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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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Sunny Sheffield remaining at 9.9C -2.1C below normal. Rainfall up to 69.9mm 84.4% of the monthly average

Slight upward movement this week more likely. ECM playing with a very mild and to the month GFS going to an average disturbed outlook.

Either as things stand it's looking like an overall average month on the cards.

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EWP still on 98 mm, ten day forecast is around 30 mm, leaving three more days which look rather wet (20-30 mm potential), so current EWP estimate is 148-158 mm. Two forecasts are in that range and four above it, so scores will be mostly determined by order of forecast, the two highest predictions will come in near middle of the scoring table at 148, to top third for 158. I ran the scoring for a provisional estimate and will post this (adjusted) in a few days when we have only the ten-day forecast left to add to a known total after these coming few days of predicted 20-40 mm rainfalls in the south.

The CET looks to me like it would stabilize in the mid to high 10s for the rest of the way home, could even edge up slightly but adjustments might cancel those moves. 

November forecast thread will open shortly, working on the post now. 

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On 16/10/2020 at 10:07, cheeky_monkey said:

snowy Edmonton has lost 0.5c in just one day now down to 6.3c and the real cold does not kick in until overnight...i believe we could be below normal for the month by the end of the weekend

Cloudy and cold Edmonton is now at 4.0c which is now -1.1c below normal as predicted the cold weather pushed the temp below normal over the weekend..sub zero temps day and night are forecast all week..wonder if we can get close to 0c or below for the October average?

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That might prove to be the low point for CET, looks like it will creep back up into the low 11's with considerably milder air at times. Would say 11.2 the most likely finish now. 

EWP is probably just over 100 mm and about to start a steady climb, the tracker was at 99 mm after 19 days, 20th looked like adding 2-3 mm, the ten day forecast adds at least 40 and possibly 50 with the grid solidly above 35 and in places reaching 100-150 (Wales, northern England). And it would be raining at the end of the ten days on the 31st for another 12 hours, so have estimated 65 to add to 102, giving 167 mm as most likely finish, but it could go considerably higher if each system had some heavy maximum zones. Much depends on the exact evolution of "Epsilon" whose remnants will be in the general vicinity by about the 27th or 28th. 

Here's a look at scoring based on an estimate of 167.1 mm for the outcome, almost everyone in this list will have almost the same score no matter how much higher the outcome because there are only four with higher amounts, and those are already scoring better than the majority, but if we don't reach 160 mm then you can assume your score might be just slightly higher as those four (especially the top two) would drop down considerably.



01 _ daniel* ________ 170.0 ____ 10.00

02 _ Mr_Moreau ____174.0 _____ 9.81

03 _ shillitocettwo___156.0 _____ 9.42 (9.62 raw score - 0.2 late)

04 _ 2010 cold ______141.8 _____9.24 (5th scoring interval)

05 _ Steve Murr ____ 150.0 _____9.23 (9.43 raw score - 0.2 late)

06 _ mb018538 _____140.0 ____ 9.06

07 _ February1978__ 138.0 ____ 8.87

08 _ Mulzy __________ 135.0 ____ 8.68

09 _ DR(S)NO _______ 135.0 ____ 8.40 (0.28 deduction 2nd entry, 1d late)

10 _ Lettucing Gutted 200.0 ___ 8.30

11 _ Roger J Smith ___133.3 ___ 8.11

12 _ Relativistic _____ 130.0 ___ 7.92

13 _ Jonboy _________ 128.0 ___ 7.73

14 _ General Cluster_125.0 ____ 7.54

15 _ syed2878 ______ 125.0 ____ 7.46 (0.08 deduction 2nd entry)

16 _ J10 _____________ 125.0 ____ 7.18 (0.36 deduction, 3rd entry, 1d late)

17 _ I Rem Atl 252 ___ 210.0 ___ 6.97

18 _ Stationary Front_122.0 ___ 6.79

19 _ Bobd29 _________121.7 ___ 6.60

20 _ Don _____________120.0 ___ 6.41

(If you predicted less than 120, you can estimate your score by counting entries from table of entries on page 3, subtracting 0.2 for each entry between yourself and 120, actual numbers will be slightly higher as the scoring interval is 0.188 -- also add about 0.1 if you are a duplicate entry but not the first one at your level -- when the scoring is confirmed, some of these may change places depending on how close we get to 167 mm, then I will also add the lower scores to the table). 


UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING from October estimates

01 _ Twilight ____________ 75.38

02 _ Godber.1 __________ 72.81

03 _ mb018538 ________ 71.36

04 _ Mulzy _____________ 71.10

05 _ Reef _______________ 69.37

06 _ Blast from the Past_ 68.66

07 _ Jeff C ______________ 66.83

08 _ Bobd29 ___________ 66.50

09 _ Emmett Garland __ 65.25

10 _ Don _______________ 64.69

11 _ DR(S)NO ___________63.44

12 _ General Cluster ___ 61.93

13 _ Born From the Void 61.83

14 _ Jonboy ____________ 61.52^

15 _ Roger J Smith _____ 61.13

16 _ daniel* ___________ 60.35

17 _ Stationary Front __ 60.26

18 _ Dog Toffee ________59.86

19 _ Weather26 ________58.68

20 _ J10 ________________ 58.10

21 _ DAVID SNOW _____ 57.11

22 _ Virtualsphere _____ 56.81

23 _ February1978 _____55.62^

24 _ Steve B ____________55.30

25 _ Feb1991Blizzard __ 54.90

Will add all the rest of scores for active participants at end of the month. 

^ symbol = 10 of 11 months entered. (would be 5-7 ranks higher with any sort of reasonable score in missed month)


It should be noted that Twilight and Godber1 are at their most likely finishing scores already, while Mulzy and mb018538 have some chance to finish even closer to them, if the outcome is a bit lower than 167 mm, Reef meanwhile is also at his most likely finishing score here. 





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CET now on the rise, not often latter part of October is milder than first part, but could well be the case this year. So we may not end up below average now thanks to a predominantly mild Atlantic flow.

We are now at the point in the year when westerly Atlantic airstreams result in means above the mean average, this holds until about late April, when westerlies return near average means and below by time reach June. Still relative to average in late October not much above unlike by the time we reach December..

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Sunny Sheffield up to 10C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall up to 75.2mm 90.8% of the monthly average.

Unlikely to make the 100mm mark now.

GFS shows some colder days and some milder says so not much in the way of average here so looks like ending up pretty close to average. Of course some unpredicted very cold nights could swing it below average but I'm not looking at at large change here.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 10C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Had the cold night so could be back down to 9.9C depending on how the temperature gets today.

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10.8c to the 23rd

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average


Current high this month 11.7c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.5c on the 18th & 19th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Sunny Sheffield at 9.9C -1.4C below normal, Rainfall now at 75.9mm 91.7% of the monthly average.

Looking to be a close to average month all round at the moment.

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EWP update -- 116 mm to 22nd, probably added 2-3 mm yesterday, GFS projection (from 06z run) to end of month about 40 mm, although considerably heavier in some parts of the south, west. Still looking good for earlier provisional scoring estimate of 167 mm give or take 10. Many of us are probably hoping it comes in lower as our forecasts wave hello and goodbye to the ever rising totals. 

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Another month which looks like failing to get below the 61-90 average whilst looking at the week ahead...we've had a couple of chilly feeling months of late and it looks like only July will record a negative figure. Sadly with both September and it looks like October recording similar anomalies I can't help feeling that some big positive monthly anomalies are just around the corner just as we approach winter. 😞

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