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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s a bit on the edge - we’re quite close to the high and low boundaries. A shift either way could mean continued very mild, or pretty cold with easterly winds setting in. I’d say the milder outcome is favoured at the moment, but certainly one to watch!

    Always need a bit of luck for things to fall in the right place but...............

     

    If there is away to turn off email notifications could someone PM me please? Don’t respond in this thread as it will be annoying for others. TIA

    Edited by That ECM
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Enough influence from the high to the NE to prevent a long fetch SW airstream at least, more of a southerly then SE airflow, were this Dec-March when continent was colder, todays latest runs would be suggesting a much colder outlook. Alas no cold pooling to our SE just yet..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM is a bad run, high pressure pushed away allowing a return of the Atlantic, and a continuation of the mild conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    lots of uk cold and Europe cold spells spells have developed from the situation that the models are showing with warm Southerlies developing into weekend and beyond,initally.Check the archives too see how much colder weather arrived from the East later.

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    If only it was July!

    anim_vom3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    The tenor of above posts doesn't really need me to put up the T+240 NH profiles but I will anyway:

    That's ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from 12Z

    image.thumb.png.e3276f6e10ad0a2d254d988a16fe0963.pngimage.thumb.png.22a2a0bc7f4872c7e033a1cb35dff246.pngimage.thumb.png.dc01f6cff50072e916e2301ab2c7f037.pngimage.thumb.png.fb9a7d8c0a439bf7f4605221ed79bd94.png

    Hopes of the PV decamping to Siberia have now been put on the back burner and it's very much the same old story. The strong storm moving across the Pole causes the HP to sink south and kills off any prospect of advection of colder air from the east and the Atlantic takes over. GEM offers a hint of ridging to the north of the British Isles and ECM's block might be more resilient beyond T+240 than seems the case but it's not a great prospect of fans of cold conditions moving into mid month and beyond.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It'ssss Monty Py... Oh, sorry it's not, it's a godawful North Atlantic profile!😁

    image.thumb.png.22a2a0bc7f4872c7e033a1cb

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    10 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Evening all 🙂

    The tenor of above posts doesn't really need me to put up the T+240 NH profiles but I will anyway:

    That's ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from 12Z

    image.thumb.png.e3276f6e10ad0a2d254d988a16fe0963.pngimage.thumb.png.22a2a0bc7f4872c7e033a1cb35dff246.pngimage.thumb.png.dc01f6cff50072e916e2301ab2c7f037.pngimage.thumb.png.fb9a7d8c0a439bf7f4605221ed79bd94.png

    Hopes of the PV decamping to Siberia have now been put on the back burner and it's very much the same old story. The strong storm moving across the Pole causes the HP to sink south and kills off any prospect of advection of colder air from the east and the Atlantic takes over. GEM offers a hint of ridging to the north of the British Isles and ECM's block might be more resilient beyond T+240 than seems the case but it's not a great prospect of fans of cold conditions moving into mid month and beyond.

    It'll never happen....it's day 10! 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well here it is. A sign. That must be a wooly mammoth, over Eastern Europe:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Oh, and BTW... remember to squint!👍:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Still looking at a trend in the extended eps for the northern arm across n scandi preventing the upper ridge to our east gaining enough latitude to allow any deep cold to head to nw Europe 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    It'ssss Monty Py... Oh, sorry it's not, it's a godawful North Atlantic profile!😁

    image.thumb.png.22a2a0bc7f4872c7e033a1cb

    And now for something completely different!😜...even though it’s only the cfs😁🥶 🧐

    2244BC83-064B-4E40-A6AD-F92DC31BB4D9.thumb.jpeg.a178b4a5103abd9470c5c7f87c595666.jpegC4B6D3B5-976D-4D05-A86D-BAEDE01BAA67.thumb.jpeg.b56ce547134d37a73d27986731a02cf7.jpeg71913CF1-6327-43AC-83FF-1B8002237DE8.thumb.jpeg.83ec8fcf05d991b9aefc45bb3ca1719a.jpeg97AB38C9-813D-4EC6-AA59-1BF448A1A2DA.thumb.jpeg.d206f464eaed6897d2d218fd93237888.jpegEAA12CD5-4F08-4A10-B4B6-5997B7E7E78C.thumb.jpeg.c74ce80a3eb1bf2c3ba81b44a0355d9c.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Longer term ECM clusters are all going for a Scandi blocking high of sorts:

    image.thumb.png.c1351aefb701e66d781115f36448f23e.png

    Always in with a sniff with a Scandi high around!
     

    Implausible that there is one cluster given the eps mean output for those timeframes ..... clearly a lot of spread 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Yes strong signal for a robust blocking feature to our NE. Subtle shifts in its dynamics will determine how things pan out, the jet is not expected to power up anytime soon, so every chance energy transfer can go under and flip the pattern, but may be a slow protracted affair, given the rather static picture.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Not keen on the trends over the last 24 hours to be honest.

    The block is going to give way leaing the UK in a mild and potentially wet pattern.

    On these rubbish times its not too much to ask for a 3 month freeze starting later in November is it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Still looking at a trend in the extended eps for the northern arm across n scandi preventing the upper ridge to our east gaining enough latitude to allow any deep cold to head to nw Europe 

    This island is damned.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    It’s not the end of the winter if a cold spell fails in the autumn! 

    I'm just getting jitery already, Blue😁

    Once that vortex strengthens, it's really hard to break it down.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    @rapid analysis.. the equations to running 🏃‍♂️ previous momentum/top hemispheric sequence.. is a world away @ currently!!🤔. Tropical forcing is in stage [email protected] guess.. and the usual bounce of massive advection @ seaboard /Pacific ridgjng . is as weak as a long time..   the blocking formats even via now- modelling, is notable without notion of any forming vortex at its mother lobe(usual) @NW upper hemisphere  limpit comfort zone...also NO notable early season Eurasia blocking scenarios.. yet with pokes @ the pole with minuscule/yet notable warming-in pockets @illustrated.. 500 s/ contoures. Get this running 🏃‍♂️.. and all with repeat modeles north eastern punching via warm- air advection... then surely this is the best point .. just via those minor telecons... we’ve had .. for what seems a lifetime?!🤔. @ position positive... if by gains and global says/streams- and atmospheric conditions .. we are as - now looking into the best shot @ a north western/ maritime cold blast front... then bk of winter....2020/2021... let’s see where we go ... aye?!🤔👍

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    23A63A0B-66A5-4E5D-897D-6D00932109F3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Apart from the odd outlier run Pretty much all of nwp has suggested (as per the meto outlook) that the middle two weeks of Nov would be most likely be dry and mild.

    I certainly wouldn't be looking for any significant change in that before the last week of November at the earliest. (Again as per the Meto extended forecast)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Another set of very, very mild runs on the 00z suite - with no signs of any block developing and setting up an easterly.

    GFS goes well above average from tomorrow, and stays there for the next 2 weeks:

    image.thumb.png.d4d7b3f3f271a7d7d097862f088339ef.png


    ECM is also mild throughout:


    image.thumb.png.182dd491102bad24f3341736b019de46.png

    Temperatures are predicted to hit 14-16c from Saturday for a good week or so at least, with night time minima holding up in high single figures. Compare that to the average maxima (10-11c) and minima (4c) for the time of year, and you can see why November has a good chance of being seriously above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Another set of very, very mild runs on the 00z suite - with no signs of any block developing and setting up an easterly.

    GFS goes well above average from tomorrow, and stays there for the next 2 weeks:

    image.thumb.png.d4d7b3f3f271a7d7d097862f088339ef.png


    ECM is also mild throughout:


    image.thumb.png.182dd491102bad24f3341736b019de46.png

    Temperatures are predicted to hit 14-16c from Saturday for a good week or so at least, with night time minima holding up in high single figures. Compare that to the average maxima (10-11c) and minima (4c) for the time of year, and you can see why November has a good chance of being seriously above average.

    All in line with what the vast majority of nwp and Meto outlook has been suggesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

    Building Scandi high route to cold weather not playing ball, as charts show it slowing shifting East. Could be replaced by another one building from north central Europe. Lets hope...

    ECMOPEU00_144_1-1.png

    ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

    ECMOPEU00_192_1-2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Here's the ECM clusters for the 00z - for day 10-15 we have 66.6% chance of a more blocked scenario holding out, while the smaller cluster of 33.3% is flatter and more westerly based.

    image.thumb.png.15bac98720addc074ea0474b6e4cb13c.png

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