event it would be in these times. 

In the absence of any major stratospheric forcing events, best hope for the first third of winter will be northerly topplers or perhaps wedges of heights cropping up at short notice, but even these will probably fall the wrong side of marginal given the generic warmth in northern Europe.

The only positive is the a strong PV might bottle up extreme cold that can be tapped into later if a pattern change does emerge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

LOL - he is just saying what the modelling and current state of the atmosphere is showing, When he posts cold charts he gets accused of ramping, you can't win on here sometimes!

Exactly. He’s just stating what is there, and that is it’s unusual to get a PV this strong and end up with anything other than disappointing weather. 2009/10 is the obvious outlier, but it’s not usually a good sign.769C7C59-3A39-4997-A164-AA9B63D94886.thumb.png.fc1a0b7504d9712f5648333efdbe89a5.png

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Northern hemisphere profile shown on ECM quite good for building a colder outlook, deep aleutian low, and heights over the pole and n scandi, this would allow the jet to elongate on a more NW-SE trajectory and trough disruption perhaps. 

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly. He’s just stating what is there, and that is it’s unusual to get a PV this strong and end up with anything other than disappointing weather. 2009/10 is the obvious outlier, but it’s not usually a good sign.769C7C59-3A39-4997-A164-AA9B63D94886.thumb.png.fc1a0b7504d9712f5648333efdbe89a5.png

The positioning is just as important weirdly this is ignored, wasn’t it near record breaking in December 1978? The intense vortex was in Eurasia. The same is true in outlook it’s not quite as hostile as you might think, at least in next 2 weeks it seems to largely not be in our way. 

 
D1FE6378-D061-43CA-8ED0-C8158B275A9D.thumb.png.546c684143fa4de3f8be9d6c7eb0fdcf.png

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1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

The ECM from 192 hrs begin to start the building blocks that the met office has been

saying for some time.

Agreed.

Which is why I'm staying hopeful...there is no coupling at present ,of course there are tons of other things going in the atmosphere and the oceans,so we wait to see how the cards fall.

EC is much better this evening with lots of 'greens ' in the NH...

 

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DEAR WINTER

With the new season not far away us coldies wanted to forward you a plan for your organisational structure. This plan will help satisfy the needs of coldies and keep good customer relations for the season. The structure and role for the staff is as follows:-

WIND
Mr West, Mr Southwest and MR south - these have been the most under performers in the past and their air has been spoilers of many seasons  therefore it is highly recommended we had them redundancy notices

Mr High Pressure has the role of migrating business far north and setting up base either in Greenland or Scandinavia . This will help Mr East wind and Mr Northerly to deliver products to coldies. At the same time we must keep an eye on Mr Azores High and make sure he doesn't get close to our shores

We must ensure all logistical transport routes are clear from Siberia and Iceland so that Mr East and Mr North can access the uk easily. Brecht should not cause any delay.

If competition becomes tough during the season we must have SSW on hand ready to turn up the heat up north so that the flow i of goods is reversed in our favour.

Mr cold and Mr Snow must perform the best for the organisation to do well and we recommend constant contact with Mr East and Mr North wind is kept at all times so all knowledge combined will give the best result.

Mr MJO must try to stick to his post and try to achieve phase 7 or 8

QBO you need to aim for an Easterly impact 

That's our strategy for this winter. With all the above things in place I am sure this season we will profit .

The advertising has started let the strategy run. We would appreciate if all the above is taken into serious consideration for this season.

Thanking you in advance

Your sincerely winter
From COLD STARVED COLDIES

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11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Northern hemisphere profile shown on ECM quite good for building a colder outlook, deep aleutian low, and heights over the pole and n scandi, this would allow the jet to elongate on a more NW-SE trajectory and trough disruption perhaps. 

Yep, I'm liking the 'ridgy' theme of today's output. Lets hope this continues on tomorrow's modelling. Who knows? The output tomorrow may be even more ridgy 😊

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18 minutes ago, E17boy said:

We must ensure all logistical transport routes are clear from Siberia and Iceland so that Mr East and Mr North can access the uk easily. Brecht should not cause any delay.

Brecht (sic) ... perfect timing for the Beast to put in an appearance. No science, no teleconnections no gut feeling, just the simple law of Sod. The east wind is probably the only visitor that can have unfettered access to the UK. 

 

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Not bad from the ECM . A 6/10 for potential , day 7 into 8 could turn out quite differently with a bit more sharpness to the upstream troughing and the ridge further north .

Given what was on offer immediately after the blocking to the east climbdown it could have been worse .

So overall tonight’s outputs are a small step in the right direction for coldies .

Hopefully not another false dawn !

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28 minutes ago, booferking said:

All the talk about zonal wind and 2010-11 below and this years prediction so far for anyone interested.

dec_2010.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201118-192333_Chrome.jpg

Problem is though there is no sign in the modelling yet, this time back then we were going into the freezer very quickly with little pointing to us coming out, once those ridges were thrown up and waves broke into the strat, that stopped coupling, this year is an even stronger nina predicted, we have very little window of opportunity before the atmosphere and ocean couples, and once that happens, if no HLB has occured ridging up to the pole, the strat-trop coupling will just lock the pattern in until either winter ends or a full on over the top SSW occurs (less likely in WQBO years)

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1 hour ago, Uncertainy said:

Favourable ridges, even mid latitude UK highs need X model agreement down to T96 to verify. We all know that really.  

Evening, you seem to be new here? But err not sure I agree there, the models aren’t that hopeless they do seem to struggle more in winter, there’s usually much less danger with mid latitude blocking, often these are well signalled in 7-10 day range and more often than not come to fruition at present there’s no bullish sign or of anything substantial. On separate note, very mild southwesterly winds in recent days, were very well forecast in advance by ECM but the mild patterns are much easily forecast. I would say the models this year have been behaving woefully I suspect it is also to do with the lack of flights getting highs altitude data. It’s funny I thought in early 2010s the models were better than recent years, where’s the improvement? I can’t discern any.

Forecast 09/11/20 and reality.

97CBD9E6-4E6C-44B5-8ED5-F14DE312A5F3.thumb.jpeg.0af52e35c9bd920299bb0c4aebdc70fe.jpegC4DA0B37-CC1E-4310-BA84-D25171B4B72F.thumb.png.495bef051ddd6374ab5450c3137e56c6.png

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3 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Ref the UKMO. Decent chart on the face of it but the ridging, which is better than the GFS Op, and virtually all of the ens will most likely topple as the next system piles in.

UKMO

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.b9b3f8a63513ca3b7ee5247c45ecddc7.png

Compared to GFS Op

GFSOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.9a4bd289fe6f2354845f6715e1ad584f.png

 

Whilst there seems to currently be very little appetite for that system to disrupt, P03 does show the system downstream (the one just to the NE of Iceland) disrupting, creating a cutoff low, and bringing about a far more favourable outcome...

 

I'm not saying this is more likely (It is currently not), just something to look out for (or cling on to? 🙂 ) in the coming few days of chart outputs.

GFSP03EU12_144_1.thumb.png.da3786889d1460745021d9c8eab14e6e.pngGFSP03EU12_156_1.thumb.png.a1eb972df83b7550bb97756d916d9bf5.pngGFSP03EU12_180_1.thumb.png.3a96388b312e682269ac8ec9a73731bc.png

 

Lol. I see the ECM then went and did a GEFS P3. I still think there is just too much westerly momentum for anything too extreme but I do see a mid lat high by the end of the month

 

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6 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Firstly folks... What you won't get from me ever is a downbeat summary on the forthcoming conditions, even if those conditions suck!! It is what it is... Secondly I would like to congratulate DiagonalRedLine for posting the world's longest ever post the other day.... Wow mate, you must have one hell of a great personal assistant.. 😂 Only kidding, that was a fab and insightful post... 

Anywho, I'm not totally convinced as to were we are heading long term with our conditions, Exeter still talking of colder than average conditions come next month.. Regarding the EC46, High pressure ridging does look the best bet moving on further, and this more especially so towards the South... More Northern areas still being prone to something more unsettled at times, but not exclusively! So some chillier conditions at times with an obvious risk of frost also. At present any colder weather that does occur could be most likely a colder NWTLY type feed at times.. I'm not seeing any signs of major signs of any major Heights in the Greenland area, or the Scandy location for that matter. All along way off and plenty to play for at this early stage... Anyway Lockdown will be over soon, and only to be replaced with a tier 4 system... 😂 This year is the worse in living memory... Whatever happens next can surely to god, only be an improving picture... 

All the best folks ☀️😉

If it can, it will get worse. I'm not liking the Icelandic low feature, that could easily stick for weeks and have many parts of the uk flooded, again, repeatedly.

Crisp sunny, windless days - seems like a lifetime ago...

 

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Forecast for sub 528 dam air at times through rest of the month more so northern parts, this is being evidenced right now, a cold 24 hrs on the way. Classic cold/mild zonal flow, rather than that stuck mild zonal flow as we have seen this month. 

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