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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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21 hours ago, Don said:

Yes they were.  That’s why the 80s winters did it for me!  Different story further north though.  Remember seeing numerous reports of snow further north during the 90s winters, whereas the south had diddly squat.

Feb 96. Snow ploughs in Dorset produced snow banks that the Alps would be proud of. Most snow I have seen on the ground near sea level in my 49 years. Local conditions can still hit the jackpot even 5 miles from the south coast.......

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Hi. Just briefly dipping into this thread, as a one off, to perhaps provide some further insight here... The spike in AAM in Oct was, of course, directly related to the eastward movement of the M

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28 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Feb 96. Snow ploughs in Dorset produced snow banks that the Alps would be proud of. Most snow I have seen on the ground near sea level in my 49 years. Local conditions can still hit the jackpot even 5 miles from the south coast.......

I don't think there was a great deal here as that would have stood out in my memory. 

I have a feeling that I remember seeing a forecast leading up to that and getting excited and then it turned in to a December 2010 nightmare with naff all.

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Feb 96. Snow ploughs in Dorset produced snow banks that the Alps would be proud of. Most snow I have seen on the ground near sea level in my 49 years. Local conditions can still hit the jackpot even 5 miles from the south coast.......

Winter 1995/96 was relatively crap where I lived with little in the way of snow that amounted to very much.  However, I appreciate it was a decent winter overall.  The only real sustained snow IMBY during the 90's was February 1991.  I did get snow in February 1994 but it was very short lived.

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Hi is it right that we are heading into a La Niña think I saw something on the met office website about it ! What effects of any will this have on the uk ? I’ve read a little bit about it and that it may produce a colder winter for us but is this always the case when we are in one ? 

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1 hour ago, Georgina said:

Hi is it right that we are heading into a La Niña think I saw something on the met office website about it ! What effects of any will this have on the uk ? I’ve read a little bit about it and that it may produce a colder winter for us but is this always the case when we are in one ? 

Yes we are heading for a La Niña. If it stays weak then that is good news for a cold winter but if it goes strong it will probably be a winter like last year.

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23 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well yes I was talking about my location on the Essex Coast and occasionally in that month we did have the less cold day country wide where as February 86 it never got above 4 c where I lived...CET wise Feb 86 was colder but less snowier.

Ah right. I kind of just remember the satellite imagery of the whole country under snow. Didn't realise it had warmed up in some parts briefly. I remember one morning in the first week of December 2010 the temperature reading on my car was -17c (not sure how accurate they are) and you could see ice crystals in the air reflecting the sunlight. Wonderful!

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2 hours ago, Georgina said:

Hi is it right that we are heading into a La Niña think I saw something on the met office website about it ! What effects of any will this have on the uk ? I’ve read a little bit about it and that it may produce a colder winter for us but is this always the case when we are in one ? 

Weak or moderate is fine for helping chance of cold UK winter but a strong la nina is not good....

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1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Yes we are heading for a La Niña. If it stays weak then that is good news for a cold winter but if it goes strong it will probably be a winter like last year.

Why is it that if it’s stronger it’s worse for us ? Logically thinking people would think the stronger the better ? Is it that it would be just to strong and end up reversing the whole thing . 

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43 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Ah right. I kind of just remember the satellite imagery of the whole country under snow. Didn't realise it had warmed up in some parts briefly. I remember one morning in the first week of December 2010 the temperature reading on my car was -17c (not sure how accurate they are) and you could see ice crystals in the air reflecting the sunlight. Wonderful!

Yep, I remember doing my paper round in -14C... very rare for Chelmsford. Hit -10C the following Winter but don't think Chelmsford has seen temperatures that low since.

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16 hours ago, Snipper said:

Think it was winter 62/63 that I rode my bike down the ice on the River Can to Chelmsford’s town centre. 

Now why didn't I do this in December 2010 😂

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10 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Now why didn't I do this in December 2010 😂

The interesting thing to watch was as the ice broke up as the thaw arrived was seeing some brave (idiots) souls floating down the river on the ice flow. 

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Ah memories,back in 62-63 we built an ice rink in a friends back yard just before Christmas,it lasted for days as did some of the bruises!

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1 hour ago, Georgina said:

Why is it that if it’s stronger it’s worse for us ? Logically thinking people would think the stronger the better ? Is it that it would be just to strong and end up reversing the whole thing . 

I think it's just because a strong la nina or el nino overides everything else. What a strong la nina would do is cool down the oceans which would probably increase our chances of a cold winter next year.

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A graph from my nearest official Met O reporting station which shows how ground frosts can occur despite air temps being well above zero. I am about 1 to 2 miles NW from this station and my records usually show higher ground temps but usually lower air temps perhaps because of the underlying soil or the topography here.

 

47E3A00F-535C-4B9F-BAD1-12782E0C1C62.png

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27 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Anyone know what j Roger thinking for this winter as he normally gives us an insight on up coming winter this time of the  year ?

Yes, I would be very interested to know, too.

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Talking of winter weather I thought I'd get the festive mood started with the CFS long range predictions for Christmas Day. I have used the 4 individual 9 monthly runs on Meteociel and looked at the setup on the day on all 4 runs each day for the last 10 days giving 40 outcomes in all for temperatures based on the 850mb temps and 40 in all for predicted precipitation based on the 500mb pattern. This is what the first 10 days has produced so far

CHRISTMAS DAY PREDICTIONS FROM CFS

Start 26/09/2020    End 24/12/2020        Current 05/10/2020

Temps        0z           6z      12z         18z       TOTALS

V Mild                                                             0

Mild            2                        1             2         5

Average     4              6         5            3         18              At present Average to Colder than average is favoured

Cold           4              3         4            3         14

V Cold                       1                       2          3

LEADER    AV/CD    AV    AV/CD    AV/CD    AV

 

Precip               0z          6z     12z    18z    TOTALS

V Dry                                                             0

Dry                    2             4       3        7        16

Average            4             2       4        2        12             At present Drier than average is favoured with a tie between Average and Wetter

Wet                   4             4       3        1        12

V Wet                                                             0

LEADER        AV/WET    AV    AV    DRY    DRY

I will give further updates every 10 days on 15/10/2020, 25/10/2020, 04/11/2020, 14/11/2020, 24/11/2020, 04/12/2020, 14/12/2020 and 24/12/2020

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What us the verification record of Meteo France seasonal forecast anomalies? That is a huge signal for -NAO  for Nov and Dec - only a month or two lead time as well. One of the models that doesn't see a strong Nina by the way. Mean northerly winds in UK for December 🙂  This anomaly is good for me in central Europe if cold weather hits Mediterranean and cyclogenesis explodes moving slowly eastwards hopefully 🙂  

meteo france.jpg

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32 minutes ago, jules216 said:

What us the verification record of Meteo France seasonal forecast anomalies? That is a huge signal for -NAO  for Nov and Dec - only a month or two lead time as well. One of the models that doesn't see a strong Nina by the way. Mean northerly winds in UK for December 🙂  This anomaly is good for me in central Europe if cold weather hits Mediterranean and cyclogenesis explodes moving slowly eastwards hopefully 🙂  

meteo france.jpg

That's a thing of beauty, can't possibly be right? 🤔 

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

What us the verification record of Meteo France seasonal forecast anomalies? That is a huge signal for -NAO  for Nov and Dec - only a month or two lead time as well. One of the models that doesn't see a strong Nina by the way. Mean northerly winds in UK for December 🙂  This anomaly is good for me in central Europe if cold weather hits Mediterranean and cyclogenesis explodes moving slowly eastwards hopefully 🙂  

meteo france.jpg

Lovely.

Without Glosea on board though ...

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