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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Not UK weather, but the GEM and Icon develop a storm in the Med on Wednesday heading towards Greece.

I don't think I've ever seen a storm like that in the Med?

image.thumb.png.23da1d8e0c9ac65acec739209575bb99.pngimage.thumb.png.22f5721f530edf5f0fecea6a62ce490a.png

 

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3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Not UK weather, but the GEM and Icon develop a storm in the Med on Wednesday heading towards Greece.

I don't think I've ever seen a storm like that in the Med?

image.thumb.png.23da1d8e0c9ac65acec739209575bb99.pngimage.thumb.png.22f5721f530edf5f0fecea6a62ce490a.png

 

The storm is off the SW coast of Italy but i've checked the weather for Corfu for Wednesday and temps are 36 degrees with long sunny periods so i don't know where its heading.

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32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And the settled weather continues for the forseeable future on ukmo and gfs!!over to the ecm to complete the hattrick!!

Looking good! no sign of rain in England and Wales for a long time! Perhaps we are heading towards a drought! please let us have a dry hot autumn .  

Spoke too soon - some rain in the forecast for Sunday and 30% risk of Rain on the 26th September in Northern England according to the models  

Edited by NApplewhite
Ame
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7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

The storm is off the SW coast of Italy but i've checked the weather for Corfu for Wednesday and temps are 36 degrees with long sunny periods so i don't know where its heading.

If the two models are right, it won't hit Greece until Thursday night onwards.

 

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16 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Not UK weather, but the GEM and Icon develop a storm in the Med on Wednesday heading towards Greece.

I don't think I've ever seen a storm like that in the Med?

image.thumb.png.23da1d8e0c9ac65acec739209575bb99.pngimage.thumb.png.22f5721f530edf5f0fecea6a62ce490a.png

 

It’s not too unusual - they are called ‘Medicanes’ and display some similar characteristics to hurricanes, though aren’t classified as such.

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32 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

If you like high pressure, bank the Ukmo 12h!...As for the GEFS 12z mean, well, it’s hard to believe it’s mid September looking at tomorrow’s charts..SENSATIONAL!!! for the s / se!!.:shok:🔥.and plenty of high pressure to come for the rest of this week & well into next week and warming up again!😉☀️
6BA9B946-1CC3-4734-BEF5-A02680399138.thumb.gif.4abc6427e7a1634627bc7c958ea8a08f.gif2DF3CF00-D9CD-4464-8B31-C531CA4AF900.thumb.gif.d545e9205f21c6ae66c41546fd225b25.gifF30FD9CF-6202-4DEF-BEE1-B45A8DA82098.thumb.png.a9140b7c480ef61716fd5771f0565189.png339F85E4-8256-4E81-9006-630126F75887.thumb.png.98235d31f01f8ec2f939b32b520e0830.png57DD7283-D3E4-46C1-BA10-5A3FE796C611.thumb.png.c532e8894f36b5286e1b1a0f903ae384.png7729FEA1-4828-46B6-A700-8EF349EF71BE.thumb.png.c9cc3a094d75212af442b350536040f9.png6EF1183A-0818-4817-BE5F-C607BF9E074A.thumb.png.088dde4e6f5a6ffbccb93ec4ada962f8.pngCAF21939-899F-4B5F-93D3-4EF9940C3B87.thumb.png.81290e1aaafe856317cc5e3e31114c73.pngD189E508-5AC3-472A-B4E3-8E6F2ACC1861.thumb.png.ac74173dbf572a32ec56d2203f7acc46.png3B5AE254-CB5E-40DC-B79D-A36EDDD77560.thumb.png.209151ef2b75b9aaf90bac0431d19f36.pngBD55C60F-353A-4DBA-94BC-71D7E61EFCA3.thumb.png.23ff8567b84225706f65129c95c499f9.png

Any snow on the horizon ?? 

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Well those charts above are pretty much the "polar opposite" of what we have right now...

Can we achieve surely the only ever year with 90F recorded in 4 separate months? Tomorrow is the big chance. AROME going for 31C, ARPEGE 32C but in Kent rather than London, so may suffer for lack of reporting stations. If only Gravesend was still running!

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26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well those charts above are pretty much the "polar opposite" of what we have right now...

Can we achieve surely the only ever year with 90F recorded in 4 separate months? Tomorrow is the big chance. AROME going for 31C, ARPEGE 32C but in Kent rather than London, so may suffer for lack of reporting stations. If only Gravesend was still running!

Has happened a number of times before. See this post in the Autumn thread:

 

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10 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

Any snow on the horizon ?? 

image.thumb.png.9ee55a1b2492ad4e7693acc0263544ab.pngSettled into the end of the month apart from a few small blips - FL I KNOW! Next Tuesday expect cold wind and rain.   image.thumb.png.6f499a381055b3076e10fe0afcb76c60.pngimage.thumb.png.0e9d601b1e3e5fce2d13857258ae0a0b.pngimage.thumb.png.139b1176b53f038115650f72e0d6ee84.pngimage.thumb.png.580cb2f86388bc2b7f017e2693e10a9e.pngimage.thumb.png.ccef09e4532acc96fb1f6a65448e5467.pngimage.thumb.png.a0fe7ad1f70e5667faf093a05864fd51.png Stormimage.thumb.png.99e412894399569d0b9da5570393ffbb.pngs heading our way from the Atlantic  - Ex Hurricane Sally perhaps? 

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Add Hurricane Sally discussion
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Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land.

The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12 to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and is quite similar to the previous one. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster  Cangialosi 

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And finally it looks like this dry spell is coming to an end in a weeks time according to ecm!!ukmo looks the outlier but has been the most consistant so not ignoring it just yet!!gfs somewhere inbetween!!

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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

And finally it looks like this dry spell is coming to an end in a weeks time according to ecm!!ukmo looks the outlier but has been the most consistant so not ignoring it just yet!!gfs somewhere inbetween!!

GFS looks pants after today, 16 degrees and breezy, and no doubt thick misty low cloud

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

And finally it looks like this dry spell is coming to an end in a weeks time according to ecm!!ukmo looks the outlier but has been the most consistant so not ignoring it just yet!!gfs somewhere inbetween!!

Could just be a blip @sheikhy !

image.thumb.png.26115a290c3ce010390b09cf44f1fefa.png

Looks like a slightly more unsettled spell by the middle of next week, but generally the main storm track looks like staying to the NW of the UK after:

image.thumb.png.6778befd28887a904a98f0a6ba87fd45.pngimage.thumb.png.9a2c4fc6099330ee7bfcd603800b4d11.png

Could be your traditional NW/SE split towards the end of the month. With AAM staying relatively high, i don't see any plunge into full-on zonal trash here just for now:

image.thumb.png.ad38795befca36a0cae66a3fd45c3bcb.png

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image.thumb.png.1627d3920c07b8c0100c6d56757c5c97.png

ECM losing the plot at day 7-10 today, far too unsettled. How quick can the recovery come after? Tropics all ablaze with storms and hurricanes, so i'm going to stick with a reasonable-ish outlook beyond the middle of next week, with the chance of some unexpected twists and turns to come!

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Well Tamara, it's unique to this part of the world that one would wish to travel 1250 miles south to escape the weather, only to have positive expectations about the fact that at least you can still talk about it. We are very affected and effected by the weather, no one can argue that 😉 Come on autumn, what have you got next!

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