Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[Mr Frost]

9 hours ago, AFC Snow said:

Love your detailed analysis. Do you have charts for Wednesday night and Thursday morning?

I think for all you ladies and gents in the NE the window for wintry showers/snowfall will be Wednesday evening through to Thursday lunchtime - Thursday AM holds the most promise.

Nothing significant or too exciting on low ground but it’s just nice to see a bit of wintry precipitation on Christmas Eve! 

As ever all these charts below are subject to change/timing at this range. 

Few precipitation type snapshots below:

23/12: 18:00

 

24/12: 03:00

 

06:00

 

12:00

 

Even @Mair Snaw could see a bit of wet snow falling or a temporary dusting! 

Looking further ahead into Christmas Day it’s a wet evening for a few of us! 

25/12: 18:00

 

Boxing Day as discussed previously - more widespread soaking and windy as well. 

26/12: 09:00

 

Few hours later we have our next batch of cold air moving in from the NW.

26/12: 15:00

850HPA and Sea level pressure chart:

 

15:00

500-1000HPA thickness (dam)

 

Interesting period of model/chart viewing - much better than the dross that was served up last Winter! 

Hopefully we all get a proper cold/snowy spell this Winter - it’s long overdue. 
 

Great outlook for the mountains:

Home Page

MWIS.ORG.UK

Planning Outlook

Temporarily westerly gales and rain will extend south across Scotland Christmas Day and to all areas Boxing Day. Otherwise, there is now high likelihood that until into January cold weather will predominate: the mountains substantially below freezing point; frost frequently lower areas, and as wind direction varies, most mountain areas will attain at least some snow cover, with some areas having significant accumulation.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Benvironment]

FINALLY AN ICY WINDSCREEN!!!

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

A bright one it is too. Currently 3c with an overnight low of 2.7c. It looks essentially dry and bright here for the next few days which is good news.

[Sceptical]

Perfect hill walking conditions this morning, sunny and 3C but feeling a bit colder thanks to a brisk wind higher up. 

Local hills looking west.

 

[blitzen]

Howdy!

Lovely morning here too as frost slowly lifts.   Dead flat calm and a temperature of 3c.

 

[Sceptical]

Lecht Ski centre pisting before the snow starts. Could be decent snowfall up there if the forecast holds.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS P - some run that is   I just love seeing the lower pressure to the sw or south like that you can see clearly how that helps stop the pattern from falling apart easily, never guarantees when it comes to the weather but I’ve got a great feeling that we are going to see blocked charts of all varieties continuing to increase in the outputs as we go over the next few weeks, some will toy around with a quick response to the warming strat and others will be without that even factoring in so it’s pretty rare ground we are on. I’m looking at it as we are fishing and catching good amount of decent sized fish we know there is a true monster lurking somewhere and like fishing - patience is key, will we see that big one heading our way?! we wait with much excitement to find out

[Puffy MacCloud]

A wet morning has cleared to a nice hazy / sunny afternoon although it's remained cold all day. Anyone would think this was winter or something.

Temperature 3.6deg.C down from a max of 6.7deg.C at 12:46 and up from a min of 1.1deg.C at midnight, humidity is 94%, dead calm now but a max gust of 7mph at 02:28, pressure 1013.2hPa steady, there's been 1.6mm of rain today and the dew point is 3deg.C.

[Sceptical]

Nice update from the Met Office:

 

[Mr Frost]

27 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Nice update from the Met Office:

 

Set that alarm early on Christmas Eve mate! 

03:00

 

06:00

 

Risk of some prolonged snowfall/heavy snow showers above! 

There is also a wee risk appearing now further South - might end up out in the North Sea/Eastern England or vanish all together! 

08:00

 

As ever subject to change at this range - best thing to do as we all know is radar watching/looking out the window when the day arrives! 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I’m sorry guys but are we getting excited about snow in Aviemore and Braemar? Forgive me being such a grinch but I mean that’s something that should happen numerous times per winter, no? Shows how bad it’s getting nowadays.

[Mr Frost]

1 minute ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I’m sorry guys but are we getting excited about snow in Aviemore and Braemar? Forgive me being such a grinch but I mean that’s something that should happen numerous times per winter, no? Shows how bad it’s getting nowadays.

Yes - we have members who live in places that are forecast snowfall on Christmas Eve! I am excited for them. 

Also I just browsed the USA & Canada thread and that jammy git @CatchMyDrift has just had a fall of over 40 centimetres! Lovely pictures mate. 

I am sure our time will come @Glaswegianblizzard for similar amounts - within the next fifty Winters at least! 

[NorthernRab]

6 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I’m sorry guys but are we getting excited about snow in Aviemore and Braemar? Forgive me being such a grinch but I mean that’s something that should happen numerous times per winter, no? Shows how bad it’s getting nowadays.

I think it's more that this kind of set up can deliver a lot in the way of surprises. Slack flow, low(ish) uppers, heavy precipitation, someone will get a surprise. 

[Sanserit]

Beautiful day on Deeside today after a chilly start - currently 0.5c down from a high of 4.2 at 5am.

Not left the house today following a fall last night which resulted in a dislocated shoulder and a trip to A&E to get it fixed. Thank goodness my kids are both home for Christmas and can do the cooking for me.

[Sceptical]

2 minutes ago, Sanserit said:

Beautiful day on Deeside today after a chilly start - currently 0.5c down from a high of 4.2 at 5am.

Not left the house today following a fall last night which resulted in a dislocated shoulder and a trip to A&E to get it fixed. Thank goodness my kids are both home for Christmas and can do the cooking for me.

Every cloud....

Anyway, speedy recovery!

[Mr Frost]

 

Quote

I am sure our time will come @Glaswegianblizzard for similar amounts - within the next fifty Winters at least! 

Just looking further ahead keep an eye on the 27th. 
Could be our time to shine!  @Ross B @Stormeh  and many others in here.

27/12: 09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

Some predicted snow parameters for 15:00 on that day.

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure:

 

500-1000HPA Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (c)

The above charts are all still five days away - long time for it to vanish or go ti*ts up in that space of time! 

Risk is certainly there from looking across the big models/charts for that timeframe - all we need to do now is count it down into a reliable timeframe...when has that ever gone wrong before!? 

All the best to you all! 

Edit: @LomondSnowstorm I see you are about currently - do you have any thoughts on this/remainder of the year? Could be some big marginal events? I’m now suffering model fatigue. 

@Kirkcaldy Weather Nothing that exciting currently mate - coastal areas for sure browsing that day. 

 

No doubt though you would see some thunder sleet/snow as Kirkcaldy is the capital of supercell thunderstorms and thunder snow nowadays! 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Just looking further ahead keep an eye on the 27th. 
Could be our time to shine!  @Ross B @Stormeh  and many others in here.

27/12: 09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

Some predicted snow parameters for 15:00 on that day.

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure:

 

500-1000HPA Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (c)

The above charts are all still five days away - long time for it to vanish or go ti*ts up in that space of time! 

Risk is certainly there from looking across the big models/charts for that timeframe - all we need to do now is count it down into a reliable timeframe...when has that ever gone wrong before!? 

All the best to you all! 

Do they have CAPE / MUCAPE charts? if so I suspect could be a fair bit around the wrf eu has shown some on its recent runs. Probably everything on the menu hail, thunder, sleet , snow a weather lovers dream

[LomondSnowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Just looking further ahead keep an eye on the 27th. 
Could be our time to shine!  @Ross B @Stormeh  and many others in here.

27/12: 09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

Some predicted snow parameters for 15:00 on that day.

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure:

 

500-1000HPA Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (c)

The above charts are all still five days away - long time for it to vanish or go ti*ts up in that space of time! 

Risk is certainly there from looking across the big models/charts for that timeframe - all we need to do now is count it down into a reliable timeframe...when has that ever gone wrong before!? 

All the best to you all! 

I have to say - I'm allowing myself to get a little excited about the output (unfortunately I've been busy with various non-weather chart related stuff over the last couple of days so haven't had time to put my thoughts together). 

 

There's a level of consistency to the output, although obviously I still worry about a low popping out of Newfoundland and nuking the Greenland high before it gets sorted. Probably need to wait at least 24 hours to rule that out entirely (although again, no basis for that other than experience of previous snowfalls gone wrong). 

I would say that the 850hPas aren't a great guide with slack low pressure setups - the surface pressure is a good 50-60hPa lower than your average easterly and you're not looking at the same levels of modification from the surface wind as normal. Most of the soundings I've seen, aside from the odd warm sector around the 28th or so, show the temperature sitting at or just below 0C at the upper levels, with the dewpoints generally below (that's for Edinburgh Airport for example, so nearer the coast it may be higher be equally the GFS sometimes overeggs the extent to which dewpoints increase at the coast). 

I've also noticed Christmas Eve has a little potential, at least in the sense the cold is very much there, everything north of the Grampians should see some snow and further south has a fighting chance of at least a flurry in the early hours...

I'll try to post something more comprehensive tonight or tomorrow.

[Hawesy]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:.

I am sure our time will come @Glaswegianblizzard for similar amounts - within the next fifty Winters at least! 

I may need a few more than fifty winters to amass 40cm of snow here! 

Nice to see a wee pre-Christmas buzz on the thread. It doesn’t hurt that we have some interesting synoptics that offer some hope of wintry action in the next week or so for at least some of us! 

Another fine day in NE Fife with some winter sunshine! 

PS who is @CatchMyDrift?  Only joking, delighted for you! 

The following website pulls together some nice Canadian weather cams (scroll down):

https://www.aweathermoment.com/robs-obs/robsobs/ywgcams.htm

[CameronWS]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Just looking further ahead keep an eye on the 27th. 
Could be our time to shine!  @Ross B @Stormeh  and many others in here.

27/12: 09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

Some predicted snow parameters for 15:00 on that day.

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure:

 

500-1000HPA Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (c)

The above charts are all still five days away - long time for it to vanish or go ti*ts up in that space of time! 

Risk is certainly there from looking across the big models/charts for that timeframe - all we need to do now is count it down into a reliable timeframe...when has that ever gone wrong before!? 

All the best to you all! 

Edit: @LomondSnowstorm I see you are about currently - do you have any thoughts on this/remainder of the year? Could be some big marginal events? I’m now suffering model fatigue. 

@Kirkcaldy Weather Nothing that exciting currently mate - coastal areas for sure browsing that day. 

 

No doubt though you would see some thunder sleet/snow as Kirkcaldy is the capital of supercell thunderstorms and thunder snow nowadays! 

What do you think the Snow level, in terms of metres asl, would be around your area if all these factors were as show here?

[LomondSnowstorm]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I will get lynched for saying this but the 30-40cm estimate was 2 hours ago...and it's still snowing. This is very unusual for Calgary, so I have been very lucky to see it. We were meant to fly back to Scotland for 2 weeks leaving this morning. The universe had other plans

Wooft! Very lucky - enjoy it! Glad to see so many familiar faces (I guess avatars/usernames really ) on here - hard to believe we've been on here for over a decade now!

Something I've just noticed - (for future reference and I'll keep it separately in this post) - the netweather skew-ts appear to have the surface pressure basically constant, at around 1000hPa (or possibly standard pressure adjusted for altitude), which I think gives a distorted picture (either way really- too cold in high pressure setups and too warm in low). I may be wrong on this but there's a clear discrepancy between these and the weatheronline values for the same locations. So I will use the latter for the soundings, although reluctantly because the netweather charts are really exceptional and the UKV being available is a gamechanger for snow forecasting.

[snowy owl]

So glad to be back and observing the charts after a rollercoaster year of illness, now finally better ! Perfect timing to be back enjoying the fantastic charts on offer !! 
 

Best wishes everyone and hope you are all well . So looking forward to hearing all your insights and sharing some laughs. 

[Northernlights]

Fine day after a cool start at 3c with a ground frost which persisted all day in very sheltered spots. Maximum temperature of

5c .Quite surprised to see white frost on some grass out of the sun in the afternoon.Very little wind made it feel warmer than it was in the sunshine.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

There's a whole lotta something lined up,the short range models will be the go to shortly but north sea in full flow 

I think @Mair Snaw would be pleased if the 18z gets anywhere close to being reality again similar to the gfs p I posted, what a run  

Edited December 22, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[JamesM]

A much more pleasant day today. A rare early morning start in the car and it was frozen. Much of the day then had clear skies and even some sun which was a big change from the permanent greyness we’ve been enduring. Did get a spot of drizzle late afternoon but that cleared to a moon lit evening. No wind but feeling colder. Ended up sitting in the garden with the neighbours this evening for drinks. Never thought I would be doing that in December!