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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    32 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..😉

    The SCUERO high will destroy all hope of survival ! 

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Not a bad ECM run too. Within the next two weeks, if we do get some of the magical white stuff, surely driving to see it would be considered essential? For some of us anyway! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    And @carinthian☺️

    Yes, hope so. I will believe it when I see it. 21c in parts of Eastern Austria yesterday. 

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Fantastic ecm mean!!continental influence into the uk and actually looks further west at 192 hours compared to the op!!hopefully those 850s can get colder👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    A few cherry picked GEFS members from earlier, much to be positive from the models and unusually backed up by the longer range METO

    D71EDD06-D380-4CFB-AA31-844851969F64.png

    6F3ED826-3FF5-4BF0-ADFA-4CC2F1D96D78.png

    11B8D3B2-3974-4E11-8C47-3138DB18F19B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The ECM Mean is looking pretty good at 168 and 192, not bad at all

    image.thumb.png.3ea23d9beda971f418d761c26dc8d9b5.pngimage.thumb.png.fb79385d38d3e8c38062bcbbc0108654.png  

    Just hoping one of these episodes can get some proper HLB, but not a bad starting point (considering we're 4 weeks shy of winter!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Look at that, for a GFS T+384 chart!👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I do hope this passes the somewhat vague preferences of the Phantom Post Deleter!👻

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    On 02/11/2020 at 16:58, carinthian said:

    I would not say no chance but would agree not likely with DP of 3-4C. Of course in the time span of only 2 to 3 hours  , especially with temporary movement of cold air as associated with the disturbance across Southern Britain early tomorrow, heavy precipitation can lower the DP close to 0c for a short time as per chart below.

    C

    GFSOPUK12_12_10.png

    Some snow cover reported and generally restricted to the highest parts of The Brecon Beacons earlier this morning .

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Good to see some interesting  charts appearing albeit at the extended range currently. Certainly better than the dross of winter 2019/20.

    Meto update going for cold later in November and early December is always a good positive sign as well.

    People this morning were commenting about others getting excited at outlier Boom charts at 384 on the gfs especially when the 00z freezer charts gave way to balmy southerlies on the 06z all I would say in that regard is that every cold and snowy spell we've ever had in the christmas pudding will have been an outlier boom chart at 384 at some point. 

    We await developments as November progresses with interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    I wasn't sure of the evolution looking at last night's 12Z models but as a wise man once said, "tomorrow's just another day" so let's see where we are tonight:

    image.thumb.png.ad0c9e558b417358136bb6eb2403adc8.pngimage.thumb.png.c026ec44f95e5faca220774a0b43f788.pngimage.thumb.png.64a63f1e35824699f29c973353a07726.png

    Similarities but also subtle differences between the ECM, GEM and GFS OP at T+240.

    Both ECM and GEM build the HP over Southern Scandinavia but the GEM HP orientation draws a warmer SSE'ly feed with the ECM threatening more of an advection of frigid air. GFS OP has the core of the HP further to the NE - it's a proper HLB and the potential for advection is obvious but it looks too far to the east for coldies.

    Looking at the PV profile  - ECM has an elongated lobe suggesting a transfer of energy to Siberia which would help hold the Scandinavian HP in situ. GEM has plenty of colder air over Siberia with the vortex core edging further into Canada. GFS OP keeps a strong PV in its usual place but a lobe has detached into the Atlantic.

    GFS keeps the Atlantic most active and the profile doesn't look the best for cold to this observer with too much energy. ECM looks the most promising with the Atlantic quiet and a possible energy transfer across the Pole.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ecm spread 850’s shows the possible extent of the easterly at day 10 

    80E04372-FD1A-4B27-AC71-E660F1174606.thumb.jpeg.5e3fa0a0820a0e0066daaffbde8cbd0d.jpeg
     

    and adding the upper heights 

    A) likely centre of upper ridge

    B) the possible low height incursion  (matching with the 850 spread 

    c) where the Atlantic may attempt to split some flow se

    C1392B11-6546-4CC6-A827-6B468CC87536.thumb.jpeg.5bc7a814f88c591ee66e4e49cd07c778.jpeg

     

    what should be noted is that the ext eps mean output trends that possible scandi ridge sinking - the shape of any surface ridge becomes significant re surface conditions across nw Europe 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    23 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Some snow cover reported and generally restricted to the highest parts of The Brecon Beacons earlier this morning .

    C

    Yes can vouch for that. Some very small quantities above around 550m.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Fairly similar progression on this run... 

    (big picture that is, without getting wrapped up in too much detail at this range) 

    gfsnh-0-216 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-222 (1).png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    18z continues the trend of building a big anticyclone across Eastern Scandy.

    Big cold pool building on the Eastern flank of the high.

    Baltics will go cold ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Think it’s fair to say that the Eastern UK/European/Scandinavian High is definitely not sinking on this run (288 hours)

    69F7B33D-7568-4317-9A13-2A4B2174753C.thumb.png.1ff411cb72c329f654e945776f629240.png
     

    It’s typical as well that the UK would be one of the only places to be under the milder wedge of 850 hPa temperatures (276 hours):

    81BC10DE-BBF3-407B-A516-69E818006717.thumb.png.969d0d1247bcc67c3ece02577c563453.png

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Removing empty space at bottom
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS going for 1050mb....

    There is a cold pool to tap into...

    Certainly a cool down across Europe would ensue.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Synoptically speaking a lovely GFS run..

    Certainly much of Europe will go cold ...

    Scandy highs are quite rare beasts ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    The cold never manages to reach the UK but this would put the SPV under some serious pressure! 

    gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.5279f3fad853e20380700a54117d7309.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    -20 uppers into a large swathe of mainland Europe in mid November is not that common...

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Which led to this a week later. 

    Screenshot_20201103-230012.png

    Thanks for this, it's a much better way of describing the kind of evolution to expect as I describe for cold, a southerly switched to a northerly, many many a time such switcharound happen. Key ingredient is jet split and energy going underneath heights this is the trigger. Not saying this will happen, but this is what can happen when this happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL


    Day 10 full of potential again on the GFS, beyond then is anyone’s guess but it’s looking very promising for heights to build to our NE. 

    image.thumb.png.7aa6ecf27ccc6eb311ebc3012653e587.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    7 hours ago, Griff said:

    Fairly similar progression on this run... 

    (big picture that is, without getting wrapped up in too much detail at this range) 

    gfsnh-0-216 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-222 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.88e4e5d4eb065f33acd2d28b2dc84ef7.png

    Similarities and differences, a bit like opinion polls, suggestive of something but far from guaranteed a winner 😉 

    As @Ali1977 just said, potential yes, guarantees, no... 

    Edited by Griff
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