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Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21


BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    With the refreeze well underway, it appears it's time for a new thread.

    Here's the daily images and animation to kick things off

    Final9_21min9_22.thumb.jpg.2613604a70afad836a5b110f52915fee.jpg FinalConc9_22A.thumb.jpg.a45b0c32ad8832e761beb90c9117c797.jpg FinalConc9_22B.thumb.jpg.85384bec8b9dec5fd827526bb78d671e.jpg

    Animation9_22Small.thumb.gif.0c3508555fd7fe5cc56c28e0e606642e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest images for today, as we see the Beaufort tail reform into the Beaufort loop once more.
    A larger version of the animation is on my twitter page

    Final9_22min9_23.thumb.jpg.373b8ac20087160b6eff6b40aef5e81a.jpg FinalConc9_23A.thumb.jpg.b04a29b899d7804207567584d8b6e0a0.jpg FinalConc9_23B.thumb.jpg.7d51943d21477d6ec9fe261a5b0280c8.jpg

    Animation9_23Small.thumb.gif.e1a2c8008921da582e2e9597e1a4c75d.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Update for today.

    Final9_23min9_24.thumb.jpg.74d97d9d8e55df88c0625dfca98744a3.jpg FinalConc9_24A.thumb.jpg.d6f433c2b8edff702c1200b18e137f86.jpg FinalConc9_24B.thumb.jpg.343beffa3093e77d5e662449e1a86ac2.jpg

    Animation9_25Small.thumb.gif.b95e08ae4b6cf4dbe7b65005fb3c7022.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Update for today, massive growth around the Beaufort/Chukchi region. Extent almost on par with 2007 now.

    Final9_24min9_25.thumb.jpg.b1c189bf2097afbef85f7b8023ba8aa5.jpg FinalConc9_25A.thumb.jpg.91021cfff1fb5c6733289495ebd64a12.jpg FinalConc9_25B.thumb.jpg.167ccb857b58a473386f74eb75ec5b4e.jpg

    Animation9_25Small.thumb.gif.f556ed9175a28ef884052b30a6f165e5.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    A pretty neutral day yesterday. Growth on the Pacific side has stopped, and the ice edge continues to retreat across large parts.

    Final9_25min9_26.thumb.jpg.7de099f14030d16929f2be29418462e4.jpg FinalConc9_26A.thumb.jpg.f546cc0d4083ddbeacfccddc90fd42b6.jpg FinalConc9_26B.thumb.jpg.552d3dc056e61ed4c6a25f46595179f5.jpg

    Animation9_26Small.thumb.gif.9554e9b3a833dbd8796c2a0ef6d76360.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Today's images and animation. 
    Some big losses around the Chukchi region the last 2 days with southerlies dominating here. This looks likely to continue for the coming week, so definitely an area worth watching.
    Final9_26min9_27.thumb.jpg.5296148a0297cd9a7634dd2d5cce71e9.jpg FinalConc9_27A.thumb.jpg.e632792b12b63a8611d043f6f29507b2.jpg FinalConc9_27B.thumb.jpg.c99b6aa4686d2312a4311d834c3ec2db.jpg

    Animation9_27Small.thumb.gif.533d17e79afd4f6680f328919f4134ec.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Today's update. Another slow one for sea ice growth.

    Final9_27min9_28.thumb.jpg.a4332c2f6835ab2d4403c1a9f520dee6.jpg FinalConc9_28A.thumb.jpg.d4f2537a20ecef91061a8809ce821f9e.jpg FinalConc9_28B.thumb.jpg.e7e8279bf736d8265202a53fb0062797.jpg

    Animation9_28small.thumb.gif.bd34a9b0bd7dcdc04016e936cfbbbadb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Images and animation for today.

    Final9_28min9_29.thumb.jpg.a31480f9c5fece17b37aa60a8e7fce4a.jpg FinalConc9_29A.thumb.jpg.f034688cb2ea3bbc50c30f47782f3778.jpg FinalConc9_29B.thumb.jpg.b1e033fa22480623ee2c7d781796597b.jpg

    Animation9_29Small.thumb.gif.0ea7d5dec0c88d0d1db7915bff032aa9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Another day of minor changes, with the Chukchi bite continuing to grow

    Final9_29min9_30.thumb.jpg.e15f95efc35303c4e36054103dd66d9c.jpg FinalConc9_30A.thumb.jpg.c090dce7de48d8e61ec1c6f3b3dbb1f6.jpg FinalConc9_30B.thumb.jpg.ac617e287b4cf827fea74438580e8bcf.jpg

    Animation9_30Small.thumb.gif.e793577183ec2f6470ac2ed75b5e5734.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Refreeze as expected is slow, siberian side struggling to grow and is Infact is losing extent in parts. I stand by my prediction the Laptev may not freeze until the start of December because you need an arm of ice forming in the ESS to block any pacific flow of water and one arm blocking the Atlantic inflow and then all the ice in the middle to freeze over and we are a long long way off from that happening. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Update for today. Looks like little change or even a slight loss to me, though there's been a small gain on JAXA/ADS.

    Final9_30min10_1.thumb.jpg.de9a6bab12780d5818b6f75c009903ff.jpg FinalConc10_1A.thumb.jpg.36af99be2534f9aaa46fe8335e5f1096.jpg FinalConc10_1B.thumb.jpg.f777139e454ce2c228810a9557c98401.jpg

    AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.cc0bb20974dcd21b9667d941c86b2db0.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Update for today. The Chukchi bit has seen a filling in, but we'll have to wait and see if its real or not.

    Final10_1min10_2.thumb.jpg.d8df23bc140bd93080b3885e96de4ab1.jpg FinalConc10_2A.thumb.jpg.7fad94371709c4e1c250079fc6a87c83.jpg FinalConc10_2B.thumb.jpg.f5d1a7a70c37ff35d3f864a39d0ec545.jpg

    Animation10_2Small.thumb.gif.d3e299a920ffc041f799f04db0b5c85d.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Today's batch. Still no large gains...

    Final10_2min10_3.thumb.jpg.9709c22c8d5f52125f48f4aa1d8fa1e7.jpg FinalConc10_3A.thumb.jpg.795a0ce102a19d2a5917f8717681a783.jpg FinalConc10_3B.thumb.jpg.0d293153bad569317e310601d009736c.jpg

    Animation10_3Small.thumb.gif.047c3cd73183aac6686162a6e5f40507.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest updates, plus some bonus volume data. 
    Volume minimum was 2nd lowest on record, and just 27% of the 1980s average minimum. It's still 2nd lowest up to the end of September

    Final10_3min10_4.thumb.jpg.4176308bd05c2bfd3554eb436c8c961c.jpg FinalConc10_4A.thumb.jpg.0e90e5a41244a6d6e35dbb00cc0f8544.jpg FinalConc10_4B.thumb.jpg.857aae2eebf33a2291241f956335ea0c.jpg Animation10_4Small.thumb.gif.07d4edd82aaba474db5a74a48e34c581.gif

    EndSeptLast30.thumb.png.09aa0a305592631516b27ddfd0fac8c3.pngEndSeptLastAll.thumb.png.e437ca298708daa63ddb884ca238aefa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Here are the images for today.
    I'm going to start updating these roughly twice per week from now on.

    Final10_4min10_5.thumb.jpg.e81c45a8d382f9df0afdf38637f679e7.jpg FinalConc10_5A.thumb.jpg.f7e43b2bf01c022590f084692a94ae38.jpg FinalConc10_5B.thumb.jpg.4c00e3501112a8085478aa3804812594.jpg

    Animation10_5Small.thumb.gif.e3d1b27c0406e6dd389af323ec763573.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    So so slow, recent trends is for refreeze to start slowly as there is so much heat in the oceans. The weather is playing some part also with compacting winds but its going to be such a struggle for the Siberian basin to refreeze much anytime soon. Looks near certain we will be at record low values soon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    19 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    So so slow, recent trends is for refreeze to start slowly as there is so much heat in the oceans. The weather is playing some part also with compacting winds but its going to be such a struggle for the Siberian basin to refreeze much anytime soon. Looks near certain we will be at record low values soon. 

    This can also been seen on the model output with the 2M temperature remaining above 0C in this area:

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH12_72_5.png

    There isn't much cold around at 850hPa though even up to mid-month, so it could be a long hard slog before this area ices over.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    12 hours ago, reef said:

    This can also been seen on the model output with the 2M temperature remaining above 0C in this area:

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH12_72_5.png

    There isn't much cold around at 850hPa though even up to mid-month, so it could be a long hard slog before this area ices over.

    Still predicting the Laptev won't freeze over until the end of November which will be 4 weeks behind every other year. 

    Another low increase today and with the weather suggesting a  deep low with winds coming in from warm waters then it's hard too see too much in the way of increases with the exception of the Atlantic front and perhaps the Beaufort but the uppers are really poor for the time of year so it's desperate stuff really 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no growth over the next week. Should it come off, record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon.

    Below is a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS forecast for 8th to 14th.

    AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.7f3f02ac7f64172c7d2a79caddef0abb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    What's that forecast based on BFTV? I do feel ice increases are going to be slow mind aand if anything, the forecast of the Arctic weak vortex about to split with a Pacific ridge means we are likely to head into uncharted territory. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
    22 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    What's that forecast based on BFTV? I do feel ice increases are going to be slow mind aand if anything, the forecast of the Arctic weak vortex about to split with a Pacific ridge means we are likely to head into uncharted territory. 

    You can access the sea ice and loads of other forecast data here: 

    unfurl-image2.jpg
    CMEMS.LOBELIA.EARTH

    Copernicus Marine Service

    It's all available to download too. The forecasts use the ECM.

    Laptev and ESS are already well into record territory, but the gap to 2012 looks certain to grow over the coming week.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    As a result of all the warmth over the pole from the last week or so arctic sea ice has been pretty static relative to the normal growth curve-

    Infact we are in very close danger of challenging the lowest October ice cover on record.

    2012 was was 310KM2 lower than 2020 a week ago, today just 65KM2.

    Another few days or sub 50K growth & we will indeed be in new territory.

    Siberian seas still at zero...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Animation from the last 5 days. Slow progress. Area is likely to drop below 2012 today, with extent doing similarly in the next few days.

    Animation10_9Small.thumb.gif.951f5c8c22ff62cb4cb13c340fce39dd.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Area has now dropped below 2012, to lowest on record. Extent is just 63k above 2012.
    The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!

    NSIDC_ChangeOct9.thumb.jpg.b634f1160a88932921dce518e1951580.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Area has now dropped below 2012, to lowest on record. Extent is just 63k above 2012.
    The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!

    NSIDC_ChangeOct9.thumb.jpg.b634f1160a88932921dce518e1951580.jpg

    Acceleration or tipping point.....either way climate stress and distress is going to lock in extremes.

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