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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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A fresh model thread as we close in on the start of winter, not that you'd know it with the weather being so mild right now. As ever, please keep it friendly and model related in here. For more general winter related chat, please head over to the upcoming winter discussion:

If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

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NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

So, it's been two long hours' since the first/last post... and, by gad, was it worth the wait! GFS 06Z at T+384:😬

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The perfect chart, for sitting down and enjoying some Hot Chocolate... Every One's Winner, eh?😱

 

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I suspect your mad in the napper GC but arnt we all 👀yes the same and continuing heights pulling up mild air and dankness. Could be worse, "not a lot" but worse. 😏😏Going forward it seems zonal winds are forecast to pick up so I guess it's "so you win again PV" 😅

Edited by swfc
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1 hour ago, swfc said:

I suspect your mad in the napper GC but arnt we all 👀yes the same and continuing heights pulling up mild air and dankness. Could be worse, "not a lot" but worse. 😏😏Going forward it seems zonal winds are forecast to pick up so I guess it's "so you win again PV" 😅

Well, should charts like that carry on for much longer, I'll be 🦇💩 crazy!

Edited by General Cluster
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Just had a look 👀 at the GEFS 6z and the good news 😌 is there is still some support from the mean for high pressure to build in during the second half / last third of November settling things down with potential for fog / frost!😜

81E9BD7D-C0ED-4502-AB28-A7E30D23B2AE.thumb.jpeg.b9dad4d104476828b2c0884dfe79cc5b.jpegA3969E70-72FE-4DC2-9557-CA7B5B128EE1.thumb.jpeg.edf21e47fa70cf1680cb74bb823af54c.jpeg688E1382-5636-4877-A06E-BB8276CF1AF9.thumb.jpeg.058c569817134dcf94cb0a4a5211e8c4.jpegA3E66318-FAEA-498B-8431-C0367F0A5615.thumb.jpeg.a2c9cadd48ceba3f9e67773131a246ba.jpeg568EE01B-7F60-4A67-BDBA-22466B93E7FF.thumb.jpeg.88ba63ebe5b82c1b556daa0a6fc69071.jpeg185BDBC9-CFE1-4ABE-A4C2-4D0589E29BCD.thumb.jpeg.45bd17091e138cae492a36da3c45723d.jpegED7AD32A-CD18-4621-8CEA-FA11E84DD933.thumb.jpeg.c6d3b3f669fa80196ec9c4dd54dceb42.jpeg

 

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image.thumb.png.87620d9ae39b1c67138320d391d6254f.png

Even at day 6 there is massive spread in the ensembles - worst case 1010mb, best case 1030mb. Longer term prospects all depending on if the high can build in next week. If it does then colder chances could follow. If it doesn't then i think we will collapse into a +NAO regime. A bit of a crunch point coming up.

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Polar vortex looks like it will be settling down in Greenland for the next while. When it’s there, it’s quite difficult to get sustained wintry weather, as we all know!

6D9117E8-53FC-4C99-9590-8239C0EBE22B.jpeg

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Until there is some deep entrenched cold over Scandanavia & Europe then I don't hold any hope for any proper wintery conditions getting established.

We need a sub-zero Continent - when they're at +5 to + 10c then forget it, the best we can hope for is a bit of mountain snow here and there which doesn't enthuse me much being based in the South East 😞

Anyway, there's still a long way to go this winter so fingers crossed.

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16 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

To drop dead, with shock; or, to roll on the floor laughing? That is the question!😁

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

To bin or not to bin? 😅

Some models are showing some ridging of the Azores High at around the T210 mark. Ideally, we would need that HP to back out to the west a bit for any chances of something cold. If it does, then we may see some charts like what this evenings GEM is currently showing. Way out into FI of course, so it's best to take these charts with a pinch of salt. 

gem-0-210.thumb.png.a5f3949fbfc160ba118612e6d6f952ea.png   gem-1-234.thumb.png.b894fbf0aea21919913595babf9251ae.png

The GEM is the only model I have seen so far that goes for this scenario. The last couple of frames show another cold shot too as that HP stalls in the Atlantic and to the south of Iceland. The wait for cold continues...

Edited by Zak M
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I think given the various forecasts for a "front loaded, mid winter and back loaded winter" the hokey cokey would be more in line GC🤔🤔still not a bad looking chart for late November I guess 😏

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The UKMO day 6 chart is not without interest.  Limited support from other NWP - let’s see what the ECM shows later...

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28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d be happy with that going into December. If it’s good enough for the Metoffice its good enough for me 🤞

0A2E73A9-DC6F-4D68-8A50-7BD9E07E6955.png

That’s a decent chart. Any time the main lobe of the PV is away from Greenland and Arctic Canada it’s always better for us!

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

GEFS mean day 11 🤮

gensnh-31-1-264.png

Not great is it jules 😏😏😏maybe the next 7 days may improve the outlook altho the up tick on the zonal winds would suggest not 

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spacer.png GEM 12z Jet Stream for 21st Nov

 

GEM 12 z at 240hrs  suggests that the Jet Stream dives South.  That would bring some rather cold air to our shores. Will be interesting to see the ECM day 10 chart shortly to see if it shows something similar

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not great is it jules 😏😏😏maybe the next 7 days may improve the outlook altho the up tick on the zonal winds would suggest not 

In other words... it's sheet!💩

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30 minutes ago, jules216 said:

GEFS mean day 11 🤮

gensnh-31-1-264.png

And the gfs charts always verify EXACTLY as shown at that range,🤣,every single time.

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31 minutes ago, jules216 said:

GEFS mean day 11 🤮

Ukmo and ec at 144vhours are a good match altho I suspect the PV to the far nw will flatten things out 

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29 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not great is it jules 😏😏😏maybe the next 7 days may improve the outlook altho the up tick on the zonal winds would suggest not 

Rarely you find this crap so early in season.Hope its wrong.Its more akin to anomaly of those horible januaries of 1989,2014 or 2020 but not November jaysus way to early to see such +AO

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