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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

We have some actual weather from the ECM advertised for a week from now. It's wet, it's windy, it's autumnal.

Well, it is autumn so seasonal, I guess

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Edited by LRD
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5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:
5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

 I still say there’s a chance of heights encroaching from the south during early November so perhaps becoming more settled, at least across the south.

 

The ECM 12z op must have read my post from earlier..it’s cleverer than I thought!😜

1A9A1D8A-BDEE-46A2-9BA7-4149DD382CA3.thumb.gif.bf67aa18147e7b26e16d7b9d14dbb31e.gifD8BBCD33-267E-4690-96BF-F277EE2A3982.thumb.gif.d32198d136c29b62451b3f750d3aeaab.gifCCB83A4A-97B4-4AF6-B5A7-B1E39B0E932E.thumb.gif.05748cb33f984aa88a08c01aac6d9723.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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GEM disagrees with the extent of high pressure influence that ECM is predicting in FI. But you'd have to favour ECM I guess. GEM 216 and 240 here:

image.thumb.png.a5954cdd1562b275b403a0ad21d2ea2c.png

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Autumnal weather in autumn. Well, who'd have thought it

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On 21/10/2020 at 19:37, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

My thoughts are far from warmth, anyone worried about potential serious storm conditions....could be a couple rattling in with early Nov of real watch territory 

 

BFTP

There’s always a few deep depressions around in mid autumn, but early November looks relatively settled to me, especially further south 🤷🏻‍♂️

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I think there is a theme emerging here of the Atlantic running into the buffers.  GFS 18Z at T192, T240, T282:

6FB99D53-17FC-4BB7-966B-F5E473697B35.thumb.png.d8a27d6fb82f2e3d8c415b9cfe14235a.png59363C03-D412-4CEB-A51A-F3B76B152062.thumb.png.d5cc003c4431503cdeeb46f1789d6304.png4AFC059F-6576-4732-BED0-19885DBC7114.thumb.png.88dd3c3cda79d68289110a09e95e5e6f.png

The drum is starting to beat louder.  I wonder how loud in the last week of November? - that’s when I am predicting the cold will strike, northern areas first, we will see...

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I think there is a theme emerging here of the Atlantic running into the buffers.  GFS 18Z at T192, T240, T282:

6FB99D53-17FC-4BB7-966B-F5E473697B35.thumb.png.d8a27d6fb82f2e3d8c415b9cfe14235a.png59363C03-D412-4CEB-A51A-F3B76B152062.thumb.png.d5cc003c4431503cdeeb46f1789d6304.png4AFC059F-6576-4732-BED0-19885DBC7114.thumb.png.88dd3c3cda79d68289110a09e95e5e6f.png

The drum is starting to beat louder.  I wonder how loud in the last week of November? - that’s when I am predicting the cold will strike, northern areas first, we will see...

How many times do I see charts like that, even more so in these warming times. Any cold weaather is very far away from developing from that, no potential there whatsoever. 

Outlook is as mobile as it looks, potential for a warm start to November also if the jet does buckle like on the ECM. Not really the most exciting output, even any deep lows seem to stay well out West at this moment in time. 

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6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

How many times do I see charts like that, even more so in these warming times. Any cold weaather is very far away from developing from that, no potential there whatsoever. 

Outlook is as mobile as it looks, potential for a warm start to November also if the jet does buckle like on the ECM. Not really the most exciting output, even any deep lows seem to stay well out West at this moment in time. 

I agree to an extent. Bloated high pressure systems to our south, SW amd SE seem never ending in our warming climate. However those charts Mike has highlighted do show heights punching in to the polar regions on the Russian/Siberian side so some interest there

Also agree that the early November prospects/trends look as exciting as the shopping channel

Edited by LRD
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12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM still by far the most amplified through the next weekend on the 00z runs.

Just look at this ridiculous day 10 chart for November. 850s up at 12/13c, strong ridge and southerly flow. More than likely we'd see 21c here.

image.thumb.png.9053080aaf0c8c907eabbfab7796a984.pngimage.thumb.png.3c67f506811de824943df0227060c451.png

Doubt if there will be any 21c around if the GFS 00z is correct. Much more plausible in my opinion given current situation. Summer is over. 

Screenshot_20201023_082122.jpg

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM still by far the most amplified through the next weekend on the 00z runs.

Just look at this ridiculous day 10 chart for November. 850s up at 12/13c, strong ridge and southerly flow. More than likely we'd see 21c here.

image.thumb.png.9053080aaf0c8c907eabbfab7796a984.pngimage.thumb.png.3c67f506811de824943df0227060c451.png

I s'pose fog could be trapped under that if winds are light but the trend from ECM is to push that high further and further north. I thought it might flatten it a bit this morning but ECM is determined with the idea of high pressure building from the south and a 'heatwave' (in terms of uppers, at least). Oh for a foggy, frosty spell of November weather like we often used to get 😞 our autumns are so tedious these days

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3 minutes ago, LRD said:

I s'pose fog could be trapped under that if winds are light but the trend from ECM is to push that high further and further north. I thought it might flatten it a bit this morning but ECM is determined with the idea of high pressure building from the south and a 'heatwave' (in terms of uppers, at least). Oh for a foggy, frosty spell of November weather like we often used to get 😞 our autumns are so tedious these days

It could get foggy, but straight southerlies off the continent are usually a pretty dry and low humidity airmass....and we're quite early in the season, so i'd expect it to be a decent day. Uppers clearly don't translate into warmth in the same way at this time of year though.

You are right on the other point, the distinct lack of cool/foggy/frost highs in modern times is quite staggering. Just seems to be mild mush for an even bigger proportion of the time than we used to see. The increase in average CET just backs this up.

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58 minutes ago, LRD said:

I s'pose fog could be trapped under that if winds are light but the trend from ECM is to push that high further and further north. I thought it might flatten it a bit this morning but ECM is determined with the idea of high pressure building from the south and a 'heatwave' (in terms of uppers, at least). Oh for a foggy, frosty spell of November weather like we often used to get 😞 our autumns are so tedious these days

Too much like that 'dead zone' in  June & July, when the footy season's shut down and the transfer window's yet to open?😬

Bring it on! image.png.9172964e02fb92ca58c85acd8682d5a1.png 👍

Edited by General Cluster
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33 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Too much like that 'dead zone' in  June & July, when the footy season's shut down and the transfer window's yet to open?😬

Bring it on! image.png.9172964e02fb92ca58c85acd8682d5a1.png 👍

I for one am loving that EC chart Pete,i will settle for a nice settled spell with fog and frost and some warm days too,but what will happen after that💭😁

let's get the OFI(October Fog Index) going☺️👍

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I for one am loving that EC chart Pete,i will settle for a nice settled spell with fog and frost and some warm days too,but what will happen after that💭😁

let's get the OFI(October Fog Index) going☺️👍

 

I doubt it would bring 'warm days', surface cold could quickly develop and the sun is now weak. Also heights look like being pulled north quickly with trough held out to west with WAA, 'mild high' quickly turned into a 'cold high'. 

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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I doubt it would bring 'warm days', surface cold could quickly develop and the sun is now weak. Also heights look like being pulled north quickly with trough held out to west with WAA, 'mild high' quickly turned into a 'cold high'. 

Maybe i should of put it clearer,should the sun break through(i know it's getting lower now) that it would be warm-er during the day and certainly colder at night

still it looks fine and settled but it's a long way off though Damian,will the gfs catch up on this scenario or will the gfs be correct?

 

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1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Doubt if there will be any 21c around if the GFS 00z is correct. Much more plausible in my opinion given current situation. Summer is over. 

Screenshot_20201023_082122.jpg



It hasn't really got anything to do with summer being over. Summer is over, but that particular ECM op chart would be very mild for a day or two. That's it.

The GFS op this morning was an unsettled outlier against a rising pressure trend anyway (see below). ECM was very top end of ensembles, so as always the reality will probably end up between the two.

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As Matt Hugo posted below - ECM longer range and rising AAM trend/MJO movement points towards something more settled as we go through November as our trough moves away.

 

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1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Doubt if there will be any 21c around if the GFS 00z is correct. Much more plausible in my opinion given current situation. Summer is over. 

Screenshot_20201023_082122.jpg

Whatever GFS is showing is unlikely to be more plausible than ECM'S offering... 

Delicious charts from ECM. People are fooling themselves if they think there is any chance of good cold spells at this point anyway, as we're a solid month away, so any charts showing amplification and warm air being funneled up to the Arctic should be welcome.

And with the short days and low sun, I think those warm ECM charts would still serve up some very autumnal conditions morning and evening. 

Something for everyone...

 

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Shakin’ Stevens called Alan partridges new book, Bouncing Back..lovely stuff..and the same can be said of the ECM 0z op longer term!!😜

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8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Shakin’ Stevens called Alan partridges new book, Bouncing Back..lovely stuff..and the same can be said of the ECM 0z op longer term!!😜

05DAD840-FD4C-4BB8-B490-8062F680A262.thumb.gif.744ab58d4f71b9e02f846f8d8a11fb3b.gif4E1E35D4-318A-4B0C-8F74-616B249B4844.thumb.gif.a80e0ca6760c43fb715f96569cdd395a.gif

Shakin' Stevens also said 'snow is falling'... He was lying!😁

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15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

There’s always a few deep depressions around in mid autumn, but early November looks relatively settled to me, especially further south 🤷🏻‍♂️

Pretty deep stuff looking to rattle in Tim with not just the NW getting it with little troughs on southern flank.  Admittedly though come first couple of days on Nov a deflection could occur with ECM definitely wanting to see a pulse of HP coming up from our south. (Would be lovely golfing weather!)  GFS still toying with more unsettled approach but edging I now think towards ECM approach.  10 days to go, so both are FI. Knowing the UK I know which is fav, especially with North America being bitterly cold...

edit...06z doesn’t want calm and HP....Cornwall disappears.  Hmmmmm


BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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This is incredible, it would be fantastic in the height of summer but for early November this is off the scale EPIC from the ECM 0z op, ..and this from a coldie!!!!😜..you could warm your hands with this chart..except it ain’t cold!🤪

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53 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Shakin' Stevens also said 'snow is falling'... He was lying!😁

Not at the time he wasn't, snow did indeed fall regularly in the mid 80's! 🤪

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