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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Jeez.  As others have said, wet and windy coming up. The GFS wants to keep this pesky low pressure system around for five days solid.  Quite stormy at times too....

FACD3EEC-992F-47D1-A81B-EA732B9310C2.thumb.gif.48016d672ca561613d79bb865b65c572.gif

 

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Just thought I would look a bit further ahead beyond the cack to see if there are any signs of the much trumpeted mid October pattern change to more benign conditions from the experts and actually there are A few signs of this in the GEFS 12z...now that the models are reaching that extended range it will be interesting to see if there will be a light at the end of the unsettled tunnel we are about to enter...the mean doesn’t look to bad on 14th October.😜

E81B352E-C7B1-4006-A485-512F71BE4190.thumb.png.99f0d56dc3682404bdb151105d876882.png4F5BE149-FEC8-45D4-93CC-DD4581AA703A.thumb.png.a8349b0e8f726fb7b2a8c45e9c905f33.png4366F2CE-E653-485C-9116-7079E1FA6396.thumb.png.b42db55674a5abbb4619842dfb5f6244.pngCE6D826D-A0A0-4452-A1EA-8A2BE3528E30.thumb.png.73a93523f3aa2ba8bd95366f397d7fdf.png

Once we enter October my expectations for sustained dry conditions go rapidly out the window, we are entering what is traditionally the most disturbed third of the year. 

There are signs though in the longer range models may see a quieter spell, but with a southerly tracking jet most likely of the col variety, meaning fog and frost. In the meantime get ready for lots and lots of rain after what has been a dry September.

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Encouraging signs looking at this evening's models. Has really been nothing to comment on for days given unanimity on 10 days under an unmoving LP. 

Now GFS is somewhat consistently beginning to show other options featuring at least transient ridging from t168, and ECM is finally showing some signs of moving tonight. 

Long way to go, but at least some indications that it might be worth digging into some proper data again...

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Is this what is meteorologically termed a ‘channel low’.......?

75-80 mph gusts for the IOW possibly.

56E46728-9AD2-47E9-BFB9-2B954255A152.thumb.png.0fa73e99ee2e9843c69f2bee97977c6e.png

(Arpege   +57h  11am 2nd October)

 

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8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Is this what is meteorologically termed a ‘channel low’.......?

75-80 mph gusts for the IOW possibly.

56E46728-9AD2-47E9-BFB9-2B954255A152.thumb.png.0fa73e99ee2e9843c69f2bee97977c6e.png

(Arpege   +57h  11am 2nd October)

 

Looks like a mini monster!

ECM this morning has it a bit further south, but you could be looking at 90mph+ gusts from that feature for our friends in NW France if that comes off. UKMO Fax has it effecting the south coast/SW by Friday lunchtime:

image.thumb.png.7caa047f8672c8d44f6ff2da6f6dcb18.pngimage.thumb.png.0e799a56b1ccda933574a573a096f664.png

This run is unbelievably wet in the SW/W Wales, with 100-150mm of rain in the next 8 days. Pretty much the entire UK gets a soaking, with the majority seeing 50mm plus. 


 

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For those (like me) that really despise Autumn gales and torrential rain - perhaps something to hold on to:

image.thumb.png.5be58f1e7216bb02c3b5b6aa8eedc9eb.png

GFS pressure ensembles trending much higher once the first week of October is done. One to watch.
 

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Sadly though - the rise in AAM has been pushed back. Probably a result of more extensive blocking setting up and taking longer to shift than initially forecast:

28th September 00z forecast:
image.thumb.png.9d41328dd0d9f7378c96148bd0f0aaae.png

29th September 12z forecast:
image.thumb.png.5cfa136a8338dc36572c9f2fe7b1f2e0.png

Edited by mb018538
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2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Is this what is meteorologically termed a ‘channel low’.......?

75-80 mph gusts for the IOW possibly.

56E46728-9AD2-47E9-BFB9-2B954255A152.thumb.png.0fa73e99ee2e9843c69f2bee97977c6e.png

(Arpege   +57h  11am 2nd October)

 

I think the MO version shown by MB below yours would qualify if it was december!!!

Normally it requires an anticyclone to be sat just to the north of Scotland to back the winds to the east a little more and produce an elongation along the channel, to be perfect for a winter channel low. I'll give this one 8 out of 10.  It will bring massive amounts of rain though with its rounder appearance.

MIA.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Just browsing through the GEM 12z (ensembles) perturbations..there are actually some positive signs that high pressure could build in during the mid October period which would tie in with Exeter’s current thoughts regarding that timeframe..dare I say, a few gems in there 💎 💎 !😜:shok:☀️

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Edited by Jon Snow
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all i  say looking at the  models  is that its going to be very unpleasent  from now to deep lalla land , the next thing  people  will worrying about will be  the flooding!!

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On 29/09/2020 at 06:55, FetchCB said:

"Charts will cover the whole world, all types of weather situations including extreme events, and, very importantly, will also include probability-based information, providing guidance on forecast confidence" 

The move to open data appears to be at odds to other open data access where the access was to the data not the interpretation of the data. 

I wonder if this will pressurise the Met Office to follow suit 

Like I said - still none the wiser!  I have suspicion that the biggest change will be access to historical data rather than forecast ...I wouldn’t be getting too excited about what will be freely available.....

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8 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

Wow it’s quiet in here. No one interested about the high rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday?

Nope - the lack of posts show how interesting most people find days and days of wind and rain.....not very 😫

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In some ways it can surprise me how quiet it can get in here with these sorts of charts. Ok it may be less pleasant, but there's more weather to talk about than if it was just high pressure at this time of year.

Hoping I don't get stuck under a front all weekend but I do otherwise like mobility/variety and I'm finding myself looking at the models a lot more (in part to see potential rainfall amounts here), than if we were high pressure dominated at the moment.

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11 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

In some ways it can surprise me how quiet it can get in here with these sorts of charts. Ok it may be less pleasant, but there's more weather to talk about than if it was just high pressure at this time of year.

Hoping I don't get stuck under a front all weekend but I do otherwise like mobility/variety and I'm finding myself looking at the models a lot more (in part to see potential rainfall amounts here), than if we were high pressure dominated at the moment.

It's interesting from a meteorological point of view, for sure.....but I think most people look for weather that is more usable than interesting. Torrential rain and gale force winds just means people stay locked in their house and can't do anything outdoorsy (unless they are a bit mad!). No fun in looking forward to a weekend and seeing that you'll need to spend it in your house. Maybe that's just my view 😄

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