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Monthly mean CET - Garbage Facts


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I thought I'd start a thread for any observations about monthly mean CETs that in themselves mean nothing at all except for the way I manage to drag out some absurd predictions based around them! 🙂

I'm using the phrase "significant warm (or cold) month" here to identify a month that registered in the top 10% of the warmest (or coldest) for the month in question (going back 361 years)

The only significant warm month in the year 2020 between and including May and September was August.  This has only happened 12 times in history, and it's the first time it has ever happened two years in succession.

None of the following Octobers are significant warm  or cold months and their average is around 9.75C -  a tad chilly for present times but almost bang on the 361 year mean for the month.

8 of the 12 instances have happened within the last 140 years. None of the Novembers or Decembers in those 140 years have been significant  cold months. Two Novembers have been significant warm months but, overall, the average CETs of such Novembers and Decembers are again close to their average CETs for the 361 years, maybe a little warmer.

Given that I am quite happy with my guess of 9.9C for OCtober in the competition.... if it looks like being anything close I'll probably pitch November at 6.8C and December around 4.9C

My conclusions are that I don't really thing this side of the year offers much in the way of prolonged cold spells, more like fleeting cold snaps.

And I think March 2021 will be a little on the chilly side! 😁

 

 

 

 

 

 

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