Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

In all honesty, I do not much care for the 06Z's evolution... a perpetual drift of ex-Mediterranean air, with T850s at around +4C certainly isn't going to give me what I want... SNOW!

    

More runs needed!

It's that auntie Nina footprint il tell thi!!! Yes everything is too far south isn't it ie high near Scandinavia. Poor 850s threw Europe altho faux cold be on the cards

[nick sussex]

One things for sure we don’t want the UKMO output to verify . By day 6 the blocking to the east is aligned poorly . Even though it has some trough disruption hard to see how that could evolve in a favourable manner for cold.

Both the ECM and GFS at least provide potential and you don’t need a team of scriptwriters to see how they could deliver some interest.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office who suggested settled conditions for the first part of December,then changed their 

forecast to unsettled after gfs showed Atlantic on slaught.Perhaps should have remained with

the first forecast.

I agree I said exactly same the other day.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, dragan said:

regardless of partial graduation, ultimately we end up with a mild south easterly.......not all easterlies are equal according to Jack, and you can see that in evidence  

Mild sou’easterlies in late nov/early Dec are rare 

[Methuselah]

My, my, doesn't the 06Z end on a stupefyingly exciting note... the last time I encountered a cold pool as small as that, was when I spent a morning at Maida Vale's lido!

    

[dragan]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Mild sou’easterlies in late nov/early Dec are rare 

yip, straight from the med

[Anthony Burden]

21 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I agree I said exactly same the other day.

Nothing certain yet ,but perhaps a little more faith in Glosea.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, dragan said:

yip, straight from the med

Which run are you referencing and if it’s the 06gfs op I think you should check the surface temps associated with the ‘mild med flow’ 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Nothing certain yet ,but perhaps a little more faith in Glosea.

They didn’t change their forecast for Dec based on a few gfs ops .....

[swfc]

26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

My, my, doesn't the 06Z end on a stupefyingly exciting note... the last time I encountered a cold pool as small as that, was when I spent a morning at Maida Vale's lido!

    

You know what they say "get the cold in first" and the sn/rain will follow like I said faux cold maybe whatever that actually is

[Anthony Burden]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They didn’t change their forecast for Dec based on a few gfs ops .....

It would be interesting for the general public who like meteorology to know why,and

what they based their change of mind.

[SMU]

Updated everyones favourite model NAVGEM 180

[Griff]

A little more activity here than I'd expected. 

I'd also assumed a bleaker out look over the next week.

Looking ahead, this could certainly be worse... 

As I think others have commented, and probably with greater knowledge, the Atlantic on the ECM in FI

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated everyones favourite model NAVGEM 180

What was it like previously? 

To my eyes seems more ECM than GFS like  

Edit: and also like the ICON. 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Griff

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

What was it like previously? 

To my eyes seems more ECM than GFS like  

Edit: and also like the ICON. 

I wasnt really comparing > only highlighting more energy in the southern arm of the jet creates better westerly advection over Europe!

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, abbie123 said:

I agree I said exactly same the other day.

Did mention this earlier that jma maybe was on to this before any other model and if it does end up being correct then hats off to it!!jma trumping ecm and ukmo now i cant remember the last time that happend

[Griff]

37 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Did mention this earlier that jma maybe was on to this before any other model and if it does end up being correct then hats off to it!!jma trumping ecm and ukmo now i cant remember the last time that happend

Am I making it up or didn't the jma spot February 2018?

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Am I making it up or didn't the jma spot February 2018?

 

If it did then boy we better get ready for a belter of an easterly on the way!!!!!!but on a serious note maybe it specialises in picking up these easterlies and scandi highs

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Think it was Icon.

Ta. Also seen social media posts of gfs counting it down, but presumably later to pick it up? 

[bluearmy]

There are archive charts on meteociel if you want to find out which model picked feb 18 ..... chances are that because gfs goes to day 16 four times a day it must have found something in the distance purely by accident ! 

[Nick F]

Not a mild outlook if you take the 00z EC ensemble average T2m for London

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

41 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Not a mild outlook if you take the 00z EC ensemble average T2m for London

 

Indeed Nick, it seems to hover around the 5*C mark towards later next week and beyond, which is rather chilly for the city and surrounding area.

Edited November 22, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 06 z ensemble 2 M temps

A pretty chilly 4 c mean for N Yorkshire on the GEFS too ( after 26th Nov )

[Eskimo]

After plotting the 2m temps (for Birmingham) for the last 4 runs, you can see that the recent 06z run was the coldest from mid-range through to the end. However the 0z from early this morning was one of the warmest over the same period. 

This proves that we can't hang on to every run. The only timeframe 'nailed' is the next 4-5 days...beyond that is anyone's guess. I'll plot the 12z when the GEFS come out and see if there's any similarities with the 06z.

What is consistent is how chilly (at least) the outlook is. Maxes of around 3-6C as we go into December.

Edited November 22, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[SMU]

Very seasonal 12z GFS with low Theta E temps for NW Europe & dead stationary air!