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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

I'm just drooling at these charts... look at all these possible scenarios. 🤤

All of these charts are taken from the 12z GFS ensembles - the most unreliable model out there!

gens-8-1-360.thumb.png.79b855b778b0d9c6edf702e1b2090e1b.png   gens-8-0-372.thumb.png.c6126ff74f41c3d3ae46493b8cdca3ba.png   gens-29-1-240.thumb.png.77842afe0d4cf52df4f6483f8663c12a.png   gens-29-0-204.thumb.png.e6b59e61e3be87acb92f26a944b25b14.png

Yep, more ensembles, more possibilities?  I think we may come to regret this in winter!!!

The ‘what do we do when the pub shuts’ run shows a persistent low, T 162, not nice, but this is Autumn after all:

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6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I find myself now in limbo weather wise . No heat  anymore ( unless there is a dramatic change ) but nothing yet for snow . I hope these cool / cold conditions for the time  of year does one but come mid November let the snow and ice chase begin . Of course signals will be well documented by many on here between now and then , I dip my hat to you before the Mad seasons commences 👍.

 

Yes, Mark, this is the part of the year I most dislike, summer gone, and winter a few months away.  But let us hope for some interesting cold winter weather this year, because without it, given government restrictions (I won’t comment on them in here), we will be in a right mess, with Covid happiest at +4C, pretty much the average UK winter temperature.  Cold dance needed!

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Morning , well if it’s autumn weather your after then your definitely gonna get it if the ECM is on the ball . Some really nasty storms incoming with severe gales . I say bring it on . The storm around day 7 is a beast . 

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Morning , well if it’s autumn weather your after then your definitely gonna get it if the ECM is on the ball . Some really nasty storms incoming with severe gales . I say bring it on . The storm around day 7 is a beast . 

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964mb impressive.

jet certainly looks buckled  at the moment.

northern blocking seems dominant at the moment.

jma 10hpa looks interesting to.

JN240-5.thumb.gif.e5647dda91fc574eedb50001c46b37ac.gif

mind you been here many times before.

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Christ the Euro might actually be wetter than last year.. Between days 4 and 10 it moves through at least four fronts and appears to be lining up another shortwave. Does build Arctic heights though while keeping the high far enough away that it would probably remain quite cool by day at least. Also a decent pattern for Siberian snowcover.

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There are some tentative signs from the GEFS 0z that conditions might become more settled towards mid October as per Exeter’s thoughts 💭 but certainly it does look 👀 like becoming very unsettled from the second half of next week..but it may not last to long beyond that?🧐😉..
Edit, for some reason these are yesterday’s 0z dammit!!..but I don’t care about that minor detail because I choose to believe the second half of October won’t be as vile as the 1st half..or third anyway!!!!!!!!!😁😜

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Yes,a disturbed spell of weather looks nailed on now...

The anti cyclone to our NE is going to mean lots of rain for us but I want to see it persist and pressure the fledgling vortex...

Might produce the goods into Nov/Dec...?

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53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes,a disturbed spell of weather looks nailed on now...

The anti cyclone to our NE is going to mean lots of rain for us but I want to see it persist and pressure the fledgling vortex...

Might produce the goods into Nov/Dec...?

Yes was looking at the nhp and thinking the same thing. The analogues I've seen if la nina persists do give a signal for a front loaded winter?very little sign of a West to east jet anytime soon

Edited by swfc
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32 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes was looking at the nhp and thinking the same thing. The analogues I've seen if la nina persists do give a signal for a front loaded winter?very little sign of a West to east jet anytime soon

La Nina will persist and strengthen,  how much it strengthens is an unknown at the moment.. 

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Well I made a right Horlick’s earlier today when I posted yesterday’s charts because I automatically assumed they would have been updated 24 hours later..it just shows you can’t assume anything..but here’s my second attempt!..and really, I can’t sugar coat it,  looking at the GEFS 12z mean for next Friday, you would assume (wow I’m assuming again:shok:) the only way is up from such a nadir and indeed there is eventually something of an improvement..for a time at least..but I’ve just had a butchers at the ECM 12z op and it really does become very unsettled indeed during the second half of next week onwards..so it looks like the unsettled face of autumn will be in full swing from next midweek. 🍂 ...anyway, onwards and upwards..or downwards as the case may be....it all gets us closer to winter!😁😜

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Not a pleasant set of model runs at the moment, a persistent theme emerging of a very unsettled period ahead, cyclonic conditions with the trough settling in situ over the UK, locked into place by heights to the SW and NE, low pressure circling around itself and lots of wind under a cool airmass once we get to Wednesday. Copious significant rainfall forecast for the opening days of October. Until then, a dry day tomorrow, atlantic back on Monday and milder for a short time.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Copious significant rainfall forecast for the opening days of October.

Is this enough to warrant any flood warnings? I haven’t seen any rainfall accumulation charts yet. 

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ECM showing 50-100mm of rain over the next 10 days in many areas. GFS concentrates this over Scotland....but you can be fairly sure there is a high flood risk coming up, as well as gale force winds. A very stormy and unsettled period incoming, and one I’m not looking forward to.

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Hey Gang, please don’t shoot the messenger..me..that would hurt!😜..the ECM 0z ensemble mean paints an increasingly unsettled outlook but on the face of it, it doesn’t look abnormally cool / cold!🤡
09C3BFAF-3270-47C2-9EF7-4FE6F342D854.thumb.gif.99dd6a67f0fbddf68d346e2c8fd4f993.gif8634EB6A-B5EA-4A74-86C4-C5933743E45B.thumb.gif.388b3978a19d1ec275a11cd92337becb.gifAB422706-7796-4992-9E08-B1540A47DBB1.thumb.gif.3063408319eaef6ca2c50844a787ded3.gifFA7A896D-C43F-4E6F-80A1-AEC3B4D37851.thumb.gif.ff463a94745549aae9591339958cc05a.gif7CDEEE65-6909-44A9-9CCD-8A71F5B3FD02.thumb.gif.c40ae46b349d5e6ed92c278e8a634266.gif4A14965D-CBF4-4F28-979D-1981223BB63E.thumb.gif.f3b502955e447644b1da6f6641d6067b.gif

 

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21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey Gang, please don’t shoot the messenger..me..that would hurt!😜..the ECM 0z ensemble mean paints an increasingly unsettled outlook but on the face of it, it doesn’t look abnormally cool / cold!🤡
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its clear across all models that the nw to se attack is very visible right now,

if it been mid November or early December there would be some wintry weather.

and im sure the longer range models have no idea on forward projections.

early buckled jet is always a good start although vortex is not matured  just yet.

but if this pattern continues could get very interesting moving forwards.

as for storms this could well be the most stormy since 1986.

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34 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey Gang, please don’t shoot the messenger..me..that would hurt!😜..the ECM 0z ensemble mean paints an increasingly unsettled outlook but on the face of it, it doesn’t look abnormally cool / cold!🤡
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Thank goodness for the bolded bit, Jon... At this time of year 'abnormally cool' is a synonym for 'dire'!

Edited by General Cluster
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500 mb anomaly update

Sunday 27 September 2020

All 3 show similar charts and are not that different from the charts 4-5 days ago= deep uk troughing with +ve heights to west and some mainly slight ridging, also marked ridging/+ve heights from n Europe/Russia across into Greenland.

Outlook=stormy at times, generally unsettled and on ‘cold’ side chiefly, this for 6-10 days and possibly longer

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

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Well no need to worry about outdoor mingling issues next weekend ... It's looking downright ugly.

Checked the ECM rainfall forecast, and it has 2 inches of rain falling for most of the UK between next Saturday and the following Tuesday.

Autumn welcomes us with very autumnal weather!

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Looking at the Gfs 6z operational we could be using the F word soon..no, not that F word silly!..Flooding!!!!!😜:help:...having said that, there is some improvement indicated longer term..for a time!:drunk:
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Edited by Jon Snow
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