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Today's images and animation. 
Some big losses around the Chukchi region the last 2 days with southerlies dominating here. This looks likely to continue for the coming week, so definitely an area worth watching.
Final9_26min9_27.thumb.jpg.5296148a0297cd9a7634dd2d5cce71e9.jpg FinalConc9_27A.thumb.jpg.e632792b12b63a8611d043f6f29507b2.jpg FinalConc9_27B.thumb.jpg.c99b6aa4686d2312a4311d834c3ec2db.jpg

Animation9_27Small.thumb.gif.533d17e79afd4f6680f328919f4134ec.gif

 

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Refreeze as expected is slow, siberian side struggling to grow and is Infact is losing extent in parts. I stand by my prediction the Laptev may not freeze until the start of December because you need an arm of ice forming in the ESS to block any pacific flow of water and one arm blocking the Atlantic inflow and then all the ice in the middle to freeze over and we are a long long way off from that happening. 

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So so slow, recent trends is for refreeze to start slowly as there is so much heat in the oceans. The weather is playing some part also with compacting winds but its going to be such a struggle for the Siberian basin to refreeze much anytime soon. Looks near certain we will be at record low values soon. 

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19 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

So so slow, recent trends is for refreeze to start slowly as there is so much heat in the oceans. The weather is playing some part also with compacting winds but its going to be such a struggle for the Siberian basin to refreeze much anytime soon. Looks near certain we will be at record low values soon. 

This can also been seen on the model output with the 2M temperature remaining above 0C in this area:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH12_72_5.png

There isn't much cold around at 850hPa though even up to mid-month, so it could be a long hard slog before this area ices over.

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12 hours ago, reef said:

This can also been seen on the model output with the 2M temperature remaining above 0C in this area:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH12_72_5.png

There isn't much cold around at 850hPa though even up to mid-month, so it could be a long hard slog before this area ices over.

Still predicting the Laptev won't freeze over until the end of November which will be 4 weeks behind every other year. 

Another low increase today and with the weather suggesting a  deep low with winds coming in from warm waters then it's hard too see too much in the way of increases with the exception of the Atlantic front and perhaps the Beaufort but the uppers are really poor for the time of year so it's desperate stuff really 

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CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no growth over the next week. Should it come off, record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon.

Below is a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS forecast for 8th to 14th.

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.7f3f02ac7f64172c7d2a79caddef0abb.gif

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What's that forecast based on BFTV? I do feel ice increases are going to be slow mind aand if anything, the forecast of the Arctic weak vortex about to split with a Pacific ridge means we are likely to head into uncharted territory. 

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22 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

What's that forecast based on BFTV? I do feel ice increases are going to be slow mind aand if anything, the forecast of the Arctic weak vortex about to split with a Pacific ridge means we are likely to head into uncharted territory. 

You can access the sea ice and loads of other forecast data here: 

unfurl-image2.jpg
CMEMS.LOBELIA.EARTH

Copernicus Marine Service

It's all available to download too. The forecasts use the ECM.

Laptev and ESS are already well into record territory, but the gap to 2012 looks certain to grow over the coming week.

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As a result of all the warmth over the pole from the last week or so arctic sea ice has been pretty static relative to the normal growth curve-

Infact we are in very close danger of challenging the lowest October ice cover on record.

2012 was was 310KM2 lower than 2020 a week ago, today just 65KM2.

Another few days or sub 50K growth & we will indeed be in new territory.

Siberian seas still at zero...

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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Area has now dropped below 2012, to lowest on record. Extent is just 63k above 2012.
The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!

NSIDC_ChangeOct9.thumb.jpg.b634f1160a88932921dce518e1951580.jpg

Acceleration or tipping point.....either way climate stress and distress is going to lock in extremes.

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