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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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I know which run I prefer the look of but I also know which ever I express as a preference will get shot down in flames by someone for quite valid reasons... 

... Actually at imaginary day 10 they both look on the milder side, but leaves the door open for some something more interesting... 

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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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6 hours ago, Griff said:

Considering this will all have changed come tomorrow morning, probably best if we all just move along now, nothing to see here... 😱 

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It has changed Griff, its worse 👀👀

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T240 ecm and gfs. And a pert randomly 😩🤣 picked. 

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ECM is a genuine surprise to me.. 861915368_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.a451eb840be9999b229d6d70243b1ba7.gif

 

UKMO interesting too

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What a tease for a Monday morning! 

Edited by Griff
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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No massive changes but the trend we need to see whereby enough split jet with trough disruption taking lower heights into Europe is becoming more evident on the gefs mean and some ops in fi .... slowly slowly .......

Getting rid of the Euroland heights is critical, as you know....

😊

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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

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Cluster 2 please! Cluster 1 just looks dreadful with a flat +NAO pattern.

The key time frame really is around 168h where both clusters show promise of the Scandi trough to dip south,or at least south east to prevent the wave breaking high from collapsing, it would be most unfortunate to end like cluster 1 from 360h,but you know its 2020 and what can go wrong will. 

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5 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Euro heights almost as irritating as Covid.

Euro high as absolutely brutal here in winter,constant inversion,as the dates progress I am turning in to coldest inversion place in central Europe.Already havent gone above 4C since 11.11 and thats under uppers of +5C 

20201116_095243.jpg

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10dayrain.thumb.jpg.858f37ee1e33ffbe4d7b1818e35afc4f.jpg

Your experience of the next 10 days may vary a great deal depending on where you are in the UK!

NW Scotland, NW England, Western Wales and the higher ground in particular in these areas could receive an absolute deluge. NW Scotland especially, with 150mm+ possible.

Meanwhile, many central, eastern and southeastern areas may wonder what all the fuss is about as they see 10mm or below. Big contrasts!

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Euro high as absolutely brutal here in winter,constant inversion,as the dates progress I am turning in to coldest inversion place in central Europe.Already havent gone above 4C since 11.11 and thats under uppers of +5C 

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Looks nice. Equals loads of rain without any real threat of a windstorm for my location so just mundane, mild and wet. The chart posted above sadly confirms it ha.

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Avoid the flip-flops , lol...

But this doesnt make good viewing if its a route to cold you are seeking. The 8-14 dayer is similar.

Its looking like Autumn 2020 / November 2020 is going out rather benign and boringly  with a milder unsettled theme.

 

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6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Avoid the flip-flops , lol...

But this doesnt make good viewing if its a route to cold you are seeking. The 8-14 dayer is similar.

Its looking like Autumn 2020 / November 2020 is going out rather benign and boringly  with a milder unsettled theme.

 

610day.03.gif

Unsettled? Depends on which part of the uk you are I guess.

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14 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Looks nice. Equals loads of rain without any real threat of a windstorm for my location so just mundane, mild and wet. The chart posted above sadly confirms it ha.

Since October we have a sunshine deficit of over 100hrs here,which is a lot considering we are used to prolonged Indian summers in Octobers recently. It has been a strange year weather wise, although global temperatures would suggest very warm weather by mean, it had not been the case here, in May we had severe frosts, very wet June,changeable July and 2 week heatwave in August, then again record wet October and nearly record dull weather in autumn,certainly a far cry from 2015,2018 or 2019 hot years, it as been wettest year since 2010 here. 

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43 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Avoid the flip-flops , lol...

But this doesnt make good viewing if its a route to cold you are seeking. The 8-14 dayer is similar.

Its looking like Autumn 2020 / November 2020 is going out rather benign and boringly  with a milder unsettled theme.

 

610day.03.gif

Not a surprise given the cross model means (sundays chart is pure naefs)  but with two very different evenly weighted clusters, perhaps this is a time when the mean won’t be quite as useful as it usually is ?  the favourite is clearly the pos NAO with sceuro ridge at best and euro at worst ...but there is certainly a trend in the nwp to amplify quite notably in week 2 

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