Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Zak M]

If the GFS went up to 400+ hrs then I wouldn't be surprised to see a cold shot lead by possible blocking over Greenland, Iceland and the N Atlantic. You can also notice some cold air arriving into C. Europe, we would need that Atlantic blocking to migrate westwards for any chance of some cold coming from the continent.

The 12z GEM is quite a chilly run with the cold nearby into Scandi as the jet dives south - way into FI of course

   

Could this be a very good NH pattern as we head into December? Asking for a friend..

 

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Zak M

[Frosty.]

WOW..looking at the Gfs 12z operational...I was right not to tell my family there was a freeze coming and  to stock up on food / provisions to hunker down..wow...talk about Blink or miss it...darn it I just blinked, and missed it ..! Like most cold incursions in the u k..anyway...I suggest a quick drive up to northern Scotland next Thursday morning for a hailball / sleetball / snawball fight..anyone up for it?...it’s a hot topic..and it’s still autumn..imagine how exciting winter won’t be...!!  !

Edited November 15, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Control looks more amplified too

sorry for the quick post's as i am trying to see to the sunday roast too

 

[Chesil View]

Somewhat interestingly todays 12z gfs at 384 is very similar to yesterdays 12z gfs at 384.

High pressure UK northwestwards to Greenland and negatively tilted low pressure central /western Atlantic.

[bluearmy]

Gefs amplified enough ..... I guess it just depends how the dominoes fall in week 2 as to where the upper ridge sets up and if it manages to amplify in an area to deliver anything deeply cold to nw Europe .... 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Gefs amplified enough ..... I guess it just depends how the dominoes fall in week 2 as to where the upper ridge sets up and if it manages to amplify in an area to deliver anything deeply cold to nw Europe .... 

12z highlights perfectly why a Sceuro high is not always a bad thing for NW Europe....

 

[swfc]

34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This looks a very dry run with plenty of fog and frost on the cards while the high migrates W/NW,lovely run.

At 300 hrs plus

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

12z highlights perfectly why a Sceuro high is not always a bad thing for NW Europe....

 

It's way in fi and more given the outputI'd assumed you were going Atlantic ridge Nina footprint pal 

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's way in fi and more given the output

Well yes and no...

Personally I think coldies are in a decent place as December beckons....

[Allseasons-Si]

The control reads my mind

[Duane S.]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control reads my mind

It’s a corker. Makes more of trough disruption in the Atlantic around 9 days time..

[Scandinavian High.]

Are we starting to see colder dryer high pressure dominated end November- December now . meto as mentioned  in there long range text up dates. This might not be cold snow we are looking for now could be building blocks to something more wintery later on..

Edited November 15, 2020 by abbie123

[Griff]

Well at least the Atlantic is held back... 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Well at least the Atlantic is held back... 

It's a great chart only problem is to the north west. Dry tho granted 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's a great chart only problem is to the north west. Dry tho granted 

I'm already feeling jaded and we're only halfway through November, yes it could be a lot worse! Not allowing myself to dream beyond 10 days... 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm already feeling jaded and we're only halfway through November, yes it could be a lot worse! Not allowing myself to dream beyond 10 days... 

Yep be a long winter Griff don't take it to serious man

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[Anthony Burden]

gfs and ecm singing from the same hymn sheet,both now going for high pressure all

the way from 168hrs.For cold lovers all about positioning,it may begin in wrong position 

but may well move to better orientation to bring colder conditions.My take is a possible 

southeast to east wind from a high positioned some where in Europe.The proof will be in the pudding.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs and ecm singing from the same hymn sheet,both now going for high pressure all

the way from 168hrs.For cold lovers all about positioning,it may begin in wrong position 

but may well move to better orientation to bring colder conditions.My take is a possible 

southeast to east wind from a high positioned some where in Europe.The proof will be in the pudding.

Love a pudding me, steak and kidney. Amazing

[dragan]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs and ecm singing from the same hymn sheet,both now going for high pressure all

the way from 168hrs.For cold lovers all about positioning,it may begin in wrong position 

but may well move to better orientation to bring colder conditions.My take is a possible 

southeast to east wind from a high positioned some where in Europe.The proof will be in the pudding.

pudding proof? What?

The high won’t move north or east for that matter, odds on for it to get pushed far eastward due to the pressure gradient around the high, it’s always the case.

Thus, allowing the waxing and waining of south to north westerly influence throughout.

Unless the fluidity of the high and low pressure reverse due to unstable air, it’s not likely to happen i’m afraid.

[Frosty.]

 

 That’s a pretty good GEFS 12z mean for those of us hoping for a cold / blocked start to the meteorological winter!  

 

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, dragan said:

pudding proof? What?

The high won’t move north or east for that matter, odds on for it to get pushed far eastward due to the pressure gradient around the high, it’s always the case.

Thus, allowing the waxing and waining of south to north westerly influence throughout.

Unless the fluidity of the high and low pressure reverse due to unstable air, it’s not likely to happen i’m afraid.

I'm done night

[jules216]

Well I am liking what I see for me in Slovakia 12Z runs almost too good to be true.With the recent swings and roundabouts of recent fails I am still sitting on the fence despite mean at day 6 showing -6 at 850hPa.Being on the cold end of that high pressure it will for sure be very frosty but looks like a dry feed for now

Edited November 15, 2020 by jules216
spelling

[Geordiesnow]

Heights gaining to our south, PV setting up over Greenland, largely westerly south westerly airflow barring the quick cold shot by the end of the week, it's a poor outlook for anything seasonal. 

Even losing the frost risk now as there be too much wind around. 

[Mr Frost]

I know most of us in here are looking for cold/wintry charts but Tuesday is looking very mild!

We could see 15C registered in Scotland, England, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales! 
Pretty impressive for mid November - if it actually becomes reality. 

Dare I say that will feel quite pleasant in any sunshine.  

 

Wee bit of rain about - Western Scotland getting the worst of it. 

Always nice to see a bit of interesting weather - no matter what type it is.

I shall see myself out now and return to my cold/snowy ways going forward. 

All the best!

[Griff]

Pub run seems to be stuck on a repeat of the 12z early doors 

Not quite as amplified but still in the same direction 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Griff