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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    1 hour ago, IDO said:

    The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

    anim_tri3.gif

    On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

    D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

    Some pretty NH profiles indeed. The 00z FI GFS looks like a lopsided butterfly. Should be some cold for North Eastern US  and also North Eastern Europe in this set up. Also the potential for others to get in on the action., although it is FI and still only November

     

    770227E9-5939-4D9D-9CED-21E72012D8C9.png

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    when I woke up and saw this the phrase rhymed  with ‘clucking bell’.  Starting to get excited about the first half of winter now!
    image.thumb.png.d066a79520a0ba112cce5a5827e49324.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM day 10 - first op chart of the season worth a comment. Looking nice and blocked 🙂 

    B1420B35-8875-4742-8E1D-8E5B83982BBB.thumb.png.432cac3a3d8d2d261acd51e73e7be9b0.png

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Arghhhh..loving the ECM 0z op BUT I want too see days 11,12 & 13 dammit!!!!😜😁🥶:snowman-emoji: ❄️
    01C833D7-BD9D-412C-AEC2-74F58878CE1E.thumb.jpeg.f9ff026830529159071d47da2b882a74.jpeg33F5C182-9972-4412-ACC4-1BB344B1F467.thumb.jpeg.e6a54f2f3b5ba69e14c69cfc08faaf0f.jpeg0D6453EE-3F75-4CCA-9269-11D0E9BCF1E8.thumb.jpeg.84f03dd223e618800357080811a9a726.jpegA4C023DD-9247-41AC-A7D4-16D514CD141F.thumb.jpeg.733ed6e7e2befaa9395df854e0d271cc.jpeg
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    0z ECM 10 day mean showing HP slap bang over the UK

    EDM1-240_umh3.GIF

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It’s good too seee the GEFS 0z mean looking strongly anticyclonic in the mid / longer term which ties in with Exeter’s thoughts!..nice ECM 0z ens mean day 10 to!!!...However, I would love a screaming mid Nov Northerly!!!!...ps..has anyone got any cobweb remover?, I can’t clean them off my new🍎 tablet!!!!😜🧐

    C9BDB951-05B7-4294-8D23-224FA8786A21.thumb.jpeg.009e7e62aa699420127827f0eb26b58f.jpeg0064AAA7-5095-453C-94D4-86591C1FF9AD.thumb.jpeg.dc37aff926572960a44f1f2ddd1eb8e2.jpeg704781EC-4D97-4CC8-8F2C-214012A7B3B6.thumb.jpeg.d241c34cc11b97c90a66ff5abda485ec.jpegEB54D3B5-53A3-4CC3-B9AE-CCFA8A1E29F8.thumb.jpeg.89d77a5a9f493335bd3481496a9ae0e7.jpeg1FE5FD82-586D-4531-8519-354E215FAB48.thumb.jpeg.717f3c924c5eeb537b99d57a61b9af18.jpeg

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London

    I see the season of "look at those 10 day charts" has well and truly begun.  Not getting into the hype yet, but certainly must be a small to moderate possibility that we end up with a colder, blocked scenario around mid/late November,

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Hopefully any HP will be placed well enough to produce low minima ...

    The nights are drawing in ...

    Fascinating outputs...

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Net/wx-sr showing severe gales midday tomorrow for the N/W Highlands.

    1943121440_viewimage-2020-10-31T102615_361.thumb.png.59d9189c878afffdd589d0af429b08e9.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Nice to see unless you live in the canaries. 😄

    719A9A39-5E38-4A7E-B440-00A3A382F634.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    I'd be chuffed with that 10 day chart if it were to continue on a trend over the next few days.

    We must not get carried away or people will get unhappy rather quickly!

    ECM mean does have high pressure over the UK which I'll take any day with frosty nights!

    image.thumb.png.11e6dc38c1b2285d0408293f0c21266e.png 

    Edited by Jamiee
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Please let’s not get too analytical on a day 10 ecm op ..... it looks like a period of high amplification with HLB and a very stressed trop vortex through week 2 - anything more detailed than that is wasteful of your time ! 

    Aye, another year of Vortex Stress is getting underway!😱

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    image.thumb.png.f3b7de322d6d2cd0beba8aa1b56438f5.png

    More eye candy for you lot with an omega block over Greenland.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes.. EC clusters going for northern blocking..

    Old skool November looking good!!

    Fog frost etc hopefully in abundance ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    First of all, R.I.P Sir Sean Connery..the BEST JAMES BOND EVER!!!..second of all, the GEFS 6z mean stays generally settled..even at the end!!!😜🧐

     

    292259B1-16FF-4ABD-B337-09D2982CAEAF.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Storm Aidan arrives and looks like more severe weather over the rest of the weekend with Gales and potentially damaging stronger squalls/gusts to come.  

    06z shows some very tight isobars to cross the heart of the country so not merely breezy one would think.

    image.thumb.png.2b5751ecb70a2aa0d0d64a2011b6dd7e.png

    image.thumb.png.7a1ddaf0450c633d81a95935ca3926f3.png

    HP building in from W / NW toppling over us to follow.  Could get some nice frosty nights and a nice long dry spell would be good too ( in time for lockdown???).  I think every chance of a HP influenced November is on the cards.
    As being said some nice NH profiles being shown as posted aplenty in posts above.


    BFTP

     

     

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

    anim_wtn8.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

    anim_wtn8.gif

    I havent been through eps individually, i would expect  some limited support given the mean but nothing really from the GEFS and its a 30 member suite now, when a 240 op shows that, for it to have a likelihood of bringing a proper Northerly down from the Arctic, you would expect at least a few GEFS members to go as low as -8c to -10c on the 850hpa temps by 384.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I havent been through eps individually, i would expect  some limited support given the mean but nothing really from the GEFS and its a 30 member suite now, when a 240 op shows that, for it to have a likelihood of bringing a proper Northerly down from the Arctic, you would expect at least a few GEFS members to go as low as -8c to -10c on the 850hpa temps by 384.

    There are options that would bring 850hpa you talk about just need patients mid month onwards is where the fun will begin I believe. 🥶

    gensnh-18-1-384.png

    gensnh-4-1-384.png

    gensnh-6-1-384.png

    gensnh-0-1-276.png

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