Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Riding from South West stops the march of cold air🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Interesting to note Met Office going for cold end of November, so we may eventually get there..

    Yep just read the update and is a nice read towards the end of November and start of December. Let’s hope it holds firm and maybe some of these brilliant runs from the gfs will come of and the BFTE hits are shores .  

    C8BB5325-1F06-4553-A9A3-FA9A7489CD7C.png

    40470764-E788-444E-B2E6-28C39D2D04AB.png

    9FC71FE9-BF76-474F-A355-6F98C38FE92A.png

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
    18 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Riding from South West stops the march of cold air🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Was a big tease in the end wasn’t it but obviously won’t pan out like that. Get the block in place and we are in the game at least.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

    Was a big tease in the end wasn’t it but obviously won’t pan out like that. Get the block in place and we are in the game at least.

    Exactly and its only November. Be positive you never know we might get a break 👌👌👌

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Exactly and its only November. Be positive you never know we might get a break 👌👌👌

    Would be amazing to have such a deep cold pool coming over the relatively warm North Sea. I will never forget the Thunder Snow of 2010 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    There does seem to be *some* support for a potential colder period of weather later this month. The GFS 12z of course develops quite a Scandi block and advects cold air westwards across Europe, this not without support amongst the ECM clusters.

    20201103173320-1c1221be697ca0f1b4901342bf3358c3bbb4a746.thumb.png.4b90789a74b7f46c60a70bdc8840be86.png

    Whether this translates to an early UK cold spell or not however remains to be seen. But certainly support for a Scandi block later this month.

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    31 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    There does seem to be *some* support for a potential colder period of weather later this month. The GFS 12z of course develops quite a Scandi block and advects cold air westwards across Europe, this not without support amongst the ECM clusters.

    20201103173320-1c1221be697ca0f1b4901342bf3358c3bbb4a746.thumb.png.4b90789a74b7f46c60a70bdc8840be86.png

    Whether this translates to an early UK cold spell or not however remains to be seen. But certainly support for a Scandi block later this month.

     

    Reading other thinking, based on the La Nina background , and  lagged effect of recent tropical activity, then the route to a colder evolution if it comes off will come courtesy of the current ridge to the east swapping places with the current trough sat to our west, a classic switcharound, warm air advection through mid atlantic inflating heights to our east, cold air advection on its eastern flanks, energy then splits - jet goes underneath the heights and allows retrogression to take place, and instead we end up with a colder flow from the north. 

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just to show how fair / unbiased I am😜...here’s a few charts from the longer term GEFS 12z...both offer something different!...take your pick!😉

    0772BBD5-2C0B-4582-B76E-147612A44278.thumb.jpeg.2dda719a8360c3584abcf7a24abac883.jpeg7115C887-8EA6-4CF8-9956-214F823213C4.thumb.jpeg.2135aed2366cc86ca4a5b810fca71585.jpeg

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    We are seeing some nice output at the moment 😍😍😍 and not just staring down the barrel at dros.👍

    5F25A048-8FC2-4CBB-86A1-0777A561B982.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Reading other thinking, based on the La Nina background , and  lagged effect of recent tropical activity, then the route to a colder evolution if it comes off will come courtesy of the current ridge to the east swapping places with the current trough sat to our west, a classic switcharound, warm air advection through mid atlantic inflating heights to our east, cold air advection on its eastern flanks, energy then splits - jet goes underneath the heights and allows retrogression to take place, and instead we end up with a colder flow from the north. 

    Yes - I think so. And the Sceuro high is a definite friend here, helping perturb the vortex from below and assisted by forecasts of north pacific low pressure systems running close to the Rocky Mts....

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

    Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Well the ECM looks as tho it could go on to deliver the long awaited easterly. Nice runs this evening 👍

    1116990D-A0F0-4A13-8B81-8BB51BE788AD.png

    C90DFB07-1005-4363-9413-C253BF0E70F1.png

    C51E651A-A4EF-41C3-B20C-6D77A2335B3F.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

    Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

    Yes NWS 

    Ecm now smelling the western train but will it deliver that eastern promise😜

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.68d1f7ebcd91d514cea1bf92c9f74a8b.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.4c84dfcf211de99147f358836e847df9.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.f61f9aa1f3b021c39f62f089260903f0.gif

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

    Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

    Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..😉

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yes NWS 

    Ecm now smelling the western train but will it deliver that eastern promise😜

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.68d1f7ebcd91d514cea1bf92c9f74a8b.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.4c84dfcf211de99147f358836e847df9.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.f61f9aa1f3b021c39f62f089260903f0.gif

     

    The low pressure development to our SW  this weekend, certainly an indicator that energy in the jet is wanting to split, indicative of its weakened nature.. its perhaps no surprise longer term we see a more east-west orientation of heights to our NE then north-south, as energy is forced underneath.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Massive scandi high incoming!!more seasonal weather over the next 2 weeks!!

    And beyond!!!😜...hopefully!

    but...

    we are not there yet so lets see what happens over the next few days

    and not forgetting that failed easterly at just 72hrs out!!!

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    20 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..😉

    And @carinthian☺️

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    The low pressure development to our SW  this weekend, certainly an indicator that energy in the jet is wanting to split, indicative of its weakened nature.. its perhaps no surprise longer term we see a more east-west orientation of heights to our NE then north-south, as energy is forced underneath.

    Yes @damianslawI think we still see troughing into Europe from both the Russian side and the Atlantic. Ideally, as you mention a split in the Atlantic energy is perhaps best indicated in the latter part of the GFS run. The ECM is looking promising but still shows too much energy over the North Arm of the Scandi High. Its a fine balance to get the right synoptics to advect cold air westwards but we need to see lower heights over Southern Europe with an undercut of the block.

    C

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...