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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Looking less and less settled Tim isn’t it?

     

    BFTP

    Perhaps, but i’m not seeing the “serious storm conditions” you were forecasting? Looks like normal autumn to me 🤷🏻‍♂️As I said ‘there’s always a few deep depressions in autumn 🍂 

    gfs-0-318_oiu0.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    amazing model here looks like a very opposing model. 

    00_132_mslp500.png

    00_108_mslp500.png

    00_216_mslp500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.197f4584532695578f68d05575abfa2f.pngimage.thumb.png.0611267120995a800727093174c22d9e.pngimage.thumb.png.9d6555b14d8f156c3a8fe9281e988233.png

    A quiet bonfire night in the offing going by GFS, ECM and GEM this morning.

    NOAA anoms showing this too:

    image.thumb.png.e9714023199686c990c60611986b1f81.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Ecm op continues to run a split vortex event days 8-10 which drives deep cold into c Russia and could provide e Europe with an early v cold shot if the euro high ends up becoming scandi ish  .....the gfsp also continues to show an unhappy vortex as week two progresses. Caution for coldies is that we’ve seen November show this in the past before December fires it up ! 

    Geographically speaking,( and I know you watch the NH closely) Urals worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks Blue .

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.197f4584532695578f68d05575abfa2f.pngimage.thumb.png.0611267120995a800727093174c22d9e.pngimage.thumb.png.9d6555b14d8f156c3a8fe9281e988233.png

    A quiet bonfire night in the offing going by GFS, ECM and GEM this morning.

    NOAA anoms showing this too:

    image.thumb.png.e9714023199686c990c60611986b1f81.png

    bonfire night cancelled locally, totally unprecedented ...

    But yes, a quiter period early November beckons looking at 00z data..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    ^^

    Last frame perhaps suggestive of PM airflow( mid Atlantic ridge) with some early season snowfall for elevated NW Britain ...perhaps.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Anticyclonic signal is growing stronger by the day..it’s looking increasingly likely that high pressure will be dominating most..or even all of the u k from the second half of next week onwards which will be great news for the November fog index!!!! 🌫 😜
    1AEC911D-22CF-46F3-B8F2-62A9A76EE157.thumb.gif.66e01bd68a07472db4ec0177c8e97975.gif2A159AE6-27D6-4CCA-9F34-2969B34966F1.thumb.gif.1fcc428dad2f85afb68f122726fe443c.gifF3624DB1-154C-4990-8109-58B56F8B1977.thumb.png.b5bed77870fdbc9538a5c9f1b3163f4c.pngD34DFEF5-25CE-4F55-BEE9-C8BF7C6F72AA.thumb.png.8825e6e2960ae872b5f47bf65a1707b4.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.png ECM 06Z @ 192 hrs

    Good to see the 1045 HP modelled on the ECM 06z for 4th Nov. ( GFS and GEM are largely similar )

    A strong chance of an anticyclonic spell coming up towards bonfire night and beyond as many have also said.

    Chances of some seasonal fog and frost i hope

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    It’s quite ironic that an anticyclone is being progged for bonfire night for the first time since... perhaps 2006?... when many bonfire night events won’t be going ahead. Nevertheless, it’d be most welcome especially if sunny. The 2006 one was a cold high after a preceding northerly but the arrival of next week’s doesn’t draw in any cold air ahead of it so it would likely take a few days to become properly cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The control run deep in the realms of fl...

    gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.07f240291599e2cdd89e79fe36f488e4.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.9370ed3aab6055fe05b591fc7a3db9d0.png

    northern Europe into the freezer would be a good start,now can we tap into that cold air?,i wouldn't bet my house on it😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    29 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The control run deep in the realms of fl...

    gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.07f240291599e2cdd89e79fe36f488e4.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.9370ed3aab6055fe05b591fc7a3db9d0.png

    northern Europe into the freezer would be a good start,now can we tap into that cold air?,i wouldn't bet my house on it😆

    Yes would be a great start indeed. A cold pool to our north and east, was very much missing last winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Typically 6z provides a very festive Bonfire night in the year crowds cannot gather with temps probably not far from zero by 9pm on the 5th.

    Decidedly chilly elsewhere too  - OK its a long way out but if HP is involved as looks likely, its not out of the question...

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    Perhaps, but i’m not seeing the “serious storm conditions” you were forecasting? Looks like normal autumn to me 🤷🏻‍♂️As I said ‘there’s always a few deep depressions in autumn 🍂 

    gfs-0-318_oiu0.png

    That’s the 8th, and there’s still potential  but still FI 

    HP to build in afterwards looks a decent bet but not beginning of Nov.

    BFTP

     

    image.gif

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Typically 6z provides a very festive Bonfire night in the year crowds cannot gather with temps probably not far from zero by 9pm on the 5th.

    Decidedly chilly elsewhere too  - OK its a long way out but if HP is involved as looks likely, its not out of the question...

    Bitterly cold snowy Xmas too when we’re in full lockdown? 🤔😉

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Bitterly cold snowy Xmas too when we’re in full lockdown? 🤔😉

     

    BFTP

    One day you might just be right, one day!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    44 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    That’s the 8th, and there’s still potential  but still FI 

    HP to build in afterwards looks a decent bet but not beginning of Nov.

    BFTP

     

    image.gif

    so that’s your definition of ‘serious storm conditions’ for early November? Looks like slack winds in the south east & showers and average wind speeds (for this time of the year) for the rest, Certainly not stormy! Perhaps the far north / west Scotland and even for here it’s quite average for the time of year ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    One day you might just be right, one day!

     

    John it was a joke as some could see 🙄

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    so that’s your definition of ‘serious storm conditions’ for early November? Looks like slack winds in the south east & showers and average wind speeds (for this time of the year) for the rest, Certainly not stormy! Perhaps the far north / west Scotland and even for here it’s quite average for the time of year ?

    I think that hours later it would bring a lot more than that.... certainly not Hp building from the south.... 🤗

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    On this run the UK high becomes a scandi high and we pull in a short easterly. Unfortunately it’s a bit early in the season and no real cold to tap into. Could end up with a PM northwesterly flow after though. 
     

    gfs-0-234_are9.png

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Indeed! The GFS 12Z continues with a similar scenario to the 06Z run: the Azores High comes to have a party over the UK for a time from around mid-week next week. Maybe one to keep an eye on if this possible trend continues.

    E364F6F7-65DC-4F6F-BD49-B9C13DE18B1F.thumb.png.983b323e1aabe7426ab1d71f7c383ade.pngCD10F59E-8A9F-4035-94C8-7520FAA2549A.thumb.png.13e9051fa9665dff0d47c0a4207ee847.png127AE3BE-739A-4EA1-B4D8-D34EE6FC295C.thumb.png.4124bfea67e690e5eb28bb0e3edf4f1f.pngCE7B748B-8600-4898-BD1E-CA0290A226BD.thumb.png.49a700fee8176100737ca74e71eb7fb4.png
     

    Apart from the above post, this is a reminder this is the Model Output Discussion thread. Any more off topic posts, and you’ll be put in isolation.. in our secret underground prison! Oh, and your post could vanish! 😈

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