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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    33 minutes ago, swfc said:

    I think what I've seen lately la Nina isn't or won't affect our winter weather this year. Not sure going into 2021 but the confusion being created ie front loaded, back loaded, ssw ete god only knows. Chaos is the outlook imo going forward. Folk seem to be throwing comments out "Nina footprints" possible eqbo which is only a long shot. Nh snow cover the list goes on. The only current certainty is the 10pha temps are falling and zonal winds are on the up. Its weather at the end of the day and all the guess work is exactly that ūüôĄ

    I'm getting so fed up with talk of 'footprints' I think I'll go and look for Bigfoot, on Beccles common!ūü¶∂

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    Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

    Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

    Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, Don said:

    That's what Roger J Smith's winter ideas also suggest.

    In an average year, winter doesnt tend to get going until late December, and March often ends up being more wintry than December. Patience is a virtue in a year when we have had to be exceptionally patient!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    In an average year, winter doesnt tend to get going until late December, and March often ends up being more wintry than December. Patience is a virtue in a year when we have had to be exceptionally patient!

    We've been patient the last 2 winters alreadyūüėú.

    Jesus,  even if we got a few topplers that would be something  we dont even get them anymore.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    I seem to remember around about this of year time in 2015 we’ were getting videos from the meto and the bbc about how an ssw was going to drive us into a cold winter so with greatest respect to the meto, forgive me if I,m reluctant to write winter off on their say so this time round

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    Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
    15 minutes ago, sundog said:

    We've been patient the last 2 winters alreadyūüėú.

    Jesus,  even if we got a few topplers that would be something  we dont even get them anymore.

    I have to agree. The last two winters have been incessantly grey, dull, mild and westerly. To me this winter is setting up in exactly the same vein. Just one still, frosty, sunny week would do. I genuinely can’t remember the last one. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, trickydicky said:

    I have to agree. The last two winters have been incessantly grey, dull, mild and westerly. To me this winter is setting up in exactly the same vein. Just one still, frosty, sunny week would do. I genuinely can’t remember the last one. 

    Agree the last two winters were carbon copies of each other, 2018/2019 the better of the two as it at least produced a colder period latter part of January with some frost and a bit of snow. Last year ranked with other shockers for cold and snow in recent years, 2013/14, 2015/16, 16/17, we've been dealt far too many poor hands in recent years.

    Winters 1999/2000 and 2011/12 have been mentioned as good comparators to where we are this year. I'd much prefer 2011/12, it wasn't too bad, first two thirds of December brought some polar maritime air at times, enough to bring a bit of snow around the 16-18th, and then we had a cold end to Jan and cold first half to Feb. Half decent, well compared to most winters since.

    Winter 1999/2000 wasn't good though, apart from a week of polar maritime air in mid-December and a bit of cold weather later in Feb it was predominantly mild and uninteresting. Jan 2000 though was preety sunny and dry - quite a rarity with a bit of frost. Thinking about it I would take it over a winter like 13/14, 15/16, 16/17, 18/19 or 19/20.

    We are long overdue at least some cold conditions in run in to christmas and over the christmas period. Not had anything especially cold in the 18th-31st Dec period since 2010. I don't count the brief cold periods post christmas in 14 and 17, too brief.

     

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    45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Agree the last two winters were carbon copies of each other, 2018/2019 the better of the two as it at least produced a colder period latter part of January with some frost and a bit of snow. Last year ranked with other shockers for cold and snow in recent years, 2013/14, 2015/16, 16/17, we've been dealt far too many poor hands in recent years.

    Winters 1999/2000 and 2011/12 have been mentioned as good comparators to where we are this year. I'd much prefer 2011/12, it wasn't too bad, first two thirds of December brought some polar maritime air at times, enough to bring a bit of snow around the 16-18th, and then we had a cold end to Jan and cold first half to Feb. Half decent, well compared to most winters since.

    Winter 1999/2000 wasn't good though, apart from a week of polar maritime air in mid-December and a bit of cold weather later in Feb it was predominantly mild and uninteresting. Jan 2000 though was preety sunny and dry - quite a rarity with a bit of frost. Thinking about it I would take it over a winter like 13/14, 15/16, 16/17, 18/19 or 19/20.

    We are long overdue at least some cold conditions in run in to christmas and over the christmas period. Not had anything especially cold in the 18th-31st Dec period since 2010. I don't count the brief cold periods post christmas in 14 and 17, too brief.

     

    I enjoyed Jan and Feb 2019 - cold (by modern standards) and dry January, and very very sunny springlike Feb. Maybe not a classic but something different. Last winter was like an additional three months of autumn I couldn't distinguish the change from October to mid march - similar to 2013/14 and 2015/6. Hopefully just a winter with more high pressure than the last will do 

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Agree the last two winters were carbon copies of each other, 2018/2019 the better of the two as it at least produced a colder period latter part of January with some frost and a bit of snow. Last year ranked with other shockers for cold and snow in recent years,

     

    2018-19 definitely was better out of the two just alone on the fact that January and February 2019 combined were drier than February 2020 by a margin

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    13 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    I seem to remember around about this of year time in 2015 we’ were getting videos from the meto and the bbc about how an ssw was going to drive us into a cold winter so with greatest respect to the meto, forgive me if I,m reluctant to write winter off on their say so this time round

    Agreed...but we are going to have to ride out the next 2-3 weeks, maybe 4 weeks, and reevaluate then. There might be some amplification of sorts in a couple of weeks as the latest forecast for an enhanced pacific jet works through - but the ongoing strength of the vortex is likely to flatten it to no more than topple/NW status.

    The stratosphere in both hemispheres is extraordinarily cold. We know this is the overall future direction of travel as CO2 rises - but there has to be more to it than that.

    On a more positive note it is rare for a single weather type to dominate all season long. Almost by definition patterns change...so eventually it is likely this one will. Whether the change will be substantive enough to bring proper cold we will have to wait and see. Increasingly I think we need to hope for a SSW.

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    15 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I'm getting so fed up with talk of 'footprints' I think I'll go and look for Bigfoot, on Beccles common!ūü¶∂

    I think the only footprints of importance for a lot of members this winter are these type

    97861453-300x153.jpg

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    @bluearmy

    No - its this stinking big nina - if a severe cold spell doesn't happen within next 2-3 weeks which modelling suggests it wont, then it aint happening in mid winter thats a fact, for some reason i can't put by finger on it though, i wouldn't rule it out in Second half of feb - perhaps mentally re-visiting analogues - haven't actually built any this winter, either way it will not affect me because my location hasn't received a big dumping and only one of any note in the last 40 - so irrelevant for me this winter and until i can get back out to pennines.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    What about a mirror image of last years vortex status

    u10serie_gefsonly.thumb.png.a438c5ea8766ff2d88fe41d03d804619.png

    Well that was the best I could do with free hand drawing in paint but imagine "Anti Polar Vortex of DELIGHT" rather than the "Polar Vortex of DOOM"

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    3 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Agreed...but we are going to have to ride out the next 2-3 weeks, maybe 4 weeks, and reevaluate then. There might be some amplification of sorts in a couple of weeks as the latest forecast for an enhanced pacific jet works through - but the ongoing strength of the vortex is likely to flatten it to no more than topple/NW status.

    The stratosphere in both hemispheres is extraordinarily cold. We know this is the overall future direction of travel as CO2 rises - but there has to be more to it than that.

    On a more positive note it is rare for a single weather type to dominate all season long. Almost by definition patterns change...so eventually it is likely this one will. Whether the change will be substantive enough to bring proper cold we will have to wait and see. Increasingly I think we need to hope for a SSW.

    Just a question. I am aware as you say that the strat is very cold and as a consequence has high strat wind speeds but I am also hearing that this is not filtering down to the trop (as yet) and that there is a disconnect between the two. Which I would have thought negates some of the worries even within the next three to four weeks in that the trop could still go its own merry way and throw up a wintry surprise or two.

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Shouldn't the stratosphere be warming rather than cooling due to greenhouse gas emissions, perhaps my logic is all wrong.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Shouldn't the stratosphere be warming rather than cooling due to greenhouse gas emissions, perhaps my logic is all wrong.. 

    The opposite, I suspect... the more heat gets trapped within the troposphere, the less there is for the stratosphere...?ūü§Ē

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Sensing people's expectations for this winter are exceptionally low, more so than any other year, and perhaps no surprise given we've had a long run of dire winters in the cold and snow category, exceptions 2017-18. Have to go back to 2012-13 last fairly cold one overall, it was on and off. 

    Last time we were at such a juncture was winter Nov 08, then gosh we hadn't had a properly cold winter since 95/96, exclude first part of winter 96/97, 00/01 and 05/06 bit like winters 12-13 and 17-18, similar timeframes.

    Not saying this coming winter will buck the trend, but law of averages, a cold one will pop up at some point in near future, when we are least expecting it most probably!

    In any other year though I would normally hope for significant cold and snow - but this year with everything else going on, a mild benign one would be most welcome for many, more so christmas time if restrictions are eased, last thing we want is people unable to travel because of snow and ice, I don't want to get political, but I suspect the government will be taking a close look at the longer range forecasts for christmas period, and if a signal for cold and snow this may alter there plans.. so mmm hate to say it but a mild one without any storms is probably want we want, the snow and cold can come in January when we are all locked up again and in hibernation mode.

    How would we have coped had the virus happened in winter 09/10 or 10/11... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Just a question. I am aware as you say that the strat is very cold and as a consequence has high strat wind speeds but I am also hearing that this is not filtering down to the trop (as yet) and that there is a disconnect between the two. Which I would have thought negates some of the worries even within the next three to four weeks in that the trop could still go its own merry way and throw up a wintry surprise or two.

    Yes - it isn‚Äôt fully coupled yet probably because it is only Nov 21. There was enough tropospheric forcing of the pattern in October via that record momentum spike (for a Ni√Īa year) to keep the troposphere out of step but I think the clock is ticking and downwards coupling is looking more likely as we move through December.¬†

    But where there is one record spike who is to say there will not be another. We may be about to witness extraordinary vortex intensification - and maybe will we will also witness another strong MJO passage and something remarkable as December moves into January. Our planet has become tuned by extremes on a fairly consistent basis. History would suggest that a rampant vortex soaked in very cold temperatures is nigh on impossible to break, but climate history is beginning to mean relatively little. Who would have predicted such a Nino like response to a strong Ni√Īa base state? I wouldn‚Äôt be at all surprised to see the next 4 months produce the unexpected....

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    44 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Yes - it isn‚Äôt fully coupled yet probably because it is only Nov 21. There was enough tropospheric forcing of the pattern in October via that record momentum spike (for a Ni√Īa year) to keep the troposphere out of step but I think the clock is ticking and downwards coupling is looking more likely as we move through December.¬†

    But where there is one record spike who is to say there will not be another. We may be about to witness extraordinary vortex intensification - and maybe will we will also witness another strong MJO passage and something remarkable as December moves into January. Our planet has become tuned by extremes on a fairly consistent basis. History would suggest that a rampant vortex soaked in very cold temperatures is nigh on impossible to break, but climate history is beginning to mean relatively little. Who would have predicted such a Nino like response to a strong Ni√Īa base state? I wouldn‚Äôt be at all surprised to see the next 4 months produce the unexpected....

    Indeed so Catacol. My thoughts concur in that this winter will be a cases of expect the unexpected.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    19 hours ago, Leo97t said:

    I enjoyed Jan and Feb 2019 - cold (by modern standards) and dry January, and very very sunny springlike Feb. Maybe not a classic but something different. Last winter was like an additional three months of autumn I couldn't distinguish the change from October to mid march - similar to 2013/14 and 2015/6. Hopefully just a winter with more high pressure than the last will do 

    Yes indeed. For some to say the last two winters are carbon copies of each other is just plain wrong. December 2018 and 2019 were pretty similar, although the former was less stormy. Then they became more different to each other as they both wore on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    While its possible that even i allowed fantasy to dictate my expectations i do share disappointment surrounding the Oct-Dec period.

    Right now i do expect a more favorable December but probably a poor January (Nina likely to peak in the NDJ tri-monthly value with a slow weakening afterwards). February and March i am more optimistic of however a 2018 repeat seems unlikely. 

    If we can escape with CET values of 4-5-4-6 we'll have done well i think but i suspect the average outcome will be worse. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    About as dire as it can get for a winter CFS run. Really from the start of December this particular run just fires up the Atlantic and we get nothing but alternating airmasses between long fetch SW winds and some brief colder W or NW setups behind each low pressure area

    The worst part is here when storms begin to get in on the act too

    image.thumb.png.7b949ccc5b436f7a66864fc79f9f7a5b.png

    Look at that huge area of pink, purple and black, about as strong as the vortex gets on these charts and notice that little low pressure in the bottom left and let me show you what monster it turns into the next day

    image.thumb.png.316be76bc928ac37446a05c65e5974ea.png

    Look at that beast, 955mb at its centre bombing straight into the UK, no doubt would be named if this run came true. We continue in this kind of pattern right until late February when we are attempting to get a beasterly going

    image.thumb.png.2aa63fb918c776d05e04daffb9a2527b.png

    It is however doomed to failure as the Atlantic and polar vortex just come blasting straight through

    image.thumb.png.e161a3a9fcea1e00b145367da8728698.png

    Look at that for an early March storm. There are some more for you below

    image.thumb.png.8b71a06888742347f6b52f0e62985613.pngimage.thumb.png.54e383d3db4c0a58acac7b7bce9e8125.png

    It takes right until mid March to end the general storm fest and finally a break from all the wind and rain

    image.thumb.png.61d51e1116a1d71550b737e3d1685f14.png

    And to just rub it in for cold lovers we finally get an E to NE wind in you guessed it, April

    image.thumb.png.be83704c1a608fe61e4dd011cd810c7c.png

    Couldn't contrast this more than with what the 18Z was showing from mid January onwards

    image.thumb.png.dd5f5ed2e7fda713723a8df1fc07bd44.png

    After a bit of an Atlantic onslaught which is less bad than in the 00Z we are building a Scandi high here and getting the winds into the east which comes off

    image.thumb.png.1c18e2737202b9d7376b9c162cd2a2eb.png

    After this the high pressure moves up to Greenland and we set up a northerly

    image.thumb.png.ee98b1a7d834e54d2d8c5f0c169e3a26.png

    image.thumb.png.db586b60644fc0bdee33a8f973bd15b9.png

    Eventually the high pressure does collapse back to our south and the Atlantic is unleashed for a couple of weeks with a few storms thrown in but the best treat is coming early in March

    image.thumb.png.108fbcf31adde2313b6f35205841a357.png

    image.thumb.png.b99e161e414ff884eb3d05796d85d450.png

     

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    April chart likely to be somewhere close, find E'lys most common wind direction in Apr and May, hopefully out of lockdown 3 by then

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

    Baffles me why meteociel has CFS.

    It is a complete and utter waste of time and serves no purpose whatsoever.

    What's it stand for again?....

    Crap¬†Forecasting¬†SystemūüėÜ

    it's the same with the monthly anomalies,they chop and change every run,mind you saying that,so does fl charts on the gfs/gefs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    What's it stand for again?....

    Crap¬†Forecasting¬†SystemūüėÜ

    it's the same with the monthly anomalies,they chop and change every run,mind you saying that,so does fl charts on the gfs/gefs.

    Computer Fantasy Scenarios

    Completely Fabricated Sh te

    Can't Forecast Snow

    ...

     

     

    Edited by Weather-history
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