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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Many thanks for another eye-opening post @Tamara... And, all the best for your translocation to Portugal!:santa-emoji:

    Ah. There's the answer. Wow Tamara. How exciting.

    I'd love to live outside England right now. I put it like that because if Scotland votes for independence and rejoins the EU that would tempt me.

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    Good evening!¬†ūüėÄ 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum. ¬† ECM: Tonight Matthew, I‚Äôm going to be... The GFS from yesterday! ¬† ¬† A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Hi, could someone please post a link to the excellent Wetterzentrale model output site as mine no longer works.

    Cheers,

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    54 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    And the big winter chase begins. The GFS FI is a stonker for late October. Wonder how many of these will come of this year ūüėČ.¬†

    86DDB84B-80C2-46B1-B7D0-619BCE27E5FC.png

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    16CBA97C-98AE-4A4B-85A8-F43B1EF6E261.png

    3487B737-47DF-4355-8137-BD36A915D98E.png

    Pretty stonking charts there. Shame it's late October and not 6 weeks later!

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    4 hours ago, Tamara said:

    A lot of analysis went into this theme over the summer, and it has been a case of being thankful to two spells where the atmosphere was co-operative and disconnected from the La Nina-esque tropical>extra tropical feedbacks which have amplified the upstream pattern and set a trough close to this vicinity.. One of those occasions, as we know, was in August, and the other one was that most wonderful welcome extension of summer during the second and third weeks of September.

    The previous analysis in mid September suggested that further Indian Summer prospects were predicated, and dependant upon, active eastward progression of the MJO high frequency signal, interrupting and re-aligning the wavelength in the way it had done in the two summery spells of weather in August and September.

    Instead, since then, a Nina-like grip has returned to the atmospheric circulation with sluggish high frequency tropical forcing stuck like glue to the Maritime continent and returning to that highly amplified pattern upstream that has dominated since the start of the summer (bar those most welcome interruptions) The difference, in October, being that seasonal wavelength changes, and greater temperature differentials between the pole and the sub tropics and tropics have augmented that same jet stream loop from upstream  - but has dug a much deeper autumnal upper trough across much of NW and central parts of Europe. Creating an increasingly hideous early to mid autumn pattern -  sandwiched between corresponding amplification ridges across the western Atlantic and also parts of NW Russia. A very classic traditional La Nina pattern at this time of the year when the wavelength gets "stuck" such as it has been of late. This is similar in type to what occurred in the horrendous autumn of 2000 - on that occasion the pattern locked in for more than two months...

    During the fine very warm spells of the late summer, the Global Wind Oscillation broke out of the La Nina attractor phases temporarily. The latest GSDM micro cycle of  tropical>extra tropical wind-flow circulation however advertises the growing Nina tendency with failure of the GWO to break out of the La Nina attractor phases and has re-orbited back to Phases 1 and 2 

     75544372_GWOOct20.thumb.GIF.6103492ece10dd52105f28fd6d98c42a.GIF  

    Hey presto, green light to retain the upstream amplification and an amplified retracted Atlantic ridge profile keeping a trough locked in across NW and central Europe.

    As a catalyst to further fuel to La Nina in the Pacific, trade wind strength now completely dominates the Pacific - with a concrete wall of convective suppression (wind shear) blocking the progress of tropical convection over the maritime continent.

    image.thumb.png.896393f92bf6c819b23b248c53d2ed38.png

    This will serve to drive down frictional and mountain torques once more in the weeks to come, keeping angular momentum tendency supressed and ensuring that the upstream amplification continues to tighten its grip on the downstream pattern

    The tanking Southern Oscillation Index now reflects that consolidating La Nina signature in the Pacific

    image.thumb.png.0091b02d0ae599f26a973929aad4ded6.png

     

    Putting all this together - a clear signal for an amplified Atlantic ridge to sustain and keep a below average temperature theme, which, whilst the weather does what it does, still means that for the small minority who are not hypnotized by winter fantasises, it is highly unwelcome this early with months ahead of decreasing daylight and sunlight and amidst the continuing pandemic.

    It is not a surprise that the recent programming of this Atlantic ridge to try to edge eastwards and settle the pattern down is coming unstuck as the modelling comes into a closer time-period. The outcome of this less relatively unsettled period (as compared to mayhem of last weekend for example) is still controlled by the upstream amplification serving to preserve a Euro trough which bumps up against the omnipresent Russian High and disrupts southwards through NW and central Europe. Wind vectors keeping the air source chilly - and a damp rawness closest to the Euro trough.

    From my own point of view, with much of my garden plants and household possessions now on a haulage truck and starting their journey towards SW Europe, and due to arrive on Friday, it should matter less. After all, it is still attaining daily temperatures well in the mid and upper 20s across much of that part of southern europe..

    However, it will be another six weeks approximately before my own personal departure (and in the meantime will be living in rather sparse surroundings!).  Also a requirement to think out as safe a passage as possible to get there probably by car which requires co-operation especially from the weather gods for such a long journey at such a time of the seasons.  So therefore still a requirement to have a vested interest in the weather conditions here in the meantime.

    Anyway, leaving my own off topic priorities aside - suffice to say that irrespective of where one lives, the current and ongoing wider pattern means nothing at all in terms of how the subsequent season might evolve. The traditional La Nina Atlantic profile (as opposed to the a-typical version seen most recently in 2017/18) tends to become less amplified and with a flatter polar jet arcing around it once late autumn seasonal wavelengths give way to those of winter. 

     That is, if one assumes increased influence from the new seasonal polar vortex heading into winter and equally assumes that the atmospheric wind-flow profile remains the same as it is now dependant on position/convergence zones of tropical convection also not changing. If this is the case, and present trends are leaning more and more that way, then seasonal wavelengths will augment the progression towards Atlantic blocking adjusting southwards and a more westerly progression resuming. 

    On occasion, assisted by a more dynamic tropical>extra tropical fording regime which adjusts more east based than that of a typical La Nina  (and various other factors beyond the scope and topic of this thread) a more distorted polar field can sustain such an amplified pattern for longer and/or can create the polar feedbacks for later in the winter as craved for by those who will inhabit this thread in the months to come - which would increase the possibility of cold weather loading the winter period in much of Northern and Western  Europe . For me, *hopefully safely* ensconced 1200 miles further south that particular scenario would likely mean the chances of it becoming very wet, albeit warmer temperatures originating from the more southern source of the Atlantic.

    But in weather terms, all of this is a very long way off and much is to be established. Very soon to the time to sign off for another year and await next Spring by which time hopefully some kind of "normal" life, and greater assurance of personal safety, might have resumed

    Stay safe till until that time ūüôā

     

    Thankyou Tamara and good luck with everything. If time constraints allow, most would love a fleeting visit from you on here in the months ahead. X

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, on balance I don‚Äôt think next week would be too bad, it neither looks particularly¬†unsettled or settled, the truth is somewhere in-between..what I mean is, for sure there‚Äôs a bit of rain around, mainly early in the week¬†but there would also be plenty of fine weather, especially across southern parts of the u k..,as for later in low res, there‚Äôs something to interest everyone I would think, for those who like it mild / warm & then those who prefer something cooler / colder / crisper!:shok:ūüėČūüßź
    7134B624-6A0D-4B1C-B4BC-F90DEA34DFA8.thumb.png.5a584637d3e10ad106b601e38dae4879.png6183D028-457C-4056-B105-C0544D4B240C.thumb.png.e27e537df62dcca2145af61e0ae36215.png1C1E1CB3-7DF0-45B7-A4D6-62B5ABEFE5F6.thumb.png.f49fffc4cee232cbb02aabd8792287f6.pngB6352626-E14B-43AB-9F59-E6F4891956DA.thumb.png.e2631080d3b2c55ef59b639f937bb595.png42ED4237-8CE2-4B97-9E78-F23CC60D1577.thumb.png.654976486ecac2b88db08a08be12b572.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    :shok:

    I‚Äôm no expert but the Gfs 6z op does look a bit on the cold side later in the run..even some October snow for the SE corner! ūü•∂ūüßźūüėú¬†‚ĚĄÔłŹ¬†

    68C23858-EE21-422F-AA0A-76C9789A1B02.thumb.png.a05e1b504f090b212c31a2ce1c222beb.png3FAB48EE-0D04-444D-948C-7311801C089C.thumb.png.401b975906db866d998960647c542e38.png656BC556-EA91-426F-ACB1-6DD9D09B6088.thumb.png.134b1a3c49b8fc3b4dc804d6779d61c4.png4BC8DA6F-81AD-4394-82EE-DCC836608272.thumb.png.625a60dc513d6935f60f0e419c44455f.png1D0E6BBC-1A03-422B-A64B-0434682B107F.thumb.png.0dee88989b2efa05410ba3a74d1a6e63.png88DF5F54-CD40-43B1-A763-F66ABAD911C7.thumb.png.fc8ba4576760b78901b1466d7ad62dc9.png765C1923-7E83-44D6-B5DC-935B696A9923.thumb.jpeg.ddd025b683b0510b2ee577cd6a972c3a.jpeg

     

    Crikey Karl, Jon, Frosty... that's some outlook! Anywho, here's the latest Met Office take on how the models are just now... Looking good for the October Fog Index?:yahoo:

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM looks calm and settled from T72 with the high moving around so temperatures variable, certainly a fairly dry outlook.  Take that.  

    https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1922/anim_xcc7.gif

    Don’t know why these don’t work any more, you have to click it to see the charts. 

    Good to see the ECM charts available, will take a while to sort through that lot, but very useful come winter....thanks ECMWF!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM looks calm and settled from T72 with the high moving around so temperatures variable, certainly a fairly dry outlook.  Take that.  

    https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1922/anim_xcc7.gif

    Don’t know why these don’t work any more, you have to click it to see the charts. 

    Good to see the ECM charts available, will take a while to sort through that lot, but very useful come winter....thanks ECMWF!

     

    gone a bit weird aye, used to right click on chart, then 'copy image location' now only leaves link, after paste, copy image puts on chart as an uploaded image, not the best weather on this one, my location looks cool with rain/drizzle off N Sea

    image.thumb.png.9b57b85c9e6aa9c966f33471f1510eed.png

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    17 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

    And the big winter chase begins. The GFS FI is a stonker for late October. Wonder how many of these will come of this year ūüėČ.¬†

    86DDB84B-80C2-46B1-B7D0-619BCE27E5FC.png

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    16CBA97C-98AE-4A4B-85A8-F43B1EF6E261.png

    3487B737-47DF-4355-8137-BD36A915D98E.png

    I'm quite wary of cold Novembers as they don't always, or even often, mutate into cold winters. Much the same can happen with summer. Remember this year we had that incredible dry and sunny run from April through May? Then we ended up with a below average July.

    On the other hand, I do remember winter 1985/6 when November was bitterly cold under blocking and an easterly and a CET of 4.1C. Although December was mild, we then hit a real bone chilling February with a resumption of the blocking.  At -1.1C February 1986 remains one of the coldest months ever recorded in this country. In the last 100 years only 3 months have been colder. It's a month that is frequently forgotten, mostly because it was so dry: a lesson that despite TEITS' aspirations (I hope he's still around?), easterlies are not always the best news for snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.21bbf2dc07a672adecdb59d234a73ec8.pngimage.thumb.png.e2135227c7542c49c35a096cd7077418.pngimage.thumb.png.cccd82b28746343f3f01ac26ff9dc98b.png

    The next trouble maker for the UK - a low sliding down across the country through Monday and Tuesday next week. Not a massive rainmaker, but another spell of rain and showers on the way. High pressure struggling to build in with low pressure in the SE keeping it unsettled. Unusually for the UK - best in the NW, worst in the SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.7b82b4b09c08af5b3fff944b9cbaa43d.png

    Stonking Greenland/Arctic blocking high at day 10 on the ECM this morning! Wowzers.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.7b82b4b09c08af5b3fff944b9cbaa43d.png

    Stonking Greenland/Arctic blocking high at day 10 on the ECM this morning! Wowzers.

    Tbh I wouldn't say it's a stinking Greeny high.

    Too much lower pressure near it and no dark oranges slap bang over Greenland.

    It could follow into that territory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Stellar Arctic outlook remains from the models out to day 10. Both the Euro and GFS do hint at some kind of ridging over Scandinavia however. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.93b6d727904c880090d0875b34412671.pngsomething closing in glad to say that yesterday i succesfully predicted where the rain would be on my notepad using these charts can't find it though but perhaps i'll carry on with my predictions

    from what i can see here rain to the west maybe some rain near the midlands but should be fairly settled looking again at the one before the rising of air could create something from the south and perhaps near the middle of a low as well so rain whoops should have thoought about it more

    Edited by Xanderp009
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    UKMO chart for Wednesday next week show similarities'  to the GFS and ECM runs out to 144h. Positioning of the high centre near to the British Isles and the  continental low will be crucial to the type of weather for the UK next week. Fine margins between quiet pleasant or cold and breezy conditions. The UKMO chart below would indicate a trough development in the continental flow that would make for some rather colder unsettled conditions across SE England for a day or so.  Longer term, models, seem to show a low formation to the SW of the British Isles that may evenually produce a pattern change but this is far from conclusive looking at the various mean 500mb forecast longer term charts.

    C

    UW144-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Old school Autumn Blue?

    Fog and frost more prevelant perhaps...

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    14 hours ago, carinthian said:

    UKMO chart for Wednesday next week show similarities'  to the GFS and ECM runs out to 144h. Positioning of the high centre near to the British Isles and the  continental low will be crucial to the type of weather for the UK next week. Fine margins between quiet pleasant or cold and breezy conditions. The UKMO chart below would indicate a trough development in the continental flow that would make for some rather colder unsettled conditions across SE England for a day or so.  Longer term, models, seem to show a low formation to the SW of the British Isles that may evenually produce a pattern change but this is far from conclusive looking at the various mean 500mb forecast longer term charts.

    C

    UW144-21.gif

    Morning all, just a follow up to the above post sent yesterday, looks like the general overall picture firming up on a couple of days next week of rather cold, showery and probably breezy conditions especially the SE of England  , Wash to Southampton. Longer term models this morning seem to be holding the blocking conditions with no great sign of zonal flow.

    C

    overview_20201009_00_120.jpg

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