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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    33 minutes ago, booferking said:

     

    I'll be ignoring nothing in the fi this is model thread discussion and if the signals are pointing towards charts like that in fi (ie) metoffice outlook la nina footprint then charts like this have merit by the way the chart posted is not exactly winter wonderland it's a cold zonality only wintry showers for the north hence metoffice outlook oh and there it appears again.🙂

    gfsnh-0-384.png

    That chart is utterly hideous. Flat NH profile and strong vortex. No thanks! An underwhelming set of 12z runs again. We’re going to have to play the long game as usual folks.

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    Not sure if I agree with people saying "it's only middle of November, plenty of winter left." In my experience, the next four weeks will set the tone of the winter. Winters very rarely deliver (at least in Central Europe) if there is no cold spell from middle of November to middle of December. And based on today's runs we can probably write off at least the next ten days. Not that I'm surprised. I very much doubt this winter will be different from the last seven or so.

    Edited by daz_4
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    Just now, daz_4 said:

    Not sure if I agree with people saying "it's only middle of November, plenty of winter left." In my experience, the next four weeks will set the tone of the winter. Winters very rarely deliver (at least in Central Europe) if there is no cold spell from middle of November to middle of December. And based on today's runs we can probably write off at least the next ten days.

    While I usually agree with that statement, I would say anything up until mid December is up in the air. A cold winter could still happen from that point on.

    1984/85, 85/86 and 86/87 all had fairly mild spells during November and December, then the cold came during or after Christmas. 
     

    2009, and 10, along with 12 and 17 winters did seem to produce some chilly weather before late November. 
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    That chart is utterly hideous. Flat NH profile and strong vortex. No thanks! An underwhelming set of 12z runs again. We’re going to have to play the long game as usual folks.

    Unfortunately that's what metoffice going for up until end the of Nov dryer weather the further south east you go with frost fog & some unsettled interludes further north with chance wintry precipitation over high ground.

    Its into December that things could get more interesting (ie) blocked & colder enjoy the chase.😃

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    Just logged in for winter model watching 😨

    Not much to see atm 

    Will be back when the beast from the east appears at t72

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z

    spacer.png Euro4 12 z

    A bit of snow for the Scottish hills on Thur with the brief Northerly. 

    Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    A few posts discussing past winters have been moved over to the Early run up to Winter thread.
    Model output discussions in this thread please. Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 hour ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Will be back when the beast from the east appears at t72

    See you in a few years then...😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z

    spacer.png Euro4 12 z

    A bit of snow for the Scottish hills on Thur with the brief Northerly. 

    Welsh Mountains and Yorkshire Moors too based on that chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    20 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

     

    GFS yesterday has three blocked outlooks longer term, today complete flip, only GFS can do this. Fully expect more flip flopping in days ahead.. 

    .

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Several posts moved over to the early run up to Winter thread.

    As @Blessed Weather mentioned a few posts up - keep it to model discussion please folks..

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Let’s see what today brings, but the overnight GFS definitely shifts the PV to the Russian side of the NH and away from Greenland, which is often a good thing for coldies. Northern USA and Canada would be exceptionally warm for the time of year with this set up. image.thumb.png.0be69a269b19d6bd010ef57ebf2e49b3.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

    Let’s see what today brings, but the overnight GFS definitely shifts the PV to the Russian side of the NH and away from Greenland, which is often a good thing for coldies. Northern USA and Canada would be exceptionally warm for the time of year with this set up. image.thumb.png.0be69a269b19d6bd010ef57ebf2e49b3.png

    And we still end up with a little shortwave feature to the west of us😂🤣

    Obviously it will chop n change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Morning all!

    ECM 240 (I know...I know 😄) seems the way forward at the moment - from a purely IMBY perspective I am banking that all day long. 
    Local higher hills/mountains for a snowy walk/hike at least! :santa-emoji:

    You know what they say...one man’s crock of 💩 is another man’s treasure...😁 

    A1B583B8-B7E5-49F2-A344-9496B6A5CD1B.thumb.gif.853ad1672fbb7c31b732d8c52a45807f.gifCBCD0385-FEFE-43CB-AA5D-A592EA32E1D3.thumb.gif.7eaa58a639aa54ac3987d298b21c9e38.gif
     

    2BBE0C8A-AB37-42E0-BA4E-BD66F6243CA9.thumb.jpeg.cac05d601b0fe2258df0d6db9a71710d.jpeg
     

    83BAA2C2-E0DA-44C4-B229-DA20A4868EA8.thumb.jpeg.b7646c97867c53ed1f92bcc1119f19cd.jpeg
     

    Have a good day everyone and hopefully we get some eye candy (cold/snow) UK and Ireland wide into a reliable timeframe within the next couple/few weeks at least. :reindeer-emoji:
    Not excluding the risk of wintry potential tonight/tomorrow as discussed in previous posts. :santa-emoji:

    All the best!

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.36062b3457ebcc02cb919939e04e5573.png

    Longer term cluster one is awful today. Very strong +NAO pattern. Cluster 2 still holds interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Runs are looking a little more ridgy in the north atlantic on today's runs compared to yesterday. Compare yesterday's 06z run for next Tuesday to today's. 

    Screenshot_20201118-101110.png

    Screenshot_20201118-101039.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Runs are looking a little more ridgy in the north atlantic on today's runs compared to yesterday. Compare yesterday's 06z run for next Tuesday to today's. 

    Screenshot_20201118-101110.png

    Screenshot_20201118-101039.png

    And again for next Wednesday. 

    Screenshot_20201118-101915.png

    Screenshot_20201118-101849.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Deary me, doesn't the GFS 06Z look great ... plenty of drying paint to flow under the bridge, before we see any snow, methinks?:santa-emoji:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Yikes, tPV getting organised and powering up in FI:

    Early>>gfsnh-0-54.thumb.png.3de0b9dd13d7acc9d0d95069e1da5ef6.png  Later>>   gfsnh-0-366.thumb.png.fa54ca16b5c5c5823fbe126089864c33.png

    The modelling of the tPV may be GFS aligning with the spooling up of the sPV so I will treat that with caution.

    Day 8 to D16 looks like the mixed westerly flow will swap to a UK HP on this run:

    anim_exz4.gif

    So no sign of a long-term pattern at the moment; a mixed bag, bit of this and a bit of that? 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Latest view from the 500 mb anomalies

    Wednesday 18 th November

    Ec-gfs and ec is trying to develop troughing down to n Africa with slight height rises w’ern atlantic with w’ly flow into uk; gfs has the trough just w of uk/Iberia so flow into uk is s of w; less +ve height rises w atlantic; over n America differences in far w with ec showing centre w of Alaska and gfs e of same

    Noaa shows broad w’ly atlantic into uk but turning s of w with main ne Canada/Greenland trough influencing things, some tendency for lack of flow s of 50n as rounded trough extends towards Iberia, western n America and it has minor troughing off w coast and its main trough/low is well w of Alaska.

    Nothing on any of these 3 somewhat similar charts (ec-noaa especially) yet suggests any marked wave change in the 6-10 day period; noaa 8-14 neither has any indication of this, with basically a w’ly atlantic flow into uk, slight signal for flow turning n of w into iberia

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    It's looking chilly for a time in the near-immediate timeframe..

    image.thumb.png.42357fe54012c8af6a98139553a5d87b.png

    image.thumb.png.b72d24d4d2318c2bd1f1df007e794e5f.png

     

    Is there evidence to suggest the jet is sinking southwards a tad in the more longer term, perhaps allowing better chance of some colder incursions from the NW/N

    image.thumb.png.5dc04020bdaacea720d1a7420056c0dc.png

     

    image.thumb.png.d55ef2316c655895c526af39eee4b07f.png

    image.thumb.png.0df695642e325c26fc6b3965fb858f07.png

     

    One may look, with a degree of optimism, at the 6z extended GEFS ensembles which in its more extended range show a marked cool down in the upper air temperatures (in contrast to what is often a huge degree of scatter at this range). 

    image.thumb.png.90590541ebf39837c1fdbb3aa88f64d3.png

    (mean)

    image.thumb.png.1fc5396870124b49f14792441b4611a6.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Absolutely bonkers GFS ensemble in the extended range

    GFSP22EU99_606_1.pngGFSP22EU99_606_2.png

    From the view of the cold weather fans, how great that would have been if that was the Northerly we were getting tomorrow instead ❄️

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