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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty much everything points towards cold early doors...

Funnily enough the pattern of mid-Atlantic blocking we are currently seeing (and what is being highlighted in FI) is actually more of November composite for Nina development (similar for December but more pressure on the ridge indicating more of a NW than N flow), the composites for weak and moderate Nina development actually suggest more of UK/Scandi High solution for the UK in October, in this sense we are overpeforming the mean for our opening Q4 gambit.

...........

QBO value for September (Standardised) was above +1 and from next month we will actually be above last year.

PDO value for September was a solid -1.01 which narrowly is the coolest September value since 2012. 

 

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Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Never got one wrong?  Since when?  Must be a lot of wriggle room in the words of a forecast to claim that!  

I don't think even Brian would claim to have got every forecast for Winter correct. He'd be minted if he had.

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24 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

The winter forecast is issued on the 2nd December on two and is written by Gav.I think what Brian is suggesting in his opinion on current modeling he is suggesting at this stage a milder than average winter.

C.S

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It is October now, life is on hold.

Does anyone pine for the October Pattern Index (OPI)?  How we need it now.  To give a false sense of security, to relieve the boredom, to generate discussion.  

It was great every GFS run an update on an output parameter that no-one understood but we could all factor into our musings of the coming winter!  And massive fluctuations.  Nostalgia!  

We need an OPI this year, so I call on members to produce one that we can engage with through the boredom of local or national lockdowns.  Surely @Steve Murr, @chionomaniac, @lorenzo @Thundery wintry showers and many others could come up with an index that predicts our winter with 4x day updates that we can avidly follow in the run up to winter.  At stake: People’s mental health!  In the national interest!

Edited by Mike Poole
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I’m sure many people could make up a ‘an index that predicts our winter’. But it wouldn’t be very accurate! I think most seasoned members realise  that the OPI was very inaccurate along with the ‘fog index’. It’s about as useful as ‘red sky at night shepherds delight’ & seaweed. I’ll never forget year before last when all forecasts pointed to a cold start to winter and the BBC even broadcast forecasts showing a very cold start to winter & cold and snow starting in 2 weeks time...alas it never happened and the winter was pants! 
 

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1 hour ago, smilersnow said:

Does anyone know how early it was prior to the Dec 2010 cold blast that we knew it was going to happen? In Leeds it never really got above freezing until xmas. Did we have an idea in October? 

The Met Office picked up on it in their November forecasts (not the severity obviously) but before that, no. Equally the winter before got people excited in November when it was clear the stratosphere was failing to couple but not really beforehand (and we've had Autumns fail to couple such as 2016 and 2017 before but come late December it came to naught). 

In short i'd not get too excited at this juncture. 

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14 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Just checked in on Brian gaze weather outlook predicting milder than average winter for 2020/21  early thoughts he never goes back what he says on passed predictions that which is massive shame as I highly rate him especially for winter as he hasn’t got one wrong yet there’s always hope but can’t see it hopefully I’m wrong 

To be fair, that's just an update from him, rather than his winter forecast; more of a "based on what the models are saying at this point"

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1 hour ago, pdiddy said:

To be fair, that's just an update from him, rather than his winter forecast; more of a "based on what the models are saying at this point"

That update is from early September, too.  He may see things a little differently now.

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The Glossea cold winter of 2018/19 was soooo disappointing, the MetO long range model rarely predicts cold conditions but right from mid November to mid January the MetO outlook was for colder wintry conditions. With memories of the 2018 beast from the east still fresh all we had to do was wait. In the end we were rewarded with record winter warmth in February and an even worse winter in 2020. Now Glossea is predicting a mild zonal winter you can bet it will be 100% accurate 😥 

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29 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

The Glossea cold winter of 2018/19 was soooo disappointing, the MetO long range model rarely predicts cold conditions but right from mid November to mid January the MetO outlook was for colder wintry conditions. With memories of the 2018 beast from the east still fresh all we had to do was wait. In the end we were rewarded with record winter warmth in February and an even worse winter in 2020. Now Glossea is predicting a mild zonal winter you can bet it will be 100% accurate 😥 

Is it? Do we have a link to that? Sorry if it’s already been posted. 

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8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Merry Christmas from the Christmas Forecasting Snow:

image.thumb.png.0c562742fae8db37f7f236402138ecb4.png 

Loved seeing this in my daily viewing of my CFS Christmas 9 month run analysis today. Entered into very cold category easily and wet so a real snow maker here 😃

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Lots of comms about the early signs.

When we think about it everyone looks to see if they can find that magical blend of teleconnections to forecast whats coming - well we can piggy back the METO seasonal update.

In the October 2009 update the forecast was already on the meto website for large scale winter blocking > this would have been driven my the Glosea stratospheric forecasts.

See here...

F91A57BD-2A65-4B95-BFB1-D457A18E4597.thumb.jpeg.8617218ec397174b70a52ec61e0e63b6.jpeg

DAB92CCF-39F7-4756-A2A9-02571A79884C.thumb.jpeg.0d1a33de89f4d0d9d338515f15eeebd1.jpeg

Also October 2010

65CFA8C2-DE8A-43FB-847C-109F3AF9EB48.thumb.jpeg.d2b4a8988cbea9608f68171c0fb53abe.jpeg

2019 was a car crash... For us...

910EFC98-83A3-4615-B9D4-7ACD6BAC5B9B.thumb.jpeg.13bb7bbb2e263694ab1c836712e5914a.jpeg

So my first landmark this season is coming in 6 days on the meto seasonal > then again on the 12th of November...

Other than that - what interests me this year

- Zonal wind speed 6 weeks spanning Oct 20 > Dec 01

- Polar cap heights across November to see how well the PV is propergating downwards or whether the blocking is holding station

- Ural blocking can force an early disruption to the PV

- Any sign of an early canadian warming...

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Comments also provide some interest with GLOSEA mentioned. Initial tweet is 3-month anomaly.

Should add ECM are going for weak-moderate la nina so likely playing big part in this going into first part of winter. ECM and METEO both the "weakest" with regard to La Nina strength. 

 

20201007_131545.jpg

Edited by Bullseye
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