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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Says it up top 02/10.

 

Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ

Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter.

Gone is the negative low pressure anomaly to the North no be replaced by polar blocking & Ural blocking.

Slightly weaker signal for Greenland than 2009 suggestive of more continental flows rather than Northerly flows.

A very very positive update.

076281F0-2C01-4B87-9B05-1B8261AD09B0.thumb.jpeg.21652a41a3a701c7162f93018f7525fa.jpegDCACB173-C7C9-4832-8B33-43C3FA56C7E7.thumb.jpeg.002e8e102c4a0f288334ed993a91eb50.jpeg

Thanks for posting those Steve. Certainly nice to have meto and ecm anomolies lifting the winter fans spirits for a change.

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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Looking at that update, hmm at thy e moment it seems to representing the fact that low heights are not really establishing well over the pole. In general over Europe there seems to be strong favouring for ridging over this part of the world instead of the wintry Scandinavian high/ Low pressure over Southern Europe (Positive anomalies over Southern Europe as well). At this stage this output would suggest dry and quite chilly weather at times with frost and fog possible if the high is centred more towards the U.K.

However a weaker westerly signal would of course increase the chances of wintry conditions from the north or more likely east.

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There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

no  it favour's east to north easterly winds as the high is centring to salvbard

 

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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

Patience Aaron ..... 

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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

There is a positive in the sense that it is quite a marked improvement on September's update for early winter. There is also wiggle room for a further improvement on the next update in November. 

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22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

I hear you.. 

A Sceuro block can deliver surface cold via a cold mainland.

A lot depends on the exact source but the UK can see some very low temps from such a setup in November or December...

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I hear you.. 

A Sceuro block can deliver surface cold via a cold mainland.

A lot depends on the exact source but the UK can see some very low temps from such a setup in November or December...

I’d take this anyday over a raging South Westerly and mild dross and flooding 

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15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I no longer take much interest now in long range forecasting. I don’t believe you can accurately be sure! 

Take each day as it comes and there will be small surprises at times that can  often lead to something decent. 

Exactly...the winter of 2018/19 was generally a case in point, though some parts of southern England got some snow at the end of January it was  generally disappointing considering the seasonal models/ECM and MetO updates. 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Although it's true for the greats it is worth saying that the top 20 spotless years since 1850 do skew cool during December and January although mild in February.

Top 10 spotless years skew cool throughout and indeed last winter was the only one to see an above average January.

Jan and Feb 19 fit the pattern for top 20 (not Dec 18) but last year winter was a big anomoly. 

This winter is already in the top 20 section but we may crack the top 10 section again so that adds a small plus to the cool start column.

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15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Although it's true for the greats it is worth saying that the top 20 spotless years since 1850 do skew cool during December and January although mild in February.

Top 10 spotless years skew cool throughout and indeed last winter was the only one to see an above average January.

Jan and Feb 19 fit the pattern for top 20 (not Dec 18) but last year winter was a big anomoly. 

This winter is already in the top 20 section but we may crack the top 10 section again so that adds a small plus to the cool start column.

But that 'skewing' (almost everything skews one way or t'other?) is hardly convincing IMO... Certainly nothing worth pinning one's hopes on.

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7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But that 'skewing' (almost everything skews one way or t'other?) is hardly convincing IMO... Certainly nothing worth pinning one's hopes on.

The sample size (less than 20 solar cycles) means we can't draw too many conclusions but then most teleconection data has that same problem. At any rate it's a plus column for me.

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

I agree, it's far from great but I think the main point is it's step in the right direction after September's update.  Just have to hope for further improvements in November!

Edited by Don
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38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Still a bIt too early in the season to be talking about the S word but there’s a possibility at the end of the month, especially on higher ground...

1F7011CC-D5AA-4323-9725-BB39896165DB.png

It’s more than possible, I remember snow on the ground 28/29 October in Hertfordshire in I think 08/09.

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43 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Still a bIt too early in the season to be talking about the S word but there’s a possibility at the end of the month, especially on higher ground...

1F7011CC-D5AA-4323-9725-BB39896165DB.png

The s word being snow or Steve murr ? 😬

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6 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

It’s more than possible, I remember snow on the ground 28/29 October in Hertfordshire in I think 08/09.

October 2008

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7 minutes ago, Don said:

October 2008

I can confirm that the last days of October 2008 were snowy. We came back from Majorca and flew into Manchester over Snowdonia, all was a carpet of white as far as Chester.

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15 minutes ago, Don said:

I agree, it's far from great but I think the main point is it's step in the right direction after September's update.  Just have to hope for further improvements in November!

I actually preferred last month's. Last month's suggested the possibility of some lee NW'ly flows and potential polar maritime airmasses amongst the dross.

This month's update suggests risk of trough out west against a Sceuro high and potential for a deep S'ly flow. As horrendous as it gets for winter and not far off an 88/89 if you don't get much continental influence.

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I actually preferred last month's. Last month's suggested the possibility of some lee NW'ly flows and potential polar maritime airmasses amongst the dross.

This month's update suggests risk of trough out west against a Sceuro high and potential for a deep S'ly flow. As horrendous as it gets for winter and not far off an 88/89 if you don't get much continental influence.

I think much hinges on how strong La Nina gets.  GLOSEA and CFSv2 are both going for very strong events which would be bad news.  Just hope they are overdoing it!

PS I hope you've got that sock ready...... 😜

 

Edited by Don
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I’m more with @CreweCold than @Steve Murr on the GloSea5 update but only by a bit.  I think, though, that it is an improvement on the September charts for NDJ, here October chart first:

A10E497B-1F4B-4800-83E6-6588E7704E44.thumb.png.4b76fa2508aebaf6914b32b9cc2bab72.pngA0E6A8B5-4BD5-4330-88E1-3B778F4AD916.thumb.png.2b928db0787cc7efade41e7f26777557.png

Remember these are 3 month averages, and we are at the moment interested primarily in the first two, the probability of higher heights to the north look significantly increased in the October outlook.  But we have a long way to go, maybe the trend will be our friend, and the November update will be very important.  

Looking at the seasonals overall, though, there is enough suggestion for an early cold winter to keep the interest for now, that’s for sure.  It could be so much worse at this stage.  And let’s not forget that snow advance and events over the Arctic during October can be very important and we haven’t got a take on those yet really.  Early days.... 

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