Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[TSNWK]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 of all 3 models. 

Thamks for sgarong.. Gfs look great there.. Ukmo poor and ECM middle.. Main point from me is wow! Such differences at 144 how can anybody be sure to write off 1st 2 weeks  of December?

Edited November 21, 2020 by TSNWK

[Griff]

From the excitement of last weekend to Monday night's epic let down.... Back to well the swapping seen yesterday, this morning isn't a terrible place to be looking at, going forward the ECM in FI looks less energetic out to the Atlantic even if it's not as keen at building Scandi heights. Change of pattern to the east in Europe and as far as Russia, remain to be seen, but particularly the south definitely of interest. 

 

FYI this is where we currently stand. So we might end up back in a broadly similar position! 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Griff

[IDO]

Still no sign of a pattern change, those three mid-latitude blocks, Russia, Azores and Pacific HP systems are omnipresent. What ECM struggled with was a smaller HP cell breaking off the Azores and moving in a NE direction enabled via the low heights at the Bay of Biscay:

ECM >>> 

That HP cell merges with the Russian high, the cycle of the NH at the moment. We no doubt need a Rossby Wave flow to enable that cell to stick to Scandi, as the PV is spinning around the pole and dragging HP cells with it. 

Expecting the models to adjust the flow of the Atlantic as they work out the finer details but this appears to be a fluid NH flow for the next 12 days or so, and then maybe could give way to forcing from the MJO in December?

[mountain shadow]

The Atlantic is the winner in the overnight runs with any blocking far to far away to influence these islands. 

Primarily above average temperatures and rainfall for the next three weeks or so.

Edited November 21, 2020 by mountain shadow

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Atlantic is the winner in the overnight runs with any blocking far to far away to influence these islands. 

Primarily above average temperatures and rainfall for the next three weeks or so.

Respectively disagree on basis that both GFS and ECM at 168 do not have atlantic and UK is under influence of blocking with lowering heights to our south.. UKMO is pants at 144 granted.

However in general I sense positive swing for coldies in the middle term these past 24 hours and with that being said how can we have any confidence longer term.. objectively it works both ways regardless if longer term is cold or mild 

Edited November 21, 2020 by TSNWK

[sheikhy]

Hmmm interesting overnight runs!!gfs and ecm block the atlantic up to 192 hours!!!maybe jma was on to something here?

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm interesting overnight runs!!gfs and ecm block the atlantic up to 192 hours!!!maybe jma was on to something here?

Show me the money... I mean JMA, I'll add, please

 

[IDO]

Only subtle changes to the ECM D10 mean, and GFS and ECM are synoptic-wise very similar in our region:

ecm>>  gfs>> 

On the ground, not to bad for the SE, the Atlantic stalled to the west as the wedge of heights moves NE across the UK is messy, but mostly dry and temps not bad early doors returning to average later in the run. Could be worse!

[Nick F]

Seems to be a growing consensus from  00z GFS/EC and their ensemble means in holding back a full on return of mobility next week and following weekend, due to trough disruption west of Iberia Weds/Thurs, which the models often struggle with, forcing high pressure/heights to build over NW Europe as upper low closes off near Iberia.

EPS MEAN T+180

Whether this delays an inevitable return to Atlantic mobility or building heights close to the east continues the stalling of upper troughing/low heights pushing in from the west - remains to be seen. Bit too far off in time for the models to resolve with confidence. But a backing away of a full-on Atlantic onslaught return, though there will be some slowing or stalling fronts next week to bring some rain in places.

Interestingly a Pacific wave train and more energy going into the STJ upstream over the U.S over the coming days will also help amplify wave lengths - which may perhaps further help Atlantic trough wave-breaking and in turn reinforce blocking to our NE.

[northwestsnow]

^^

I was just going to say the EC mean is more inclined to push HP in at 144 certainly the opposite of UKMO...

 

[northwestsnow]

EC control follows det in building High pressure next week.

A rare ukmo - ec face off at 144...

I would much prefer ec to be right, we might see even some frost,which has been vacant through the Autumn locally  !!

[northwestsnow]

Longer term the mean does flatten things out but does also pull the Azores high anomaly West....

In that scenario we look to the N Atlantic for a bit of help,or perhaps La Nina ....

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by northwestsnow

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC control follows det in building High pressure next week.

A rare ukmo - ec face off at 144...

I would much prefer ec to be right, we might see even some frost,which has been vacant through the Autumn locally  !!

Yes nw there is so much fluidity on all models that I guess going into december any outcome is possible. We actually had a frost Wednesday

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Yes nw there is so much fluidity on all models that I guess going into december any outcome is possible. We actually had a frost Wednesday

Yup, EC offers 2 to 3 days under the ridge and it would be quite chilly for many, esp at night time.

Ukmo not so, and I would never personally go against ukmo ...

Hopefully ukmo barking up the wrong rain forest . .

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+384... a long way off, but the cold pool still keeps coming back:

    

But the GEFS ens don't appear to be suggesting any specific direction of travel. Yet!

    

    

More runs needed?

[northwestsnow]

GEFS don't seem to be inclined to go for an Atlantic victory , certainly the ones above with op an outlier in pressure terms...

Who knows?

[swfc]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

GFS 00Z at T+384... a long way off, but the cold pool still keeps coming back:

    

But the GEFS ens don't appear to be suggesting any specific direction of travel. Yet!

    

    

More runs needed?

Love a run tbhyes nothing reliable going into december on the output only the uncertainty GC. Still forecasting an uptick in zonal winds but no sign yet tbh

[nick sussex]

Very poor continuity from the ECM which has a totally different NH pattern compared to last nights run and starts going downhill by day 6 . The shape of the troughing to the nw from that point , as in rounded and not sharp, the latter would indicate it was starting to lose eastwards momentum , rounded effectively means it will just barrel too much energy eastwards .

The latest ramblings from it want to start edging the main PV east , whether that gets far enough east to allow some colder air to filter in from the nw time will tell.

The GFS after the ECM dropped its  blocking idea now wants to follow last nights run from that model .

The UKMO didn’t look interested last night in terms of the ECM 12hrs trend and still doesn’t want to know today .

Overall although there’s uncertainty in the models one trend remains , amplification shown at day 6 onwards is struggling to see the light of day.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very poor continuity from the ECM which has a totally different NH pattern compared to last nights run and starts going downhill by day 6 . The shape of the troughing to the nw from that point , as in rounded and not sharp, the latter would indicate it was starting to lose eastwards momentum , rounded effectively means it will just barrel too much energy eastwards .

The latest ramblings from it want to start edging the main PV east , whether that gets far enough east to allow some colder air to filter in from the nw time will tell.

The GFS after the ECM dropped its  blocking idea now wants to follow last nights run from that model .

The UKMO didn’t look interested last night in terms of the ECM 12hrs trend and still doesn’t want to know today .

Overall although there’s uncertainty in the models one trend remains , amplification shown at day 6 onwards is struggling to see the light of day.

 

 

Looks very plausible though as it looks slap bang in kilter with its 240 ENS mean.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z @ 144

For those that want a more settled , drier , colder period of weather later next week , lets hope the ECM 0z for 27th Nov is on to something !

 

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off.

Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

I see your ten years and raise you 50, lol..

Ok, joking apart, this is a point id agree with to an extent. But ive seen these trends before that havnt lead to the suggested solution, i think we only notice this when it goes right and not when its wrong.

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The Atlantic is the winner in the overnight runs with any blocking far to far away to influence these islands. 

Primarily above average temperatures and rainfall for the next three weeks or so.

whilst I agree that mobility remains strong, with a trend to disrupt the trough into s Europe as it crosses nw Europe, I wouldn’t see above av temps as being persistent with at least as many continental drift days as warm sector ones 

Current cross model support on the extended ens for no euro high height anoms and more likely slightly low ones coupled with a mid Atlantic high and possible North Sea/west scandi trough 

the clusters are not compelling for any particular solution (25% winter btw) and I wouldn’t rule out anything for first half December looking at the current hemispheric patterns 

 

[northwestsnow]

Hoping 6z sides with EC and offers a more settled spell of weather next week   ..

[Daniel*]

There must be quite a solid continental cluster with an ens mean like this note anomaly chart the actual heights are a bit further south. It’s good to see fall in pressure in North Africa and Iberia -sorry Tamara!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

whilst I agree that mobility remains strong, with a trend to disrupt the trough into s Europe as it crosses nw Europe, I wouldn’t see above av temps as being persistent with at least as many continental drift days as warm sector ones 

Current cross model support on the extended ens for no euro high height anoms and more likely slightly low ones coupled with a mid Atlantic high and possible North Sea/west scandi trough 

the clusters are not compelling for any particular solution (25% winter btw) and I wouldn’t rule out anything for first half December looking at the current hemispheric patterns 

 

Nina esq?