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October 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Thanks Roger.

Interesting discussion on late entries. I imagine if the closing date for November had been a day or so later, quite a few predictions would be very different! A late entry would have had quite a big advantage.

(Note to self - don't believe a HLB forecast until it's not many days before...)

 

 

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have  you just been shopping?

EWP update _ 154 mm to 30th, est 8-10 mm for 31st, will have the provisional value tomorrow, expect mid 160s. Steve Murr had CET right on, will be around 3rd or 4th in EWP (150 mm), for one of tw

Interesting how similiar the last 4 months have been to those in 2004. The summer was similar to that in 2004. September 2004 was one degree warmer than September 2020 but the rainfalls are similiar.

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I have edited the scoring excel file which I haven't posted in a long time due to that glitch where you had to convert them on your own computer to read them. This seems to have been solved, so here's the file ... in this, you can now find updated seasonal scoring (daniel* leads autumn after two months, with mb018538 close behind and 2010cold in third). Also a new feature I added is total scoring over three contest years. I will show the highlights of that next month when year 3 is complete, but at the moment, the top ten are 

All EWP Contest Total Scoring (35 contests so far)

Rank _ Forecaster _________ Points ___ contests __ Avg score

01 _ Reef __________________ 222.07 ___ 35 ____ 6.34

02 _ Don __________________ 219.78 ___ 35 ____ 6.28

03 _ Born from the Void ___ 214.43 ___ 35 ____ 6.13

04 _ DR(S)NO ______________ 212.14 ___ 35 ____ 6.06

05 _ J10 ____________________ 211.50 ___ 35 ____ 6.04

06 _ Mulzy _________________ 207.50 ___ 35 ____ 5.93

07 _ Godber1 ______________ 200.01 ___ 34 ____ 5.88

08 _ Jonboy ________________ 198.81 ___ 33 ____ 6.02

09 _ Jeff C __________________ 189.63 ___ 35 ____ 5.42

10 _ Stationary Front _______ 186.75 ___ 35 ____ 5.34

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The highest average scores for anyone who entered 17 or more contests are from the above list.

These are not quite the top ten in that regard (for 17 and more), Blast from the Past has an average of 5.49 for 31

and Let it Snow averaged 5.67 for 25, Feb1991Blizzard 5.63 for 25.

Below 17 contests, these are the high water marks, best for only-this-year with 11 entries,

 (and some notables for 3-5 entries recently) for average score:

 

16 contests _ Thundery Wintry Showers ___ 6.67

13 contests _ Singularity (2017-18 + Dec 18) ___ 7.50

11 contests (2019-20) _ Twilight ___________ 6.85

11 contests (2019-20) _ mb018538 ________ 6.48

 (5 contests _ 2010cold ____________________ 5.75)

 (4 contests _ Summer Shower ____________ 7.38)

 (3 contests _ Mr TOAD ____________________ 6.33)

  2 contests _ Pinball Wizard _______________ 8.37

 1 contest _ cold is best, Seasonality _______10.00

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Excel file with all details ...

 

EWP201920OCT.xlsx

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