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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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40 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Cold, Calm and bright please. I think I just hate wind and rain.

Looking at the latest ECM...shows nothing other than low pressure over or near the country. So that spells rain, rain, rain and some windy spells - welcome to the glum season!

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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Getting less optimistic for a cold winter now with how the CFS ENSO forecast has altered over the last few weeks

NINO 1+2 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.803b8b43771888395f99c22c382cbc9b.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb519c88a7596365c85a8059edb5ff5.pngimage.thumb.png.f21660bf8a9ed37cbdb09dff81b1941d.png          

If you want an EP La Nina which helps with getting us a colder winter then the above forecast makes for grim reading as this region is expected to warm up somewhat over the winter but will remain in La Nina territory

NINO 3.4 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.98f8f7dff52e699da4317a00c60630c5.pngimage.thumb.png.ff93f1cd009f9c4e865945ece9ecafdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c9766bb51d7a57bd755f8e78f03d6b07.png    

The above charts make for grim reading for a colder winter. The first 2 have us at moderate La Nina at the peak of the event, maybe a small chance of a strong event and at this point I still had hope. However the very latest update shows a strong La Nina event is becoming more likely with the peak at almost -2C below average

Maybe all of the seasonal models are picking up on the increasing chances of a strong La Nina event taking place and this maybe explains why they all look so grim for cold weather chances.

The only positive I can see us getting from a strong La Nina is that it may help to get rid of all that warmer water in the N Pacific ready for winter 2021/22 which if the QBO plays out properly could be an EQBO winter

image.png

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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Getting less optimistic for a cold winter now with how the CFS ENSO forecast has altered over the last few weeks

NINO 1+2 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.803b8b43771888395f99c22c382cbc9b.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb519c88a7596365c85a8059edb5ff5.pngimage.thumb.png.f21660bf8a9ed37cbdb09dff81b1941d.png          

If you want an EP La Nina which helps with getting us a colder winter then the above forecast makes for grim reading as this region is expected to warm up somewhat over the winter but will remain in La Nina territory

NINO 3.4 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.98f8f7dff52e699da4317a00c60630c5.pngimage.thumb.png.ff93f1cd009f9c4e865945ece9ecafdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c9766bb51d7a57bd755f8e78f03d6b07.png    

The above charts make for grim reading for a colder winter. The first 2 have us at moderate La Nina at the peak of the event, maybe a small chance of a strong event and at this point I still had hope. However the very latest update shows a strong La Nina event is becoming more likely with the peak at almost -2C below average

Maybe all of the seasonal models are picking up on the increasing chances of a strong La Nina event taking place and this maybe explains why they all look so grim for cold weather chances.

The only positive I can see us getting from a strong La Nina is that it may help to get rid of all that warmer water in the N Pacific ready for winter 2021/22 which if the QBO plays out properly could be an EQBO winter

image.png

Bump!  That's a grim reading and knowing our luck, something will scupper the chances of a cold 2021/22 winter, too!  November, the best month for wintry weather this year?  Like you say, perhaps this is why the long range models are looking grim at this early stage!  Hoping for a turnaround!

Edited by Don
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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Getting less optimistic for a cold winter now with how the CFS ENSO forecast has altered over the last few weeks

NINO 1+2 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.803b8b43771888395f99c22c382cbc9b.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb519c88a7596365c85a8059edb5ff5.pngimage.thumb.png.f21660bf8a9ed37cbdb09dff81b1941d.png          

If you want an EP La Nina which helps with getting us a colder winter then the above forecast makes for grim reading as this region is expected to warm up somewhat over the winter but will remain in La Nina territory

NINO 3.4 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.98f8f7dff52e699da4317a00c60630c5.pngimage.thumb.png.ff93f1cd009f9c4e865945ece9ecafdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c9766bb51d7a57bd755f8e78f03d6b07.png    

The above charts make for grim reading for a colder winter. The first 2 have us at moderate La Nina at the peak of the event, maybe a small chance of a strong event and at this point I still had hope. However the very latest update shows a strong La Nina event is becoming more likely with the peak at almost -2C below average

Maybe all of the seasonal models are picking up on the increasing chances of a strong La Nina event taking place and this maybe explains why they all look so grim for cold weather chances.

The only positive I can see us getting from a strong La Nina is that it may help to get rid of all that warmer water in the N Pacific ready for winter 2021/22 which if the QBO plays out properly could be an EQBO winter

image.png

No panic yet. MetO for 3.4 is the most bullish for Nina tendency (other areas less negative) but there is quite wide scatter here still. And not many members here getting to -2....

image.thumb.png.dde637787fd7fb71b7599b297f9fe442.png

Edited by Catacol
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@SqueakheartLW @Catacol 

I suppose we can't discount a more aggressive cooling of 3.4 region and further warming of 1.2. Having a look at ONI where threshold for strong Nina is around -1.5 trimonthly value I hardly see any historical occasion where we went from JJA -0.4 like 2020 to a strong Nina. Only other year I could find with being similar to some borderline moderates/strong models is 2007, which also looked like EP but ended up CP Nina by winter. More like worst case scenario from analog years. It still wasn't a mild beginning of cold season in Europe and only produced mild anomalies in Scandi for Nov/Dec period. Worst case scenario that still produces anything better then whole of last winter is not a bad start. 

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XN9IGhqgT6.png

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22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Only other year I could find with being similar to some borderline moderates/strong models is 2007, which also looked like EP but ended up CP Nina by winter. More like worst case scenario from analog years. It still wasn't a mild beginning of cold season in Europe and only produced mild anomalies in Scandi for Nov/Dec period. Worst case scenario that still produces anything better then whole of last winter is not a bad start.

Ugh, I would argue 2007 was worse than 2019. Sure it was colder but no snow at all, just never ending inversion in December and winter ended at the beginning of January. Anyway how does La Nina 10-12 compares to this year? Wasn't it also fairly strong and CP during winter 10/11?

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2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Getting less optimistic for a cold winter now with how the CFS ENSO forecast has altered over the last few weeks

NINO 1+2 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.803b8b43771888395f99c22c382cbc9b.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb519c88a7596365c85a8059edb5ff5.pngimage.thumb.png.f21660bf8a9ed37cbdb09dff81b1941d.png          

If you want an EP La Nina which helps with getting us a colder winter then the above forecast makes for grim reading as this region is expected to warm up somewhat over the winter but will remain in La Nina territory

NINO 3.4 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.98f8f7dff52e699da4317a00c60630c5.pngimage.thumb.png.ff93f1cd009f9c4e865945ece9ecafdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c9766bb51d7a57bd755f8e78f03d6b07.png    

The above charts make for grim reading for a colder winter. The first 2 have us at moderate La Nina at the peak of the event, maybe a small chance of a strong event and at this point I still had hope. However the very latest update shows a strong La Nina event is becoming more likely with the peak at almost -2C below average

Maybe all of the seasonal models are picking up on the increasing chances of a strong La Nina event taking place and this maybe explains why they all look so grim for cold weather chances.

The only positive I can see us getting from a strong La Nina is that it may help to get rid of all that warmer water in the N Pacific ready for winter 2021/22 which if the QBO plays out properly could be an EQBO winter

image.png

That'll be 3 snowless winters in a row for me then.

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10 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Ugh, I would argue 2007 was worse than 2019. Sure it was colder but no snow at all, just never ending inversion in December and winter ended at the beginning of January. Anyway how does La Nina 10-12 compares to this year? Wasn't it also fairly strong and CP during winter 10/11?

Yes 2010-11 was a healthy moderate/strong CP Nina. I hate inversion cold as I happen to live in the coldest valley for inversion cold in whole central Europe.Last January I had few days not much above -7C with no wind at all,and you are right 2007/08 was very poor for snow

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7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Yes 2010-11 was a healthy moderate/strong CP Nina. I hate inversion cold as I happen to live in the coldest valley for inversion cold in whole central Europe.Last January I had few days not much above -7C with no wind at all,and you are right 2007/08 was very poor for snow

I hope your valley is not a smog magnet like my city. That's why I hate inversion cold. You can't do nothing outside with that cancerous air. No snow seems like a common theme with CP La Nina winters. While possible to get cold to CE, it's usually just dry (Jan 17 is another example of that). 

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4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I hope your valley is not a smog magnet like my city. That's why I hate inversion cold. You can't do nothing outside with that cancerous air. No snow seems like a common theme with CP La Nina winters. While possible to get cold to CE, it's usually just dry (Jan 17 is another example of that). 

No heavy industry around my valley, all mines shut long time ago, its just orography that protects us from any wind during winter south westerlies or westerlies. Only smog would be from Gipsy areas burning anything they find, a proper inversion heaven that can protect 5cm of snow for nearly 3 weeks like last December. 

79330173_10216417292244570_3516903776709509120_n.jpg

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6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Getting less optimistic for a cold winter now with how the CFS ENSO forecast has altered over the last few weeks

NINO 1+2 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.803b8b43771888395f99c22c382cbc9b.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb519c88a7596365c85a8059edb5ff5.pngimage.thumb.png.f21660bf8a9ed37cbdb09dff81b1941d.png          

If you want an EP La Nina which helps with getting us a colder winter then the above forecast makes for grim reading as this region is expected to warm up somewhat over the winter but will remain in La Nina territory

NINO 3.4 Region latest 3 forecasts

Sep 28 Initial conditions Aug 28 to 6 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 7 to 16 Sep     Sep 28 Initial conditions Sep 17 to 26 Sep

image.thumb.png.98f8f7dff52e699da4317a00c60630c5.pngimage.thumb.png.ff93f1cd009f9c4e865945ece9ecafdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c9766bb51d7a57bd755f8e78f03d6b07.png    

The above charts make for grim reading for a colder winter. The first 2 have us at moderate La Nina at the peak of the event, maybe a small chance of a strong event and at this point I still had hope. However the very latest update shows a strong La Nina event is becoming more likely with the peak at almost -2C below average

Maybe all of the seasonal models are picking up on the increasing chances of a strong La Nina event taking place and this maybe explains why they all look so grim for cold weather chances.

The only positive I can see us getting from a strong La Nina is that it may help to get rid of all that warmer water in the N Pacific ready for winter 2021/22 which if the QBO plays out properly could be an EQBO winter

image.png

Hi squeakheartlw,

Hope you are keeping well. I am no expert when it comes to La Niña , but my heart sunk after reading your analysis. Does that mean it is looking unlikely that we will see any prolonged cold snaps or could we still have snow days with the above event?

I know we have still all of autumn left to go yet, but is there still hope for this coming winter ❄️.

regards 

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25 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Here a moderate/strong La Nina trend towards a cold snow fest for the winter..2010/11 being a classic example 

I would love to spend Nov and Dec in Canada...its probably my favourite time of year and I would imagine temps in your location really begin to fall later in Oct...

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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would love to spend Nov and Dec in Canada...its probably my favourite time of year and I would imagine temps in your location really begin to fall later in Oct...

can go either way here.. October can be cold and snowy..or dry and warm..this year im going to plump for dry and warm mostly..we usually have our first dumping of snow around mid month..sometimes it will stick around for the rest of winter sometimes not ..winter really starts with a vengeance 1st week of November ..last year it was -30c on my birthday which is 12th Nov.

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57 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would love to spend Nov and Dec in Canada...its probably my favourite time of year and I would imagine temps in your location really begin to fall later in Oct...

tend to most winters look at bbc weather Yellowknife, often max -30 min around -40

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Looks like a Moderate/strong La Niña but a slightly negative IOD(believe it was positive last Autumn/Winter) and with us going out of a Solar minimum I still feel we will achieve a few good cold spells and tend to agree with CC That these will come in the first half of winter.Interesting times me thinks..

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Going back to an earlier debate in the thread - for me, a front-loaded winter is miles better than a back-loaded one (same applies to summer).

For winter, after the clocks change and halloween/bonfire night arrive, you want some atmospheric fog and crisp, cold evenings beginning to take hold.

As the days are at their shortest point and for the run up to Christmas, snow, or cold, crisp and frosty weather makes it all feel wonderfully seasonal - even someone like me who hates winter would love something like that (I think 2012 was the last time anything remotely close to that happened here?).

Once the new year arrives, I obviously immediately look forward to spring so I don't care what happens after that point.

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Bearing in mind the last couple of non winters any snow whenever it may arrive would be welcome but yes a cold snowy December like 2010 would be what I would prefer.

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Agree with the above. A front loaded winter is preferable to a back loaded one, just for the sheer point that the days are at their shortest. 

It's like in summer, nothing feels more intense than solstice heat IMO.

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The problem  with possible back loaded winters is waiting for the cold to arrive and it doesn't arrive at all lol.

Edited by sundog
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Americans and Australians are going with a 2007 Nina like, but we need to cheer on European models  like EC and Meteo France to end up closer to reality with weak/moderate Nina rather then this ridiculous strong suggestion by NASA or NOAA

EjEGTJuWAAAVY2T.jpg

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We forget of course that the best type of winter is a centrally loaded one. Anytime between Dec 21st and Feb 10th to make the most of shorter daylight in late Dec and January and a colder continent January and early Feb. Feb/Mar 2018 a month earlier would’ve been perfect. The further into Feb we go, I’m personally craving spring no matter what the winter has done beforehand.

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I'm probably the odd one out here then. My lifetime experience is that the hardest and best cold comes in Jan/Feb - and while Feb has been a poor month in recent years many of my most memorable snow moments are in the second half of winter. The first half, at least for the far south, is often just not cold enough in terms of ground and sea temps. Modifies everything - turns it wet.

If we are hoping for something special I'd go for anything in the Feb 86, Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 96, Jan 10 sort of bracket. Only Dec 2010 is worth a look in for early cold....though I do remember Dec 81 in Glasgow as an 11 year old as the beginning of a bitterly cold winter. Diesel in the buses froze that year - and I couldnt get home from school one day! Nearly froze to death......

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