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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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October 2020 -- Table of entries

The number in brackets after forecaster name is order of entry for last revision. If the EWP forecast is not changed at same time as CET revision, it retains the original order of entry but is compressed to an intermediate 0.5 between values in the revised  CET order of entry, or if changed after unrevised CET entry, placed between two CET entries with decimal place. 

Late entries have the code L1-1 to L1-6.

 

CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER _________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER

15.5 __200.0___ Lettucing Gutted ( 10 ) _________ 10.5 __ 96.0 ___ Godber 1 ( 16 ) ______________

13.9 __ 17.0 ___ Thundershine ( 3 ) ______________10.5 __ ------ ___ Man With Beard ( 28 ) _________

12.5 __174.0___ Mr_Moreau ( 14 ) _______________10.5 __ ----- ___ sundog ( 42 ) ________________

12.0 __113.0___ SummerShower ( 6 ) ___________ 10.5 __138.0___ February1978 ( 50 ) __________

12.0 __100.0___ Twilight ( 15 ) __________________ 10.5 __110.0___ davehsug ( 54 ) ______________

11.9 __210.0___ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 17 ) __ 10.5 __------___ Summer Sun ( L1-3 ) _________

11.8 __156.0___ Shillitocettwo ( L1-1 ) ____________10.5 __150.0___ Steve Murr ( L1-4 ) _________ 

11.7 __130.0___ Relativistic ( 48 ) _______________ 10.5 __135.0___ DR(S)NO ( L1-6 ) ___________

11.5 __121.7___ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ____________________10.4 __125.0___ General Cluster ( 20 ) _________

11.5 __ 90.0 ___ B87 ( 11 ) ______________________ 10.4 __106.9___ CheesepuffScott ( 23,43.5 ) ____

11.5 __ 91.0 ___ prolongedSnowLover ( 39 )  ____10.4 __122.0___ Stationary Front ( 27 ) _________

11.5 __ ------ ___ Duncan McAlister ( 53 ) _________10.4 __ 99.0 ___ DAVID SNOW ( 52 ) ____________ 

11.4 __104.0___ Reef ( 38 ) ______________________ 10.3 __ 91.0 ___ snowray ( 25 ) _______________

11.1 __ ------ ___ Mark Bayley ( 18 ) ______________ 10.3 __ 98.0 ___ seaside60 ( L1-2 ) ______________

11.1 __125.0___ J-10 ( L1-5 ) _____________________10.2 __ 86.2 ___ DogToffee ( 24 ) ______________

11.0 __ 62.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine ( 2 ) ___________10.2 __105.0___ Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ____________

11.0 __ 45.0 ___ Summer Blizzard ( 9 ) ___________10.2 __135.0___ Mulzy ( 44 ) _________________

11.0 __ 88.6 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 22 ) _________10.2 __ ------ ___ Dancerwithwings ( 47 ) ________

11.0 __125.0___ syed2878 ( 30 ) _________________ 10.1 __ 80.0 ___ weather-history ( 31 ) _________

11.0 __105.0___ BornFromTheVoid ( 34 ) _________10.1 __ ------ ___ damianslaw ( 55 ) ____________

11.0 __101.0___ 1990-2019 average 

10.9 __111.0___ Earthshine ( 5 ) _________________ 10.1 __112.0___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ( 57 ) ____  

10.9 __110.0___ JeffC ( 13 ) ______________________ 10.0 __100.0___ Midlands Ice Age ( 56 ) ________  

10.9 __141.8___ 2010cold ( 49 ) __________________ 9.9 __102.0___ Polar Gael ( 4 ) _______________

10.8 __ 95.6 ___ feb1991blizzard ( 32 ) ___________ 9.9 __ 99.0 ___ Timmytour ( 37 ) ______________

10.8 __ 99.0 ___ Norrance ( 46 ) __________________ 9.8 __ 89.0 ___ SteveB ( 7 ) __________________ 

10.8 __140.0___ mb018538 ( 51 ) ________________ 9.7 __104.0___ Weather26 ( 8 ) _______________

10.7 __111.0___ Emmett Garland ( 21 ) __________ 9.7 __170.0___ daniel* ( 35 ) _________________ 

10.7 __ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow ( 26 ) ________9.6 __ ------ ___ Kentish Man ( 29 ) _____________

10.7 __ 97.0 ___ stargazer ( 40 ) __________________9.6 __133.3___ Roger J Smith ( 41 ) ___________

10.7 __104.1__ 1981-2010 average  

10.6 __ 89.0 ___ NeilN ( 19 ) ______________________9.5 __128.0___ jonboy ( 43 )_________________

10.6 __ 86.0 ___ The PIT( 36 ) ____________________ 8.8 __107.0___ virtualsphere ( 12 ) ___________

10.6 __120.0___ Don ( 45 ) _______________________

10.6 __107.0___ consensus 

_____________________________________________

 

57 on time forecasts, 24 are above 1981-2010 average, 3 equal to it, and 30 below. 

With five at 11.0, the 1990-2019 average, we can also say that 13 are above that, 5 equal and 39 below.

With six entries one day late, that makes 63 in total, 26 above 1981-2010 avg, 3 equal to it, and 34 below.

Consensus (median) stayed at 10.6. 

=======================================================================================

EWP Forecasts in order 

210_IRemAtl . 200_LG .. 174_MrMor .. 170_dan* .. 156_sh^ 150_SM^ 141.8_2010cold .. 140_mb .. 138 Feb78 .. 135_Mul, DR(S)^ .. 133.3_RJS

130_Rel .. 128_jon .. 125_GC, syed, J10^ .. 122_SF .. 121.7_bob .. 120_Don .. 113_SumSh .. 112_BFTP .. 111_Earth, EG

110_JeffC, dave . 107_virt, con . 106.9_CPS . 105_MrM, BFTV . 104.1_1981-2010 .. 104_wx26, Reef .. 101.0_1990-2019

100_Twi, MIA ... 99_PG, Nor, Tim, DS ... 98_sea^ . 97_star .. 96_Godb . 95.6_Feb91 .. 91_snow, pSL . 90_B87

 89_Stev, NN .. 88.6_KW ...  86.2_DT ... 86_PIT .. 80_wx-his ... 62_DRL ...45_SB .. 17_Thun

__________________________

49 on time forecasts, 28 are above 1981-2010 average, and 21 below.

 5 more shown one day late ( ^ ) ... four above 1981-2010 avg, one below, 

 for a total of 32 above, 22 below, 54 forecasts in total. 

Consensus is median, 107.0 mm. 

___________________________

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
new NW format resulted in table being out of alignment, partially fixed
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202 minutes late sorry (but I don't remember to play every month anyway......)

 

    I personally think October 2020 is going to be absolutely horrific and end of the world like at times. I think that sometime in mid to late October, say the 19th, we are in for a vile Atlantic storm which will rival and actually surpass the Great Storm of October 1987 which will rip up trees and cause unwanted devastation  which just adds to the increasing misery wrought by Covid.

     There will be nothing settled about this month and the overall temperature will be fairly academic at a mild 11.8.C but within that extremes will exist with a predominant westerly but every wind direction and air mass source will get represented, at times snow on the mountains, with at least one very short lived Spanish plume sending warmth info the high 20.Cs with a ridiculously mild night following breaking date if not overall month records.

 

   Needless to say very wet, although severe gales will be that much of a feature that the rain that does fall will often just get blown away by evaporation in the quieter interludes! So less flooding than this total suggests which us one positive....156mm.

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Ahhh late again, been so busy totally forgot.

Will it really be below average this month and wet.

Lets go for.

10.3c
98mm

All the rain for the first half of the month then...

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

October is a rapidly cooling month,  any examples of the second half being milder than first half, probably not many.

Maybe 2009?  I think the second half was warmer than the first half possibly?

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1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2019 extreme values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ____________ Running CET extremes

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) ________19.0 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.3 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.2 (2011) ___ 5.3 (1888)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.7 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.2 (1888)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.5 (1888)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.7 (1888)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 6.0 (1888)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 18.5 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1888)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) ________13.8 (1995) ___ 6.4 (1817)
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) ______13.7 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)

 

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) ________13.5 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) ______ 13.4 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
 
31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.3 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)*

===================================================================

*1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

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I dont know how it will average out but its supposed to rain for the next 24/36 hours down here in various places in southern UK.

So one would imagine thats a pretty large chunk going onto the rainfall totals.

Hugely impressive radar chart showing the low pressure to the south of us.

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